27 Jun AFC East Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on AFC East Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
AFC East Projections
This is perhaps the most perplexing division to me. A healthy dose of potential impact making rookies, including two QBs, a bunch of players returning from injuries and opt outs, and one potential Super Bowl champion. There is a lot to like from a football standpoint, but this is easily my least favorite place to look for fantasy help. Not a single running back projected to surpass 1,000 yards, and only one receiver getting over the mark. There is a lot that could easily play out different, but the odds are not in favor here.
The most intriguing storyline lies in New England, where I have made two entirely separate projections with versions for Cam Newton and Mac Jones (only Newton’s is posted for now). I can’t ignore the draft capital of Jones, but my suspicion is that barring a complete meltdown (or injury), this will be Cam’s job. If thats the case, we are in line for what should be a season of new career highs in passing. My belief is that for the 2021 NFL season, Mac Jones will purely be an insurance policy.
If you are looking for rookies, it would be hard to ignore this division, as two of the most explosive Wide Receivers now call it home. Jaylen Waddle might have the highest ceiling of anyone in this class, Ja’Marr Chase included, and Elijah Moore has been consistently wowing people. Keep this in mind… there is a video from draft night with A.J. Brown essentially telling Moore he looks up to him as the better player. An already established All Pro deferring to Elijah Moore. Let that sink in.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Josh Allen (QB 2), Zack Moss (RB 41), Stefon Diggs (WR 3), Gabriel Davis (WR 60)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Tua Tagovailoa (QB 21), Jaylen Waddle (WR 48), Mike Gesicki (TE 15)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Cam Newton (QB 22), Damien Harris (RB 22), Nelson Agholor (WR 61)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Zach Wilson (QB <30), Michael Carter (RB 53), Corey Davis (WR 50), Elijah Moore (WR 62)
- Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
- A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (25th in 2018, 30th in 2019) & Baseball (7th in 2018 & 2019, 9th in 2020), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.