21 Jun NFC North Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on NFC North Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
NFC North Projections
I’m not finding more than one team above .500 in the NFC North, with the Green Bay Packers as the lone dominant factor. Of course this hinges entirely on how the Aaron Rodgers saga unfolds, to which I still think he is back in Lambeau. While the other teams may not factor into the NFL standings, they do offer a bunch of appealing fantasy options. The biggest surprise might be Jared Goff, who I think will thrive in Detroit. There isn’t a dominant star receiver, but a bevy of balance with upside, and I think they will be trailing a ton leading to added stats. Yes, I have projected Goff to flirt with passing for over 5,000 yards in a 17 game season.
Amongst the rookies, Amari Rodgers stands out as a player who could provide unadvertised value in his first season. He is from a program that has had success developing receivers, he has been on the big stage, and if Rodgers is back in town I believe he will be looking often at his newest teammate.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Aaron Rodgers (QB 8), Aaron Jones (RB 10), Davante Adams (WR 2)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Kirk Cousins (QB 18), Dalvin Cook (RB 2), Justin Jefferson (WR 9), Adam Thielen (WR 19), Irv Smith (TE 18)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): David Montgomery (RB 19), Allen Robinson (WR 11), Darnell Mooney (WR 56)
If you were caught by surprise with the Bears trading Anthony Miller to Houston, don’t be. Mooney was always the WR2 for Chicago, and all the trade did was solidify that. We really only think of Miller because of the opportunity his draft capital produced, but he has never played up to those expectations. A fresh start can hopefully help that. Mooney doesn’t get much of a bump at all with these updated projections, as he was already set in this role. The player that this impacts the most is new rookie Dazz Newsome, who was the fourth member of the vaunted North Carolina quartet. Reports out of Chicago have been highly favorable with the rookie impressing everyone, and all this transaction does is imply the Bears feel convinced he is their future and ready to be the third option right out of the gate. He should be on the back end of your redraft radar, and prioritized starting around the WR 10 mark of rookie/dynasty drafts.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Jared Goff (QB 32), D’Andre Swift (RB 16), Tyrell Williams (WR <75), T.J. Hockenson (TE 5)
A jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. Has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces. A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football & Baseball, avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.