08 May 2021 QB Rookie Rankings
2021 QB Rookie Rankings
I’m taking a look at the most important position in Football, and arguably the least important one for Fantasy. What do all of these landing spots mean, and how should you apply it to your Rookie Drafts. I only went six deep as of today for the Quarterbacks, because it’s a top heavy position, albeit a potentially great class. You’ve likely heard some talk down on the 2018 class, saying it didn’t turn out to be as ballyhooed as anticipated, but of the five first rounders that year, four are still starters. I think it was plenty good, and this one has some great parallels. These will definitely change between now and the start of the season, but we need a starting point, and this is it. If you have any specific questions, find me on twitter @PeoplezPen. I’ll note, these are just straight rankings without any filters placed on them for Super-flex, TE Premium, PPR, or any scoring specifics. I am in leagues of all types, with the max being 55 man full IDP rosters with 11 starters on offense, where we have 7 round drafts that run deep. I know there are a bunch of these leagues in existence, so some of these guys might be off your radar, but not for everyone. Going to keep this list to just six, because quite frankly, there are only six that really have a shot at anything from my perspective.
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1. Trevor Lawrence – Jacksonville
Not sure what exactly needs to be said here. Even if he is the biggest bust of our lifetimes, this has to be the QB1. Cliché as it may be, he literally checks every box.
2. Trey Lance – San Francisco
As a Jets fan, after the crying over losing on Lawrence subsided, it was on to who was QB2. I wanted to profile QBs in depth, started with Lance, and he basically set the bar for the rest of my viewing. A lot was made of the level of competition, the limited games and experience, yada yada yada. But, Lance has been my QB2 from the beginning, and his draft capital justified that. In addition to being the best running QB since Lamar Jackson, Lance does things throwing the ball that remind me of Kyler Murray. He has a powerful arm that has no limitations on distance, and his accuracy was the best of film I saw. He puts the ball where only his receiver is going to get it, and those non-existent interceptions were not by accident. He now gets maybe the best offensive mind in the business to tutor him. The sky is the limit, and it could start as soon as Week 1.
3. Justin Fields – Chicago
There honestly should be no reason Fields created such controversy. It wasn’t his fault either. We knew the name, and how could we not with him being on the national stage so frequently. It’s the same as knowing who Ian Book is. His numbers are prolific. He does everything right. There is not much to knock on Fields, but he just may never have been the second best QB in a deep class. That doesn’t mean he isn’t a first rounder, or potential All Pro. There is no reason not to like, trust, or want Fields for your real team, or fantasy one.
4. Zach Wilson – New York Jets
This is where things get dicey. In all reality, Wilson is at the end after Mac Jones in my sorting of the “Big 5” this year. But, he has center stage, the franchise is actually supporting him, and he will have every chance to prove he is the goods. I just happen to not be in love with what I saw, which was someone who took way too many unnecessary chances. Of course these are things that can be corrected, and hopefully will be, but right now he is in for a rude awakening. I personally feel his numbers were masked by some terrific wide receiver play, and multiple dropped interceptions from opposing defenses. He has the arm talent and strength to be an elite passer, but he comes with the most risk. It isn’t about playing it safe either, because I don’t think his ceiling is any higher than the two listed above him. I just think he has the most to lose. As a Jet fan, I need to be wrong. Buyer beware.
5. Mac Jones – New England
Well, the hooded genius finally did it. And, if you think he picked Mac Jones just to be contrarian, I can assure you Bill Belichick would not make a move just to appease the onlookers. Mac Jones can ball! Period. (Or maybe exclamation mark). Yes, he had a ridiculous offense to work in. He also put up the singular best passing completion percentage season in collegiate history. Whatever you want to say about his surroundings, he did it. He also was next in line to not one, but two starting QBs in the NFL. Outside of the Oklahoma Sooners, when has that ever happened? And it is ironic, because Jalen Hurts is the common thread between the two schools. That’s a rabbit hole for a different article for a different day. It is true New England has a bunch of Post-Covid starters returning, and should be dramatically improved with the talent in the building. I do believe in Cam Newton still, and he has some sneaky upside this season, and he is still the starter as of today. He has heat on him to perform well though, and this doesn’t have to be Jones’ team for 2021. Don’t think this is a long term road block, and don’t doubt his abilities. You don’t have to be the first to get Mac, but don’t just ignore him either.
6. Davis Mills – Houston
There was some talk leading up to the draft, that a record number of QBs could be taken in the first round, with Davis Mills being the wildcard. It didn’t happen, but the Texans did swoop in to grab him in the third round, where he was the eight signal caller chosen. This is extremely significant for several reasons. The elephant in the room is the Deshaun Watson situation, which to my knowledge, is looking more and more bleak for 2021 with every passing day. In fact, it was less than a week ago that an Adam Schefter report came out saying Watson may not play at all in 2021. The bigger impact in my mind, is that the Texans had limited capital in this year’s draft, and their first pick wasn’t until the third round when they made Davis their first pick at 67th overall. They only had a total of 5 picks, and still made QB a pressing need, knowing they could probably wait it out and get a player like Jamie Newman. Whether you think Tyrod Taylor is still a full season starter or not, they made the decision to have a QB of the future in house, backed up by several people viewing Mills as a first round talent who fell because of an injury riddled past. In addition to shoring up their QB situation, they added a personal favorite in receiver Nico Collins of Michigan, who is this year’s version of Chase Claypool. Big, fast, underutilized in college, and capable of so much more if given the targets. And if that weren’t enough, they made their third pick (147th), another popular catching option who slipped, in Miami Tight End Brevin Jordan. All of this adds up to Davis Mills potentially finding himself in as lucrative position as Lawrence, Wilson, and what you would presume to be Trey Lance, and at worst in the same situation as Fields, and Jones, serving as the understudy. What’s not to like about that?!
Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (23rd in 2018) & Baseball (7th in 2018), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 18 years and counting.