10 Oct Against The Line: Week 5 Plays
Betting Blind. Against The Line: Week 5 Plays
Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.
All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from Fan Dual Sportsbook
We had another profitable week. 2-1 in the record books. If you read the article and were so inspired, you may have even bet the Jets money line and cashed a third win. But let us not get too overconfident. Betting is a game-by-game venture. So here are may favorite plays for another profitable week.
Season record: (3-1)
Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers -2.5
This pains me but feelings cannot come into play when making smart wagers.
Cleveland is coming off a bad game against the Minnesota Vikings. A game in which Baker Mayfield just did not look like himself. He was not himself as he has been dealing with a shoulder injury since early September. Of course, the Browns are a run first team so this should not matter. But it does. There still needs to be the threat of a passing game or the run game does not work. The injury to Baker along with Jarvis Landry still missing will make it difficult for Cleveland to bring their full offense to the table against Derwin James, Joey Bosa and company.
On the other side, Justin Herbert looks like a man possessed. One of my favorite players coming into the league, he has shown superior ability since entering. Mike Williams has finally shown the form that allowed him to be a high 1st-round draft pick. On top of Williams, Keenan Allen is a machine and Austin Ekeler is having a good season at the running back position.
While Myles Garrett is leading the way in Defensive Player of the Year rankings and Jadeveon Clowney is having a resurgence, the offensive line in Los Angeles is vastly improved over 2020. Rookie Rashon Slater has provided stellar protection and the Chargers have used this to provide Herbert the time to carve up defenses.
The Charger’s defense is also nothing to sneeze at. Whether it be in their three wins or in their one loss, the Los Angeles defense has held all its opponents to their lowest scoring total of the season. They will lose the streak this week as I see Cleveland scoring more than the 14 they managed last week. But the defense should do enough to allow the offense to outdo them. I like the home team here. Especially at less than a field goal. Give me the Chargers -2.5.
Season record: (1-3)
Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs: Bills Team Total Over 27
The Kansas City Chiefs can score. The Buffalo Bills can score. But only one of them has a good defense. It is not the Kansas City Chiefs, who are constantly allowing teams to score. It is the Bills, who just shutout the Texans at home 40-0 last week. Joke all you want about it being the Houston Texans and Davis Mills, but they are still an NFL team. Shutting out any team in the NFL is difficult. This week will be a different beast, though.
With Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill on the other side of the field, the Bills are not going to pitch a shutout here. This means they will need to score to have a chance to win. And their chance of winning is extremely high in this one.
Mahomes is great, but so is Josh Allen. Dawson Knox is providing some scoring at the tight end position and Stefon Diggs is every bit as good as Tyreek Hill, although different in his skill set. The Bills offense matches up well against what the Chiefs defense is bad at, everything. They have not been able to get a pass rush against anyone this season. Against Allen, they will not want to overdo it as he can get out of the pocket and run away from them. In the backend, Tyrann Mathieu is great but has not been so this season. This will allow Allen to connect with not only Diggs, but also Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley on some big plays down field.
I see a Sunday night shootout coming in this one. Both teams could reach 30 and with the Chiefs being favored, give me the team with the lower implied team total. And the team I think will win the game outright. Hint, hint on another money line play. Give me the Bills team total over 27.
Season record: (1-3)
Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers -1
This is solely a play based on the health of Teddy Bridgewater. He was knocked out cold last week and if the Denver Broncos must start Drew Lock in this one, I do not like their chances against the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger is bad. He can barely throw the ball past 10 yards, and he is becoming a statue behind a bad offensive line. Despite this, I still have faith the Pittsburgh Steelers can Beat Drew Lock at home.
Not only should Diontae Johnson be fully healthy, but Chase Claypool is also likely to return here. This gives the Steelers three good wide receivers as JuJu Smith-Schuster is also going to be on the field. Denver has a top secondary, especially with Rookie Patrick Surtain Jr. showing why he was taken ninth in the 2021 draft. But Bradley Chubb is hurt again and Von Miller, although good, is getting older. Add to this repertoire of receivers the run game of Najee Harris and the Steelers should have enough fire power to pull out a small victory here. As a one-point favorite, this is all I am asking for.
Courtland Sutton has been good since the injury to Jerry Jeudy has given him the WR 1 role. But Minkah Fitzpatrick is better than any player he has had to go against this season. In the pass rush, T.J. Watt is one of, if not for Myles Garrett, the best, in the NFL. These two will make it hard for Drew Lock to get anything done this week on the road in a hostile environment. Pittsburgh may not be an elite team anymore. Heck, they may not even be good, but they are good enough to beat Drew Lock in this one. Give me the Steelers at anything less than a field goal. Getting them at -1 is even better. Take the Steelers -1.
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.