09 Oct Betting Blind: Week 5
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Blind took another loss last week, so we are 10-2. Let us see if we can keep the train rolling down the tracks in Week 5. With our first scheduled round of byes coming this week we will be without the Packers and Lions. But there are plenty of other games to choose from.
*** Three Star Play *** (4-0)
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons – Over 54.5 points
Betting Blind pulled out a close one with Carolina last week. This time we hope the Panthers do their part in a division game against the hapless Atlanta Falcons. Neither of these teams have a good defense. Both do have excellent offenses though. I am not a math wizard but bad defenses plus good offenses usually equals lots of points scored.
Todd Gurley had two TDs last week against Green Bay, and against a putrid Carolina run defense he could get another one this week. Julio Jones might miss this game because of his nagging hammy. If he does, look for Russell Gage to slide into place next to Calvin Ridley in formations.
Matt Ryan will also lean more on Hayden Hurst and last week’s breakout receiver Olamides Zaccheus.
Teddy Bridgewater had his first rushing score since his gruesome injury, and I am happy for it. Robby Anderson has solidified himself as the WR1 for the Panthers to this point, and he is finally having his breakout season under his college coach Matt Rhule.
D.J. Moore though is set to finally do something himself. This is the perfect week to do so. Atlanta is getting A.J. Terrell back, but who cares? Bridgewater will have a field day for fantasy. Whether he is throwing to Anderson, Moore, or prolific pass-catching running back Mike Davis, this team will score. Both of these teams will score.
In a matchup of two teams vying for the bottom of the NFC South, scoring will be aplenty.
Take Over 54.5 points
** Two Star Play ** (2-2)
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers – Over 44.5 points
The Steelers are mad and they are going to take it out on the Eagles.
One good thing about Pittsburgh getting an unexpected bye last week was time off for Diontae Johnson and James Conner. Both should be back to full health coming into this game; Johnson has cleared the concussion protocol and Conner can only get better with more rest.
Ben Roethlisberger will also arrive another week removed from his elbow surgery and his connection with JuJu Smith-Schuster this season has been apparent, if inconsistent. Add to this the play of the Steelers rush defense and this game will be played through the air.
The Eagles finally got a win last week. They took advantage of a weak 49ers team to do so, but a win is a win. Carson Wentz played a little better and coming into this game, he will have some renewed confidence to work with. Zach Ertz is still there, and Miles Sanders is a dual-threat out of the backfield.
The Eagles +7.5 is very intriguing but in a season full of points thus far, I will trust the points over the spread.
Take Over 44.5 points
* One Star Play * (4-0)
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns – Browns Moneyline
I could just take the +2 with Cleveland. Instead, I am going for the better odds and the outright win for the Browns.
The Colts defense has been great this season; they are number one in scoring and against the rush. The Browns are a run first team, and the loss of Nick Chubb though will lead to more of the backfield work to Kareem Hunt. This means even if the Colts are able to slow down D’Ernest Johnson, Hunt will get his.
Hopefully the re-emergence of Odell Beckham Jr. after a three TD game last week stretches the Browns’ offensive prowess. Indianapolis could be without LB Darius Leonard for this tilt, which will create a hole in the middle of the defense to exploit.
The Browns defense is not great. Lucky for them, neither is the Colts offense. Philip Rivers has made some throws at times. At other times he has looked finished. Even though the Cleveland secondary is hurting, Denzel Ward is still there. He will be matched against T.Y. Hilton.
With injuries to Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman Jr., there is no one else left to hurt the Browns in the pass game.
Jonathan Taylor received a lot of praise coming into the season. After Marlon Mack went down in Week 1 the infatuation only went up. But he has yet to be the bell cow most had hoped for. Despite playing behind a stellar offensive line Taylor has only reached the 100-yard barrier once.
If the Colts want to go to Cleveland and win, he will need to make it a second time this week.
Call me stupid but as long as Baker Mayfield keeps being a game manager and not try to win it himself, the brownies are a better team than the Colts. Getting them at plus money is great value.
Take the Browns Moneyline
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.