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2020 Fantasy Football Bust

Rob Gronkowski: 2020 Fantasy Football Bust

We’re back with another edition of 2020 fantasy football bust series. Last edition we hit on the Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This time we’re going to Tampa Bay and looking at a TE who came out of retirement to reunite with his quarterback: Rob Gronkowski.

Out of every player mentioned in this series, Gronkowski seems to be the most obvious player to bust this year in Fantasy Football. He’s older, he’s been out of the league for over a calendar year, he’s in a new system, and there’s two younger, better players at the same position as him.

While the Bucs and fans may expect to receive ‘prime’ Rob Gronkowski, the chances of that happening are slim. The success of players older than 30 who have come back from retirement has not been good, despite some of them being elite players.

To make matters worse, Gronk has only played more than 15 games twice in his NFL career.

This isn’t the Patriots Rob Gronkowski or a team that would utilize him as their second receiving option. This Bucs team is better all across the board, including at the TE position; to the point where Gronk may find himself as the odd man out going forward; and that seems as if it could be the case.

Peter King has suggested that Gronkowski might be the third tight end in Tampa going into the season, and getting a snap count to suggest as much also. With the Bucs and head coach Bruce Arians being more focused on winning football games instead of fantasy football, this approach makes sense as well.

Given Gronk’s injury history and the likelihood of Tampa Bay making the playoffs, having a healthy Gronk down the stretch could provide the best outlook for the team. While a playoff Gronk doesn’t help fantasy football owners, it will benefit the Bucs greatly.

The main reason that Rob Gronkowski will be a bust to me is his ADP. He is currently being drafted as the TE10, ranked 11th, and is going at #72 overall on average. If this were a couple years ago, this would be a steal. Unfortunately it’s not, and the players that he’s ahead of make this a head-scratching number.

Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper, Blake Jarwin, and T.J. Hockenson are all being drafted after Rob Gronkowski. All of these players (minus Goedert – but we’ve seen how Philly plays multiple TE sets), are the ‘main’ guy going forward at TE.

If it’s earlier than round 10 in your fantasy draft and you’re thinking about drafting Rob Gronkowski do yourself the favor and do not do it. Almost anyone at the position will give you better value for their ADP, and that’s what matters most when you’re looking at players that you do not want to be a fantasy football bust.

 

Projection

50 targets, 32 catches, 380 yards, 3 TDs

TE25