01 Oct The Opportunity Analysis: Week 4
In The Opportunity Analysis: Week 4 we are changing things up a bit. This week we are going to look at the offenses to evaluate the teams they played so far versus their Week 4 opponent. We are going to do this by looking at the opponents drop-backs allowed per game. The below chart shows each team offense and is listed in order by how many more drop-backs their Week 4 opponents has allowed per game versus their opponent’s Week 1-3.
| Team Offense | Opponent | 2021 Opponents Drop-Backs Allowed | Opponents Drop-backs Allowed | Drop-Back Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARZ | LA | 37.1 | 49.7 | 12.6 |
| NE | TB | 39.3 | 50.3 | 11 |
| JAX | CIN | 39.4 | 49.7 | 10.2 |
| NO | NYG | 33.8 | 43.3 | 9.5 |
| CAR | DAL | 38.8 | 47.7 | 8.8 |
| SF | SEA | 34.7 | 42.7 | 8 |
| SEA | SF | 34.8 | 42.7 | 7.8 |
| DEN | BLT | 37.8 | 42.3 | 4.5 |
| HST | BUF | 35.2 | 39.7 | 4.4 |
| LAC | LV | 42 | 46 | 4 |
| NYG | NO | 41.7 | 44.7 | 3 |
| ATL | WAS | 42.8 | 45 | 2.2 |
| NYJ | TEN | 35.1 | 37.3 | 2.2 |
| BLT | DEN | 37.7 | 39.7 | 2 |
| LA | ARZ | 38.1 | 39.7 | 1.6 |
| CLV | MIN | 35.3 | 36.7 | 1.3 |
| CIN | JAX | 36.2 | 37.3 | 1.1 |
| WAS | ATL | 39.4 | 40.3 | 0.8 |
| GB | PIT | 40.3 | 38.3 | -2 |
| BUF | HST | 41.3 | 39 | -2.3 |
| IND | MIA | 43.2 | 40.7 | -2.5 |
| KC | PHI | 37.2 | 34.7 | -2.6 |
| TEN | NYJ | 37.6 | 32.7 | -4.9 |
| LV | LAC | 40.4 | 35.3 | -5.1 |
| DAL | CAR | 40.1 | 34.3 | -5.8 |
| DET | CHI | 40.2 | 33.7 | -6.6 |
| MIA | IND | 39 | 30.3 | -8.7 |
| PIT | GB | 45.1 | 37.7 | -9.4 |
| MIN | CLV | 44 | 34 | -10 |
| PHI | KC | 43.6 | 33.3 | -10.2 |
| CHI | DET | 44.4 | 33.7 | -10.8 |
| TB | NE | 45.9 | 31.3 | -14.6 |
Chart Key
Team Offense – This represents the team offense for the analysis
Opponent – This represents who the offense in column 1 is playing this week
2021 Opponents Drop-Backs Allowed – This shows the per game average of how many drop-backs the opponents of the offense in column 1 have allowed so far in 2021
Opponent Drop-Backs Allowed – This column shows how many drop-back per game the current weeks opponent of the team offense in column 1 has allowed this season
Drop-Back Variance – This represents the difference in drop-backs allowed per game between the opponent this week and the opponents that the team offense in column 1 has faced so far this season
Opportunity Analysis – Stud of the Week
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Los Angeles Rams
Week 4 Opponent’s Drop-Back Variance: 12.6
Primary Impacted Player: DeAndre Hopkins
DeAndre Hopkins was taken in the second round with the potential to be a top 3 WR in 2021. So far that hasn’t happened as he currently sits as the WR21 in .5 PPR. This includes a complete dud vs a hapless Jaguars DST. A lot of this lack of production could be contributed to the low drop-backs for the Cardinals offense. After a two blowout victories in Weeks 1 and 3 which capped their pass volume the Cardinals rank 25th in offensive drop-backs per game through Week 3.
This week that should change as the Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams rank second in the NFL in drop-backs allowed per game with 49.7. This has a lot to do with their red-hot start on offense. Typically, we would be worried about a potential shadow coverage matchup vs Jalen Ramsey, but so far in 2021 Ramsey has manned the slot for the Rams. That leaves Hopkins on the outside vs. Darius Williams and David Long. After back to back slower games, we are confident you can throw in Hopkins in your DFS lineups in Week 4.
Opportunity Analysis – Start of the Week
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
Week 4 Opponent’s Drop-Back Variance: 10.2
Primary Impacted Player: Marvin Jones
At this point Marvin Jones is proving once again he is one of the most undervalued player in fantasy. After seeing his ADP drop to WR51 Jones currently sits as the WR22 through three weeks. This includes having three starting games of 5 or more receptions on 8 or more targets. This type of usage should keep Jones fantasy relevant throughout the season. The issue for Jones is his production has resulted in confidence from the fantasy community. Last week only 38% of teams started Jones according to ESPN. This put him outside the Top 25 in starting % at the position.
This week the Jaguars take on the Bengals as 7.5 road underdogs. For our analysis we like big underdogs as those typically lead to extra pass volume for our players. This season the Bengals have allowed the 13th most points to the WR position. This includes games vs the Bears and Steelers who were down Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson. Cincinnati will be down their top CB in Chidobe Awuzie, who was expected to be on Jones a lot in this contest. This should make the matchup even better for Jones making him a solid start in Week 4.
Opportunity Analysis – Sleeper of the Week
Team: New England Patriots
Opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 4 Opponent’s Drop-Back Variance: 11
Primary Impacted Player: Jakobi Meyers
Through three weeks Jakobi Meyers hasn’t done much, as he is the WR45 averaging just 9 PPG in .5 PPR. The Patriots offense has been going through growing pains this season as they work through the early season struggles with Mac Jones. The good news for Meyers is he is the clear alpha in the Patriots offense leading the team in targets, receptions, and yards through three weeks. The issue for Meyers is his lack of TDs, as he has yet to find the end IN HIS CAREER. This isn’t because of his lack of usage in the red zone, as he currently is tied for the team lead in targets with 4 this season.
This week the Patriots take on their old buddy Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The Bucs offense has been white hot this season but are coming off a loss vs. Rams in Week 3. Like Tom Brady needed more incentive to go off in this game. This should lead to solid game flow for the Patriots offense, and with James White now down for the year, expect players like Meyers to see an uptick in looks. Currently ranked outside the Top 30 WRs in PPR, start Meyers with confidence this week in any PPR format.
Opportunity Analysis – Dud of the Week
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: New England Patriots
Week 4 Opponent’s Drop-Back Variance: -14.6
Primary Impacted Player: Mike Evans
As we write this all we can think about is that Tom Brady is going to be extremely motivated to win this week, and that is going to help all his skill position players. This season the Buccaneers have been a Top 3 pass offense as Brady is second in passing yards, and first in TDs. The schedule to start the year was extremely favorable as the Buccaneers faced the Falcons and Cowboys. Last week Brady looked somewhat human only throwing for 1 TD vs the Rams. Granted he threw for 432 yards, but still the 1 TD game was only the 4th time as a Buccaneer where he didn’t throw for 2 or more TDs. This leads us to Mike Evans who without Antonio Brown last week paced the Bucs in receiving with 8-106.
In Week 4 Mike Evans does have the toughest matchup of the week as he will go up against J.C. Jackson. Jackson has allowed the 11th lowest passer rating when in coverage so far in 2021. This has led the Patriots to allow the 5th fewest points to WRs and the 3rd fewest points to outside WRs in 2021. With Antonio Brown back, Chris Godwin in the slot, and Brady looking for Rob Gronkowski this week vs his old team, Evans could be the odd man out. Currently ranked as the WR20 on Fantasy Pros ECR, Evans should be viewed more as a WR3/Flex in Week 4.
Sources: Expand The Boxscore, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, Fantasy Pros, and FF Today
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