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The Opportunity Analysis – Week 15

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 15

 

TEAM2020 Expected
Last 5
2020 Acutal
Last 5
Actual vs. Expected
TB3746.39.3
NYJ46.745.3-1.4
WSH37.845.27.4
NYG37.7435.3
BUF43.742.8-0.9
TEN36.542.66.1
LAR36.142.26.1
GB39.642.22.6
BAL30.641.811.2
NE40411
KC35.640.85.2
NO38.940.81.9
ATL44.740.8-3.9
PIT40.540-0.5
SEA34.539.85.3
CAR38.639.81.15
DET39.639.60
LV34.438.84.4
CHI41.638.5-3.1
IND33.438.24.8
ARI35383
HOU40.337.8-2.5
CLE37.737.6-0.1
JAX41.837.4-4.4
DEN46.236.8-9.4
CIN41.536.2-5.3
MIN41.235.4-5.8
PHI38.335.2-3.1
SF39.535-4.5
MIA3834.4-3.6
DAL38.832-6.8
LAC41.829.6-12.2

 

Opportunity Analysis Buys

Team: Jacksonville Jaguars

    • Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 9th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 11.2
    • Primary Impacted Player: D.J. Chark

 

Week 15 Recommendation

Early on in 2020, D.J. Chark was on his way to another solid season with Gardner Minshew at the helm, hitting double-digit fantasy points in four of the first five weeks. Then Minshew got hurt, played poorly, and lost his starting job, and Chark has not been the same since. The good news for Chark is he has been a focal point in the offense, seeing at least seven targets in each of the last three games.

The Ravens defense does seem tough on paper, but they have allowed at least 70 yards or a touchdown to multiple wide receivers in three of the last four games. With the Ravens offense getting hot, look for the Jaguars to throw a lot in Week 15, making Chark a solid WR3/flex.

 

Team: New Orleans Saints

    • Opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 11th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 5.2
    • Primary Impacted Player: Emmanuel Sanders
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Jared Cook

 

Week 15 Recommendation

There are plenty of factors that go into why I love these two heading into Week 15. First, Michael Thomas has been ruled out which should open up a lot of opportunities. Second, Drew Brees returns which should bring more pass volume to this team. Lastly, the Saints are playing at home and are playing the Chiefs, who should be able to put up points.

The final three games Emmanuel Sanders played without Thomas (Weeks 3-5), he had at least 12 points in .5 PPR. The matchup is fantastic for Jared Cook as the Chiefs have allowed solid games to tight ends in four straight, including three games in which a tight end scored accumulated at least 100 yards. This makes Sanders a solid WR2 and Cook and low-end TE1 this week.

 

Team: Atlanta Falcons

    • Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 1st
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 9.3
    • Primary Impacted Player: Russell gage
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Hayden Hurst

 

Week 15 Recommendation

With no Julio Jones it should be another week with a lot of opportunities for other pass catchers not named Calvin Ridley. Last week the Falcons played the Chargers defense that is 32nd in dropbacks per game. This 180 should allow for a lot more opportunities for Matt Ryan and company. Calvin Ridley should see a lot of top cornerback Carlton Davis, providing additional looks for Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage.

This year the Buccaneers have allowed solid games to notable slot receivers such as Cooper Kupp, but this is more about the volume projection than anything else. As for Hurst, last week the Vikings tight ends combined for 9-103-1 against Tampa, so it is clear that this is a matchup he can exploit. Overall, the increase in pass volume should make Gage a WR3 and Hurst a solid TE1.

 

Opportunity Analysis Fades

Team: Dallas Cowboys

    • Opponent: San Francisco 49ers
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 31st
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): -6.8
    • Primary Impacted Player: Amari Cooper

 

Week 15 Recommendation

This week Amari Cooper has a tough draw versus an improving 49ers defense. Last week, the 49ers were able to slow down Terry McLaurin (2-24) on their way to another low-scoring affair. Cooper has not seen much volume over the past two weeks, only securing 9 catches for 94 yards. What has saved Cooper Is his ability to get in the end zone.

This could be tough sledding for Cooper as the 49ers have held opponent’s opposing #1 WR out of the end zone in four straight games. Overall, Cooper is not a must-sit player, but he should be viewed as a WR3/Flex this week.

 

Team: Washington Football Team

    • Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 15th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 5.3
    • Primary Impacted Player: Terry McLaurin

 

Week 15 Recommendation

The Seattle defense has turned a corner over the past moth, not allowing a wide receiver to score a touchdown or top 100 yards since Week 9. This is a big change from earlier this season when the Seahawks allowed pretty much every team to dominate them at the receiver position. With Alex Smith ruled out, it is a slight ding for Terry McLaurin but he was able to produce with Dwayne Haskins early on in 2020.

This has more to do with who the Seahawks have held in check. The list includes Robert Woods, Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, and Sterling Shepard. McLaurin should see enough work to make him a low-end WR3, but if you have other options it might be best to pivot.

 

Team: Miami Dolphins

    • Opponent: New England Patriots
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 10th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 1
    • Primary Impacted Player: Mike Gesicki

 

Week 15 Recommendation

Mike Gesicki is coming off three straight games where he found the end zone, putting him firmly on the TE1 map for Week 15. However, this week’s opponent, the New England Patriots, have been one of the toughest matchups for tight ends, allowing a league low one score to the position. This includes Mike Gesicki back in Week 1 when he only had 3-30.

Notable tight ends the Patriots have shut down include Darren Waller (2-9), George Kittle (5-55), and Travis Kelce (3-70). Things could change if DeVante Parker is ruled out, but overall this is not the matchup to chase.