Millionaire Maker Lineups, Part 3

Quarterback

by Alec Aubry (@FantasySpuds)

This quarterback related strategy will come at no surprise for most NFL DFS players, which is Stacking a Pass Catcher(s) with your Quarterback. This strategy was found to be used on every one of the seventeen Millionaire Maker Grand Prize lineups, with only one exception. This exception was Lamar Jackson in Week 12 as he took on the Raiders at home. The reason for this exception is Jackson’s massive rushing and carry totals compared to his minimal passing upside making his receivers much less than ideal to own for any fantasy purposes.

So why is this strategy so heavily used and successful? It comes down to nearly all points scored by said receiver, will also translate to points scored by the quarterback. This in statistics is referred to as positive correlation. Where one factor goes up, so will the other. This strategy makes for a great way to rack up fantasy points fast. A quick example of this would be a receiver catching a ten-yard touchdown. This would tack on 8 DK (PPR) points to the receiver’s total score. It would also add 4.4 DK points to the quarterback’s total score. Thus, making this one play worth 12.4 DK points with both players in your lineup.

This strategy is an absolute must, no if’s, and’s or but’s about it. Do not try to be cute and refuse to stack your QB. Just don’t.

Trend

The very interesting trend found within the Quarterback position has a particular focus on cost. The average cost at Quarterback in these seventeen lineups came out to be $5,847. Of the seventeen Quarterbacks found in this sample, only ONE was priced above $6,500. This lone soul was Patrick Mahomes at $7,600 in Week 13 at OAK scoring 33 DK Points at 19.90% ownership. If we want to dip even lower, there were still twelve Quarterbacks who stayed at or under the price range of $6,100 that still made this list of seventeen. This itself does not SCREAM spending down at Quarterback is the way to go. I would say it’s more of a whisper. The next paragraph will SCREAM spend down at Quarterback.

Adding up the DK Points scored by the eight Quarterbacks priced $6,000 or higher totaled 272.78 DK Points and averaged 34.10 DK Points. Adding up the scores of the nine Quarterbacks priced $5,700 or lower (no Quarterbacks were priced at $5,800 or $5,900 in these lineups) totaled 319.96 DK points and averaged 35.55 DK points. This average was a full point and a half higher than the higher priced Quarterbacks. That one and a half points might seem insignificant. What makes this stat significant is factoring in that you can save roughly $700 in salary cap to put elsewhere in your line up. The fact that you can use that extra $700 elsewhere and have a Quarterback that will put up the same numbers, if not better, is huge in my book. I’m not saying don’t ever spend up at Quarterback. The point here is the numbers clearly show us that we can find blow up performances further down the price list. Which in turn can help us spend up for elite options at other positions. Don’t be compelled to stay at the upper echelon of QBs. If you dig deep enough you may find your diamond in the rough at Quarterback.

Fun Facts #11 and #12

In this combo fun fact, I took the top third (top 6) QBs regarding ownership % of the seventeen Millionaire Maker winning lineups, and compared them to their counterparts of the bottom third (bottom 6) QBs regarding ownership %.

Fun Fact #11: Dr. Seuss’ Low Owned High Points High Owned Low Points

The three highest QB scoring performances of the seventeen lineups came from the group of lowest owned QBs: Week 4 Mitch Trubisky at 1.30% owned with 46.46 DK Points, Week 16 Aaron Rodgers at 3.10% owned with 45.88 DK Points and Ryan Fitzpatrick at 1.30% owned with 45.28 DK Points.

Looking at the other side of things, three of the four lowest QB scoring performances of the seventeen lineups were amongst the group of highest owned QBs: Week 12 Lamar Jackson at 14.80% owned with 22.22 DK Points, Week 8 Jared Goff at 12.00% owned with 26.5 DK Points and Ryan Fitzpatrick at 12.60% owned with 26.02 DK Points.

Fun Fact #12: Less Is More

If you haven’t been convinced yet that paying down at QB is a reliable strategy, this might very well be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. Taking a closer look at the total DK Points scored by each group, the lowest owned group of QBs combined for 232.7 DK Points, while the highest owned group of QBs combined for only 184.42 DK Points. Diving further into these groups of QBs, the average price of the lowest owned QB group was $5,450, while the highest owned QB group averaged a higher cost of $6,167. In comparison, the lowest owned QBs outperformed their counterparts by 48.28 DK Points and were still an average of $717 cheaper. (Side Note: If you remember earlier on in this article when I mentioned the saving of $700 to put elsewhere in your lineup, this is what I was referring to. I wasn’t just pulling that number out of thin air). Once again, the numbers have shown us paying down at Quarterback is a strategy we are going to want to incorporate into our week in and week out DFS blueprint.

Fun Fact #13: Strong Start

Did you know that the first four weeks of the 2018 season provided four of the top five QB scores for the entire season? It’s true! Here’s a look at those four performances below.

Fun Fact #14: Mitch Trubisky the Top Performing MM Series QB

Coming from a Packer’s fan this fun fact title seems odd, but there’s no other way to say it. Mitch Trubisky dominated the middle of the season. Trubisky owned three of the top seven QB performances in these seventeen elite lineups, including the best QB performance of the year! He was also one of only two QBs to make this list of seventeen three times, the other was Matt Ryan.

Fun Fact #15: NFC QBs over AFC QBs?!

To end this article, I’ll share an odd head scratching fun fact. I really did count twice because of how lopsided this comparison is. Of the seventeen lineups that won the Millionaire Maker contest in 2018, thirteen of them used NFC QBs. The lone AFC QBs were Patrick Mahomes in Weeks 2 & 13, Brock Osweiler in Week 6 and Lamar Jackson in Week 12. All three completely different breeds of QBs.

That’ll do it for this piece of the Millionaire Maker Series! Check back soon as I’ll be dissecting the Running Back position in Part Four. From myself, and Expand the Boxscore, thanks for reading and keep sifting through the numbers! #WeGotStats

No Comments

Post A Comment