Best NFL Lines for Week 6 – Kansas City Chiefs
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Matt Midlikowski’s “Best NFL Lines.”
Throughout this article, an in-depth analysis of hand-selected games will identity the best NFL bets each week.
The trend watch section offers the most important historical trends for each game.
Finally, Matt touts one side of the game in the opinion section.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, O/U 55.5)
Week 7’s Houston Texans against Kansas City Chiefs game is the perfect example of knowing when to bet certain NFL lines. The earliest lines had the Chiefs favored by as many as 8.5 points. Houston recently scored 53 points against the Atlanta Falcons, and Patrick Mahomes tweaked his already-iffy ankle during that game.
Nearly all of the opening action came in on Houston. Texans bettors certainly wanted to get their money in right away. Chiefs’ bettors were better waiting, as the line fell all the way to modest 4.5-point favorites.
These betting opportunities are present every week, so make sure to check those online sports books to see if there are NFL lines to take advantage of.
It is hard to ignore the 426 passing yards and 5 touchdowns that Deshaun Watson put up last week. Those numbers are so shocking that most bettors will fall into the potential trap of assuming Houston has figured things out offensively. While they are a top-10 offense in terms of yards and points scored, it is unlikely that last week is duplicated this week.
Atlanta failed to record a sack against Houston. This marks just the second time in Watson’s 27-game career that he wasn’t sacked at least once. He has hit the dirt nearly four times per game over his career, so last week was a true statistical anomaly. Unless there has been legitimate improvement on Houston’s offensive line, regression tells us that Watson should face significant pressure on Sunday.
Kansas City doesn’t have an individual defender with more than three sacks this season, but their offense tends to turn the opposing offense into a one-dimensional unit. Defenses playing with the lead are often playing at an advantage. In general, the Chiefs are better against the pass than the run. They’ve allowed a rather pedestrian 86.0 average QBR through five games.
The Indianapolis Colts provided tape on how to beat the Mahomes-led Chiefs. Kansas City limped through most of the final two quarters, but Mahomes still hit 320 passing yards. In Week 7, he goes to work against the 25th-ranked pass defense.
The Texans have seen Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt combine for nine sacks this season, but allowed 270 passing yards per game. Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill are unavailable for Sunday, but Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle filled in nicely, averaging at least 15.5 yards per catch. Travis Kelce hits that average as well, leading the team with 28 catches and 439 yards.
The Houston Texans are 1-6 against the spread in their last 7 games against an opponent with a winning record. They are 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games immediately following an against-the-spread win.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 home games against teams at .500 or better. They are 5-2 against the spread in their last 7 games against AFC opponents.
I tweeted that the Houston Texans’ fans should bet this game early. There is a lot of overreaction potential given what went down last week with both teams. I think Houston comes down to earth a bit.
The Kansas City Chiefs should trend back toward their average of 29.6 points per game. Mahomes was back on the practice field as of Wednesday and not in danger of missing the game.
I’m not scared to lay 4.5 points on an offense that is still arguably the best in the league, even while missing some key contributors. Kansas City is weak against the run, but I think the Chiefs would love to see Houston give it to Carlos Hyde all day.
Neither team is good at time-of-possession, meaning Houston will be playing a style that Kansas City has nearly perfected. The Chiefs win 29-24. That score hits the under, and I am bucking the public trend there with 66% of bets coming in on the over.