14 Jul The Opportunity Analysis – A. J. Brown
The Opportunity Analysis | A. J. Brown
- Available Targets: 103
- Potential Drop-Backs: +6
- Total New Opportunities: 109
- Opportunities Analysis Rank: 14
After the Titans’ Week 11 bye, A.J. Brown morphed into a wide receiver one down the stretch. He led all wide receivers in fantasy points in half-point PPR. During these final six regular season games, Brown posted top eight numbers in both target share and WOPR while leading all wide receivers in point per snap and point per opportunity (min. 50% snaps).
Even with this high level of production, Brown was still outside the top 20 in targets during that span. Brown’s otherworldly efficiency is not sustainable, as his 4.27 fantasy points per touch was well over one point higher than any other player. Brown’s efficiency might be going down but his volume is sure to rise.
The Titans averaged just 25 attempts per game (16 game pace of 400) during that 6-game stretch, which is well below their 16-game pace the last four seasons of 471.
This inevitable bump in volume coupled with Brown’s 26% target share down the stretch should allow him to see a significant increase in targets in 2020.
This brings us to the opportunity analysis of the Titans, a team with 109 available opportunities heading into 2020. The 109 opportunities are not a lot compared to the other teams we have highlighted in the analysis, but when you dive into where they are coming from and who can capitalize on them it is clear that Brown will be on top of that list.
The key departures include veterans Tajae Sharpe (35 targets), Delanie Walker (31 targets), and Dion Lewis (32 targets). These veterans are set to be replaced on the depth chart by mostly unknown younger players with minimal involvement from 2019.
This provides A.J Brown a great opportunity to capitalize on his already high target share as these vacated targets from 2019 will most likely be filled by the key starters from last season.
If we apply the the projected drop backs from the opportunity analysis to Brown’s target share once he became the full-time starter, he should easily see a 16-game pace of 115 targets.
This is a very realistic outcome as if we add 26% of 109 available opportunities to Brown’s 84 targets from 2019, Brown will easily get over the 110 mark.
Finally, we did see Brown struggle last season vs top corner backs as Marshon Lattimore (1 reception for 34 yards), Stephon Gilmore (1 reception for 4 yards) and the Ravens defense (1 reception for 9 yards). However, his early 2020 season schedule includes Denver (Chris Harris Jr. gone), Jacksonville, and Minnesota. The key to these match-ups is none of those teams have an elite corner on the roster.
Currently going as the WR15 in the fourth round A.J. Brown is primed to get off to a hot start in 2020. This should help him return value at his price this season.