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This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on AFC North Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.

AFC North Projections

Meet the second most challenging division in the league, after the NFC West. This division is absolutely loaded with playmakers, almost to it’s own detriment. A lot hinges on the health of Ben Roethlisberger for Pittsburgh, especially with the shambles their offensive line is in, but the offense has too many weapons to not be useful. The addition of Najee Harris is the balance that was needed, after recent stop gap rushers wore their welcome. Cleveland didn’t add much in the way of offense, but they did add some vital role players in Demetric Felton and speedster Anthony Schwartz, who can help create space if Odell Beckham remains a concern. Baltimore may have done the best job in surrounding Lamar Jackson with even more options, but the best of the bunch will continue to be Marquise Brown.

The Cincinnati Bengals are the most exciting though, and I anticipate a full recovery for Joe Burrow, and a Pro Bowl season. I am now all in on the Ja’Marr Chase hype train, and have him finishing in the Top 5 for all Wide Receivers. Even with Chase set to flourish, there is plenty of meat on the bone left for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. All systems are a go!

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Lamar Jackson (QB 5), J.K. Dobbins (RB 15), Gus Edwards (RB 43), Marquise Brown (WR 42), Mark Andrews (TE 5)

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Baker Mayfield (QB 17), Nick Chubb (RB 7), Kareem Hunt (RB 23), Odell Beckham (WR 25)

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Ben Roethlisberger (QB 24), Najee Harris (RB 17), Diontae Johnson (WR 22), Chase Claypool (WR 30), Juju Smith-Schuster (WR 33)

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Joe Burrow (QB 12), Joe Mixon (RB 13), Ja’Marr Chase (WR 27), Tee Higgins (WR 28), Tyler Boyd (WR 34)