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Stacks and Backs Week 4

NFL DFS 2019

by Alec Aubry (@FantasySpuds)

I hope those who are back from last week were able to piece together some great lineups, as last week’s article turned out some red-hot performances. This week seems to be one where points will come more so at a premium than last week, but there are still plenty of great plays out there! Before we dig into this week’s stacks and backs, let’s take a quick peak at last week’s plays.

The biggest boom had to have been the Jameis Winston and Mike Evans stack! Evans had the biggest fantasy day of the week with 48 DK points off of 8 Receptions, 190 Receiving Yards and 3 Touchdowns. The honorable mention Panthers stack of Kyle Allen, Christian McCaffrey, and Greg Olsen also turned in an amazing performance. As these three combined for 81.64 DK points. Kyle Allen finished as the QB7, McCaffrey as the RB3, and Greg Olsen as the TE3 for the week. Not to mention this stack saved a lot of salary that was hopefully put towards Keenan Allen and Mike Evans. Patrick Mahomes continued to do Patrick Mahomes things as he spread the ball around like butter and finished as the QB3. Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce continue to lead the team in targets, yet the fantasy points have not followed these past two weeks. We’ll discuss this a bit more below. Kyler Murray along with his pass catchers were very mediocre. The same can be said about Ezekiel Elliot who was unable to find the end zone. Austin Ekeler also failed to hit expectations, with a so-so performance. Now that we’ve gone over the quick summary of last week, let’s focus on adding another great week into the books! All pricing I mention is for DraftKings pricing.

Stacks

The first stack is going to be a chalky one, but one that must be discussed. I’m talking about Russell Wilson at a projected 15.6% ownership and Tyler Lockett at a projected 23.2% ownership, who are going up against the Arizona Cardinals who can’t stop anyone at this point in time. Along with their terrible defense, the Cardinals’ offensive inefficiencies throwing the ball around incomplete on an average of 17.67 passes per game, has allowed opposing teams more offensive opportunities. Although this is the first stack, it’s not my favorite. This stack will be absolute gold if the Cardinals can put up points on the Seahawks early and often. On the other hand, if the Seahawks take a commanding lead this game could end up being the biggest fantasy disappointment of the day. With the heavy ownership placed on a team who has a good chance to get up early and loves running the ball, I think this is some badly placed chalk. I’ll be underweight on the Seahawks passing attack this week, which includes the very chalky Will Dissly at a price point of $3,600 and a projected ownership of 18.9%. What could go wrong?

Just recently I heard probably the simplest, yet best Patrick Mahomes stat. Per Mike Tagliere, there has never been a game with Patrick Mahomes as the starter, that the Chiefs have scored under 26 points in a game. That is just unbelievable. This streak is bound to continue as even though the Lions have been a good to middle of the road defensive unit thus far, Patrick Mahomes has been shielded by what’s been one of the best offensive line units in the league. Like butter, Mahomes has been spreading the ball around to all his pass catchers. My favorite this week are still Sammy Watkins at a projected ownership of 9.3%, and Travis Kelce at a projected ownership of 11.8%. Over the past two weeks Watkins has compiled 21 targets, yet has only caught 11 of them for 113 Receiving Yards and no Touchdowns. I’m betting these targets keep on coming and Watkins finally has himself another great game like we saw in Week 1. As for Kelce, he’s been productive putting up games of 26.7 and 15.9 DK Points. He should continue his dominance as the best tight end in the league again this week. Feel free to take shots on Mecole Hardman at a projected 8.7% ownership and Demarcus Robinson at a 3.7% ownership as well. Using any assortment of this stack is viable in both tournaments and cash lineups.

The last stack I want to discuss is one of dark horse proportions with tournament winning potential. The stack that almost no one will want to play, yet has ultimate leverage is a Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. stack. Yes, I went there. The first three weeks of watching this Browns offense has been utterly disappointing, no doubt. Yet, this is not the same stout Baltimore Ravens defense we are accustomed to from years past. They’ve lost key pieces such as Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley this offseason, while Jimmy Smith their best corner is still out with a knee sprain and Marlon Humphrey, another key corner, is dinged up for this matchup. The Ravens have faced the worst offense and the best offense already this year, through three weeks the Ravens are slated as the 20th best passing defense according to DVOA. If the Browns are able to give Baker enough time, OBJ should be able to work his way open for what could be a big game. In OBJ’s only career contest against the Ravens, he went for 222 Receiving Yards and 2 touchdowns. Granted that was three years ago and mostly irrelevant, but hey maybe OBJ really doesn’t like the Ravens. Either or, Baker Mayfield is at a price point of $5,800 and a projected ownership mark of 1.3%, while OBJ is at a price point of $7,300 and a projected ownership mark of 4.7%. You won’t find a better leverage play than one of the best WRs in the game at under 5% ownership. This stack is not for the risk adverse, but for those who really want to differentiate, this is a great way to do so. Bringing it back with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown at a projected 8.9% ownership makes me love this stack even more as both of the Browns’ Corner Backs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams did not practice all week.

Some quick honorable mentions stacks, Lamar Jackson had been phenomenal the first two games while being, “meh”, last week in Kansas City. As previously mentioned the two starting corners for the Browns very well could miss this contest. Lamar Jackson is a great cash and tournament play this week as he’s only at 5.1% projected ownership. Matthew Stafford at a projected 8.1% ownership is another name that I feel comfortable with in cash and tournaments. Although the Chiefs defense has looked better than last year, the Lions are at home and have plenty of playmakers at Stafford’s disposal. Feel free to stack Stafford with Kerryon Johnson, Kenny Golladay and/or Marvin Jones in a game that should have plenty of offensive firepower.

Backs

Onto our backs for the week! First and foremost, I am absolutely smitten with Kerryon Johnson. He’s priced at $5,400 and at a projected ownership mark of 23.2% in a game where the Lions are going to be forced to score points. Regardless of the score, the Lions are going to want to run the ball. Whether that makes sense or not on an every week basis is to be determined, but this week it actually does make sense. As the Chiefs through three weeks are the worst team against the rush per DVOA. Also, the more time you keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, the better. Kerryon also played 75% of the teams snaps last week, after the team cut C.J. Anderson the Wednesday prior to their matchup against the Eagles. Kerryon is also game-script proof as even if this game gets out of hand in the Chiefs favor he should see a handful of targets. I’m not overthinking this, Kerryon is the best RB play on the board. Feel free to use him in cash and tournaments.

This is going to sound like a familiar tune, but again Christian McCaffrey is someone I’m having a hard time staying away from. He has been nothing short of elite, besides that Thursday night game. I think he continues his dominance on the road in Houston. So far this Houston defensive unit has been middle of the pack in almost every statistic this season. With McCaffrey playing nearly every snap, he’s seeing more opportunities than any other running back on this slate. Even at a projected ownership mark of 28.2% and being the highest priced running back on the main slate at $8,800, he’s still worth play in cash and tournaments.

Last but not least, is Marlon Mack at a price point of $6,100 and a projected 20.8% ownership. Mack has plenty of advantages on his side heading into Week 4. This should be a positive game script, as the Colts are home favorites. The Colts offensive line is vastly better than the average run defense of the Raiders. Mack has even tacked on a couple catches in each of the past two contests. He should see plenty of usage in this game, fire him up with confidence in cash and tournaments.

Okay, maybe I lied. It’s nearly impossible to not mention Austin Ekeler who’s going up against the dreadful Dolphins. Ekeler is at a price point of $8,000 and a MONSTER projected ownership mark of 40.4%. The latest news on Melvin Gordon‘s playing status is that he will play in a “limited role”. This is a huge question mark thrown into what should have been a free space in lineups this week. There is still a lot of potential for Ekeler to go bananas. And now we should be able to get him at lower ownership. Could Gordon vulture the goal line carries? Probably. But Ekeler’s jack of all trades mark should still earn him plenty of looks in the rushing and passing game with Mike Williams (back) out, Hunter Henry (knee) out and Travis Benjamin (hip) doubtful. The Dolphins are giving up an average of 487 total yards a game. Touches should be very concentrated between Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. There’s a reason both are extremely chalky. My final thought for this week’s article is my best attempt at going full galaxy brain, and playing a fair amount of Dontrelle Inman as well at min. price on DK.