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The Pick 6 Week 4

College Football CFB DFS Value Plays & GPP Pivots

by Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski)

Now entering conference play, College Football brings a slew of competitive games in Week 4. With a number of ranked opponents on the slate, DFS grinders face a few difficult decisions. With that said, here are a few DFS value plays and GPP pivots ahead of Week 4.

Kenny Pickett ($5,900) – Pittsburgh

Unlike most slates, the Week 4 DraftKings’ main slate lacks elite dual threat quarterbacks. Sure, Kellen Mond and Kelly Bryant dabble on the ground, but very few offer slate breaking ability. Looking at cheaper quarterbacks with elevated passing attempts, Kenny Pickett looks like a strong target.

At first glance, Pickett lead the entire slate in pass attempts at 129. This comes from an offense running 76.3 plays per game with a 59.8% pass rate. While UCF plays solid defense, they remain vulnerable through the air. So far this year, they’ve allowed 167.3 passing yards to opposing offenses, but have faced Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, and Stanford. Importantly, Pittsburgh enters Week 4 as 12-point underdogs with a 61-point game total, pointing to a pass friendly environment.

Lamical Perine ($6,500) – Florida

Playing without Feleipe Franks and favored by 14-points at home against Tennessee, Lamical Perine looks like a solid play in Week 4. So far this season, Perine has 49 opportunities in the running game, including 15 targets. Seeing only 34 carries to start the year, Florida projects to place additional weight on the run in Week 4.

So far this season, Florida has thrown the ball at a 52.7% rate. While Franks’ injury likely means more rushing attempts, so does a matchup against Tennessee. The Volunteers have allowed 157 rushing yard per game to open the year and over 100 rushing yards to Georgia State, BYU, and Chanttanooga as teams. With matchup and volume working in his favor, Perine offers a cheap pivot away from this week’s stud backs.

Elijah Collins ($4,600) – Michigan State

After playing Week 3 at the minimum price, Elijah Collins remains too cheap for a Week 4 draw against Northwestern. Despite the price, Michigan State’s inefficient offense and 38-point game total remain major concerns. However, Michigan State listed Collins as the starter on the team’s depth chart and fed the back 19 carries in Week 3. Volume trumps all in DFS and Collins projects to see that.

Looking at Northwestern’s defense, they provide a sneaky good matchup for Collins and the Michigan State rushing attack. So far this season, they’ve allowed 171 rushing yards per game, including 144 yards to UNLV’s Charles Williams and 97 yards to Stanford’s Cameron Scarlett. Now the Spartan’s feature back, Collins allows plenty of upward mobility to jam in multiple studs in Week 4.

Maurice Ffrench ($5,800) – Pittsburgh

With Pittsburgh now running an up-tempo, pass-first offense, Maurice Ffrench makes a perfect stacking partner with Kenny Pickett. To start the season, Maurice French has an absurd 40 targets to his name, leading the entire slate. This has led to 24 catches for 235 yards in only three games.

Noted above, Pittsburgh new pass-friendly offense matches up well against a UCF defense more susceptible to an aerial attack. Ffrench notably runs out of the slot for Pittsburgh, creating matchup nightmares for opposing defenses. Leading the slate in targets at only $5,800 Ffrench looks like a strong play on Saturday’s main slate.

Jaylen Wadde ($4,800) – Alabama

Playing Alabama receivers in DFS compares closely to playing roulette. Aside from Jerry Jeudy, the ancillary receivers all see low volume, but at least one pops up for a big game each week. This week, Jaylen Waddle finds himself priced well below his teammates at $4.8k. Seeing 11 targets to open the year, Waddle ranks only slightly behind Henry Ruggs at 14.

Looking back to last week, Waddle remained the odd man out, seeing only 1 target. However, Bama now draws a matchup against Southern Miss, potentially meaning more volume for Alabama’s ancillary pass catchers. Against Duke in Week 1 and New Mexico State in Week 2, Wadde recorded target counts of 6 and 4. Alabama easily has the highest implied team total on the slate, making Waddle a solid GPP dart throw.

Chatarius Atwell ($4,400) – Louisville

Looking at bargain bin receivers, Chatarius Atwell stands out as a player with the potential to command volume. So far this season, Atwell leads Louisville in targets (19), and saw 11 targets in a competitive game against Notre Dame. While Jawon Pass remains questionable for Week 4 with a foot injury, Malik Cunningham showed competence in a victory over Western Kentucky last week.

Looking at Week 4’s matchup, the quarterback situation shouldn’t matter too much against a porous Florida State defense. So far this year, Florida State has allowed 314.3 passing yards per game, while facing the likes of Boise State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Virginia. Currently this game sits with a point total of 61, indicating a fantasy friendly environment for those involved.