The Pick 6: CFB DFS Week 2

DFS Value Plays & GPP Pivots

by Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski)

With one full week in the books, DFS enthusiasts finally have a sample of data to examine. Week 2 sets up with a number of projected high scoring affairs on the 11-game main slate. With that said, plenty of scoring should ensue and here are a number of players likely to contribute. Pricing used is for DraftKings.

Adrian Martinez ($7,000) – Nebraska

For anyone looking for a discount dual-threat quarterback, look no further than Adrian Martinez. Martinez disappointed last week, with 178 passing yards and another 6 yards on ground in a surprisingly tight matchup against South Alabama. However, Martinez showed elite rushing ability last season with 629 yards and 8 scores on the ground.

As for Week 2, Nebraska finds themselves in a matchup against a Colorado team in a game projected to hit 65-points. This not only remains the highest game total on the main slate, but Nebraska comes in as 4-point favorites. With a small line, this game offers enough shootout potential to take down a GPP.

Further improving matter, Colorado allowed 505 total yards to Colorado State last week. With Nebraska’s up-tempo scheme, Martinez looks like a supreme value this weekend.

Zander Horvath ($4,800) – Purdue

Following Tario Fuller’s season-ending injury, Zander Horvath stepped up to handle 22 touches in Purdue’s Week 1 loss to Nevada. Shockingly coming in at $4,800, Horvath looks like a lock-and-load option at running back.

In addition to the 22 touches, Horvath handled a massive 88% of Purdue’s running back touches in Week 1, including 19 carries and 3 targets. This week, Purdue enters the week favored by 7-points at home against Vanderbilt. Last week, Georgia absolutely annihilated Vandy on the ground for 325 total rushing yards, boding well for Horvath’s outlook in this same spot.

Also working in Horvath’s favor, Purdue remains one of the fastest teams in all of college football, running 82 total plays last week. As a 7-point, home favorite in a plum draw, Horvath looks like a smash play in Week 2.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn ($6,100) – Vanderbilt

On the opposite site of the ball Ke’Shawn Vaughn also appears too cheap. The lone bright spot in a 30-6 loss to Georgia, Vaughn notched 98 yards on 18 touches.

Heading into Week 2, Vaughn looks like to see additional opportunities with Jamauri Wakefield expected to miss this game. While Wakefield only saw 1 target and 1 carry his absence simply adds confidence to Vaughn as a play.

Looking at last week’s matchup, Purdue showed a distinct vulnerability to pass catching running backs, allowing Nevada’s Toa Taua to recorded 8 catches for 64 yards. Vaughn himself saw 5 targets out of the backfield and should exploit this weakness on the Purdue side.

After a disappointing outing last week, Vaughn may go overlooked in a sneaky solid matchup against Purdue.

Trishton Jackson ($3,400) – Syracuse

Coming off a 24-0 win over Liberty, Syracuse takes on a much tougher Week 2 opponent in Maryland. While Maryland allowed only 68 total yards last week, they did so against Howard. In what projects as a closer matchup, Trishton Jackson comes in as a supreme value on the Syracuse side for only $3,400.

While Jackson recorded a mere 3 catches for 21 yards, it was not due to a lack of opportunity. On the day, Jackson saw 9 targets and actually led Syracuse in this category. Coming over as a Michigan State transfer, Jackson remains atop of the Syracuse wide receiver depth chart.

Importantly, Syracuse remained committee to the pass despite their wide margin of victory. Quarterback Tommy DeVito attempted 35 passes on the day, while Syracuse passed almost 46% of the time. Both Syracuse and Maryland pushed the pace of play in Week 1 as well, with 81 and 77 plays respectively.

With a little bit of positive regression, Jackson should easily hit value at $3,400.

Tee Higgins ($7,300) – Clemson

Looking to the chalkiest game on the slate, Clemson’s Tee Higgins remains a value even at $7,300. A threat to score at any moment on the field, Higgins saw a team-leading 9 targets last week (starters were pulled in the third quarter).

Now facing Texas A&M, Higgins likely plays a full compliment of snaps against a worthy opponent. As it stands, this Clemson-Texas A&M matchup has a 64.5 over/under, which ranks second on this slate. Favored by 17.5-points, Clemson easily has the highest implied team total altogether (41), creating multiple scoring opportunities for this offense.

Importantly, the matchup favors Clemson pass catchers as well. Last week, A&M allowed just 8 yards on the ground, but 211 through the air. With ownership likely gravitating toward Rondale Moore and Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins quietly remains worth paying up for.

Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,100) – Nebraska

For those looking for a cheap stack with Adrian Martinez, both Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,100) and JD Spielman ($4,700) enter Week 2 shockingly underpriced. Specifically, Nebraska showed a willingness to force the ball into their freshman’s hands (Robinson).

Last week, Robinson led all Nebraska pass catchers with 8 targets on the day. For the sake of comparison, Spielman only saw 3 targets. Mentioned above, Colorado looked susceptible on the defensive side of the ball. Last week, they allowed 374 passing yards to Colorado State.

Positively for Robinson, Nebraska also showed a willingness to get creative with his touches. In addition to his 8 targets, Robinson saw 4 carries on the ground. With a higher floor than his $4,100 price indicates, Robinson looks like a smash play this weekend.

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