12 Oct Best NFL Lines for Week 6 – Green Bay Packers
Best NFL Lines for Week 6 – Green Bay Packers
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of Matt Midlikowski’s “Best NFL Lines.” Throughout this article, an in-depth analysis of hand-selected games will identity the best NFL bets each week. The trend watch section offers the most important historical trends for each game. Finally, Matt touts one side of the game in the opinion section.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, O/U 47)
The Green Bay Packers’ and Detroit Lions’ rivalry doesn’t have the historical relevance that Packers and Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings does. However, this is still a good NFC North battle, considering the winner will sit atop the early division leaderboard.
Detroit won each of the last four games, both straight-up and against the spread. It is notable that Aaron Rodgers only played in one of those games and threw for 442 passing yards in that losing effort. Detroit is coming off a bye, and Green Bay is coming off back-to-back tough contests against the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. Rest is a big advantage for the Lions, especially as the Packers continue to deal with injuries.
Davante Adams remains questionable for Monday Night Football, and Green Bay reported that they will be careful with his injured toe. That sounds like he isn’t playing. Cornerback Kevin King and safety Darnell Savage are questionable, as well. King leads the team with two interceptions, and Savage looks like a defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Za’Darius Smith has five sacks in his first season with Green Bay, but could miss Monday as he battles a knee injury. Green Bay allowed just 10.3 points per game through three games. They allowed 29 points per contest in their last two games as the competition ramped up and injuries piled up. Detroit looks better regarding injuries, but cornerbacks Quandre Diggs and Darius Slay are both questionable with hamstring issues.
The Packers simply cannot maintain offensive consistency through four quarters. Rodgers is completing 78% of his passes in the first quarter for an average 133.6 QB rating, but that falls to 69.1 during the final quarter. His yards per attempt fall from 10.7 in the first to 5.9 in the fourth. This is bad news for a team that is 23rd in total yards. Responsibility falls on Rodgers, and he is misfiring outside of that opening script. Without Adams last week, Rodgers notched just four completions to wide receivers.
Matt Patricia understands the value of the run game and has stuck with it to the tune of an average of 32.5 minutes in time-of-possession. Kerryon Johnson is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, but the Lions are sticking with ground game. This limits the exposure of their defense. The Lions’ defense enters Week 7 27th in total yards allowed. Matt Stafford has thrown for 9 scores and has a 102.6 QB rating. Detroit is 12th in scoring at 24.2 points per game. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay have combined for 520 receiving yards and 5 scores. One of them will face Jaire Alexander who just gave up 226 yards to Amari Cooper.
The Detroit Lions are 4-1 against the spread in their last 5 games on the road. They are 6-1 against the spread in their last 7 games on Monday Night Football.
The Green Bay Packers are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games on Monday Night Football. They are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 division games.
The over has hit in 6 of the last 7 games between these teams.
The Green Bay Packers are all over the map, sometimes looking like a 12-4 team and a 4-12 team in the same game. That volatility should make bettors nervous. The Dallas Cowboys were able to net 563 total yards in a loss to the Packers last week. I give Detroit good odds to move the ball effectively, given an entire week to prepare. I will stick with Green Bay to get the win at home, as Aaron Jones (452 total yards, 8 touchdowns) has emerged to be a top-end playmaker. However, I think Detroit gets some late scores like Dallas did. Green Bay wins 26-24, so put me down for the over, which is getting nearly 70% of the action.