17 Jul The Opportunity Analysis – Marquise Brown
The Opportunity Analysis | Marquise Brown
- Available Targets: 74
- Potential Drop-Backs: +38
- Total New Opportunities: 112
- Opportunities Analysis Rank: 13
Heading into 2019, Marquise Brown was not 100% after suffering a Lisfranc injury his final season in college. Regardless, Brown flashed WR1 ability with a knack for the end zone in his first season. This was on display in the playoff loss versus Tennessee where Brown posted seven receptions for 126 yards on 11 targets.
Brown led all Ravens players in routes in his rookie season despite the limited off-season. That volume didn’t lead to much consistency, but he was still inside the top 30 in yards per route run while posting a solid 8.2 yards per target.
This off-season Brown had a minor procedure to remove a screw in his foot which should allow him to return to full health. A key element for Brown is the way he is utilized. Last season he saw nearly 35% of his snaps from the slot, which should help him avoid tougher match-ups on the outside vs. top corners.
Also, Brown led all Ravens players in deep targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns while seeing 23.7% of his targets travel at least 20 or more yards downfield. “Hollywood” may be diminutive in stature, but Brown was still heavily utilized in the red zone. He was second on the team to Mark Andrews in red zone targets, end zone targets and touchdowns in both categories.
The second part to why we should be high on Brown is the potential infusion of pass volume for the Ravens next season. After posting the second lowest drop backs in the NFL in 2019 at 510, the Ravens are calling for an additional 38 more drop-backs in the opportunity analysis.
This is a conservative number as prior to 2019 Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman’s teams averaged 557 drop-backs per season.
In a very similar situation in San Francisco, Roman oversaw an offense in 2013 that had just 503 drop-backs. That 49ers team also featured quarterback Colin Kaepernick as a runner. The very next season the number of drop-backs the 49ers had jumped to 587 while still seeing a slight boost in Kaepernick’s rushing attempts.
Historical drop-back data does show that there should be a spike in volume as well. Since 2013, eight teams had under 525 drop-backs. Six of those teams saw a significant increase the following year with an average of 89 more per team.
This spike in volume will allow Mark Andrews to continue to be a key cog in this offense while letting Brown to make a leap in fantasy production. Currently going at ADP pick 66 in the sixth round, Brown is a premier WR3 pick with upside heading into 2020.