11 Nov The Opportunity Analysis – Week 9
THE OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS WEEK 9
| Team | Week 8 Drop-backs | Season Avg | Season Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 63 | 37.7 | 25.3 |
| Arizona Cardinals* | 52 | 40.5 | 11.5 |
| Detroit Lions | 48 | 39.2 | 8.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 45 | 37.7 | 7.3 |
| New York Giants | 46 | 38.8 | 7.2 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 48 | 41.1 | 6.9 |
| Houston Texans* | 48 | 41.1 | 6.9 |
| Green Bay Packers | 44 | 37.8 | 6.2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 47 | 41.2 | 5.8 |
| Denver Broncos | 44 | 39.1 | 4.9 |
| New Orleans Saints | 43 | 38.4 | 4.6 |
| Chicago Bears | 46 | 43.2 | 2.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42 | 40.3 | 1.7 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 36 | 34.8 | 1.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 37 | 33.1 | -3.9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 41 | 42.5 | -1.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 33 | 36 | -3 |
| Cleveland Browns | 29 | 32.1 | -3.1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 | 37.2 | -3.2 |
| Carolina Panthers | 34 | 37.6 | -3.6 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 45 | 48.8 | -3.8 |
| New York Jets | 35 | 39.2 | -4.2 |
| New England Patriots | 28 | 33.2 | -5.2 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 36 | 43.2 | -7.2 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 30 | 37.2 | -7.2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars* | 36 | 44.2 | -8.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 38 | 46.8 | -8.8 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 34 | 44.3 | -10.3 |
| Miami Dolphins | 24 | 35.7 | -11.7 |
| Washington Redskins* | 28 | 39.8 | -11.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 15 | 30 | -15 |
| Buffalo Bills | 22 | 39 | -17 |
| *Week 7 Drop-Backs |
OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS BUYS
BUFFALO BILLS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 22
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 39
- Week 8 Variance: -17
- Primary Impacted Player – John Brown
- Secondary Impacted Player – Cole Beasley
Before we get started I did not think it was necessary to put Stefon Diggs here, but if you need it in writing he is one of the top plays on the week and is a must start in season-long and great for DFS.
Now for the other guys.
Last week, both Cole Beasley and John Brown had slower games, but this production came on a day where Josh Allen only dropped back to pass 22 times. This should have been expected as no team sees less drop-backs per game than the Patriots at 30.9 per game.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
This week, the pass game projection does a 180 as the Bills will now face a Seattle Seahawks team that has faced the most dropbacks per game on the year. This has led to Seattle allowing the most points per game to slot and outside wide receivers in the NFL. This includes five games in which at least two wideouts scored at least 10 points in .5 PPR.
With the weather looking good in Buffalo we should expect both pass games to dominate in Week 9.
DENVER BRONCOS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 44
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 39
- Week 7 Variance: 5
- Primary Impacted Player – Noah Fant
- Secondary Impacted Player – Tim Patrick
Typically when we see pass volume exceed the season average, we fade the matchup. However, when it comes to Denver, it is all about Drew Lock. In the last two games under Lock, the Broncos have averaged 44 dropbacks in each game. This influx of pass volume led to solid days for multiple pass catchers as DaeSean Hamilton and Jerry Jeudy got over 70 yards, and Noah Fant finished as a top 12 tight end.
This trend should continue versus a Falcons team that sees 41 drop-backs per game on the season.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
Noah Fant is about to take on a Falcons team that has allowed the most point per game to tight ends this season. This should lock Fant into TE1 production after a solid game last week against the Chargers.
As for Tim Patrick, he has constantly been the most productive receiver when on the field, and we should expect that trend to continue. The Falcons are second in the NFL in points allowed to outside receivers, so Patrick and Jeudy should benefit from this elite matchup.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 28
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 33
- Week 8 Variance: -5
- Primary Impacted Player – Jakobi Meyers
The Patriots pass offense has been nothing short of embarrassing over the past few weeks, but the lone bright spot has been Jakobi Meyers. Meyers has back-to-back games with at least eight points in .5 PPR. This production came against the 49ers and Bills, who have been much tougher versus wide receivers than the Jets so far in 2020.
Another key element is Meyers has taken over for Edelman as the primary slot receiver in this offense, seeing over 50% of his snaps on the inside in Week 9. This position has been fantastic in the Patriots offense for years so Meyers should continue to see consistent production.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
This week Meyers faces a Jets defense that has allowed the 10th most points to wide receivers. That alone does not seem amazing, but when you see that Meyers production against the 49ers (4-60) and Bills (6-58), there is a lot of room for optimism. N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman will not return for this matchup, leaving Meyers firmly on the WR3 map.
OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS FADES
NEW YORK GIANTS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 46
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 38.9
- Week 7 Variance: 7.1
- Primary Impacted Player – Darius Slayton
The return of Sterling Shepard has clouded the fantasy outlook of the Giants pass game as Shepard is now pacing the team in targets the last two weeks. This has made the rest of the pass game less reliable as they will be getting less of the target pie as long as Shepard is healthy.
This will be very true for Darius Slayton, who has only produced 79 yards on seven receptions over the past two weeks. Of course there will be big games for Slayton moving forward, but with Shepard now in the fold, he will be more of a matchup dependent WR3 instead of an must-start WR3 each week.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
Slayton was able to capitalize on one long reception against the Washington Football Team, securing 2-41-1 on the day. However, banking on a long touchdown for Slayton is a losing strategy for fantasy, so it might be best to pivot in Week 9. The Washington Football team has seen the second fewest dropbacks per game this year which in turn resulted in them allowing the least amount of points to receivers in 2020.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 48
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 41.1
- Week 8 Variance: 6.9
- Primary Impacted Player – Mike Williams
Mike Williams finally looked healthy on his way to a monster game going, for 5-99-1 versus the Broncos in Week 8. The Chargers as a team dropped back a bunch in this one as the game turned into a shootout. This season the Broncos have been very susceptible to outside receivers, allowing the 12th most points out wide versus only being 20th against inside wideouts.
This type of defense opened up a prime opportunity for Mike Williams to flourish in Week 8.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
This week the Chargers take on a Raiders defense that is 26th in points allowed to outside receivers which has resulted in slow days for players like Mike Evans (2-37), John Brown (4-42), D.J. Moore (4-54), and Emmanuel Sanders (1-18). Meanwhile, the Raiders have been more vulnerable to inside receivers, which should bode well for Keenan Allen (if he plays).
This is why after a strong game against Denver, Mike Williams is a fade in Week 9.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
- Week 8 Dropbacks: 47
- 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 41.2
- Week 8 Variance: 5.8
- Primary Impacted Player – Mecole Hardman
- Secondary Impacted Player – Demarcus Robinson
Last week the Chiefs could not get anything going on the ground, but Patrick Mahomes and company more than made up for it through the air as Mahomes cruised to 416 yards and 5 TDs. This does not come as much of a surprise as according to Football Outsiders the Jets are 10th in DVOA versus the run while 31st against the pass.
This led to an influx in pass volume that allowed both Mecole Hardman (7-96-1) and Demarcus Robinson (4-63-1) to finish as top 20 wide receivers on the week. Meanwhile the ground game was horrific as Le’Veon Bell and Clyde Edwards-Helaire finished with 9-28 on the ground.
Opportunity Analysis Week 9 Recommendation
Heading into Week 9 the Chiefs should have a much more productive day on the ground against a Panthers defense that is 26th in DVOA versus the run. This will allow CEH and Bell to keep the clock moving and allow the Chiefs to control the game late through the run game.
This should eliminate the need for Mahomes to drop back over 40 times, leaving less volume to go around this week. Even after top 20 games for both Chiefs pass catchers, both are best viewed as WR4 options in Week 9.
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