30 Oct Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 8
Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 8
Running Back Stud(s), Dud(s), Sleeper(s) and Start(s) of the Week For Week 8
Below is a chart that breaks down Football Outsiders adjusted line yards metric. We then for this analysis factored in the opponents they faced so far in 2021 to get a more accurate assessment of the true push an offensive line gets, and a defensive line allows. This allowed us to create a new adjusted line yards metric. This new adjusted line yard metric is shown in the chart below from the best to worst matchups on the week.
| Metic Rank | Offense | OFF New ALY | Defense | DEF New ALY | ALY Matchup Metric |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 5.15 | MIN | 4.82 | 4.99 |
| 2 | KC | 4.68 | NYG | 4.65 | 4.66 |
| 3 | LAR | 4.48 | HOU | 4.66 | 4.57 |
| 4 | ARI | 4.25 | GB | 4.86 | 4.56 |
| 5 | JAX | 4.89 | SEA | 4.22 | 4.55 |
| 6 | PHI | 4.47 | DET | 4.53 | 4.50 |
| 7 | WAS | 4.34 | DEN | 4.61 | 4.48 |
| 8 | TEN | 4.51 | IND | 4.36 | 4.44 |
| 9 | DET | 4.23 | PHI | 4.64 | 4.44 |
| 10 | NE | 4.21 | LAC | 4.64 | 4.43 |
| 11 | MIN | 4.23 | DAL | 4.61 | 4.42 |
| 12 | GB | 4.59 | ARI | 4.23 | 4.41 |
| 13 | LAC | 4.45 | NE | 4.36 | 4.40 |
| 14 | SF | 4.08 | CHI | 4.56 | 4.32 |
| 15 | CLE | 4.63 | PIT | 4.00 | 4.32 |
| 16 | IND | 4.18 | TEN | 4.44 | 4.31 |
| 17 | SEA | 4.15 | JAX | 4.44 | 4.30 |
| 18 | BUF | 4.43 | MIA | 4.15 | 4.29 |
| 19 | CIN | 4.11 | NYJ | 4.41 | 4.26 |
| 20 | CHI | 4.47 | SF | 3.80 | 4.13 |
| 21 | CAR | 3.80 | ATL | 4.41 | 4.10 |
| 22 | TB | 4.91 | NO | 3.22 | 4.07 |
| 23 | ATL | 4.09 | CAR | 4.00 | 4.05 |
| 24 | NYG | 3.59 | KC | 4.48 | 4.03 |
| 25 | DEN | 4.12 | WAS | 3.79 | 3.96 |
| 26 | NO | 4.43 | TB | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| 27 | PIT | 3.81 | CLE | 3.77 | 3.79 |
| 28 | HOU | 3.42 | LAR | 4.09 | 3.76 |
| 29 | MIA | 4.00 | BUF | 3.42 | 3.71 |
| 30 | NYJ | 3.75 | CIN | 3.17 | 3.46 |
Chart Key
Metric Rank – This is the number rank 1-32 of the offense in the new adjusted line yard metric
Offense – This column represents the team offense for the analysis
New OFF ALY – This represents the new offensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
Defense – This column represents the team defense for the analysis
New DEF ALY – This represents the new defensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
ALY Matchup Metric – This metric combines the offense vs. the defensive opponent for this week to see which offense has the best matchups on the week. This should help us identify which RBs to buy and fade for this week
DFS Stud of the Week
Team: Detroit Lions
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 9
Primary Impacted Player: D’Andre Swift
After sharing most of the backfield work 50/50, D’Andre Swift has slowly earned a bigger piece of the Detroit Lions backfield touches. In Weeks 6 and 7, Swift had clearly moved ahead of Jamaal Williams on the ground as he has 10 more carries than Williams during that stretch. This is a huge development for Swift, as prior to Week 6, Williams had more carries, 55 to 52. This baseline of at least 13-16 carries opens the door for big weeks as Swift continues to see elite usage in the passing game. Through Week 7, Swift is 2nd in the NFL in RB targets per game (7.4).
This week the Lions take on the Philadelphia Eagles who have allowed the 5th most points and the 5th most points over expectation to RBs this season. This includes allowing over 30 points per game to the RB position over the past 5 weeks. Currently priced under $8k on FD and $7,100 on DK, Swift is worth the cost in Week 8.
(Honorable Mention: James Robinson)
Start of the Week
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: New York Giants
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 2
Primary Impacted Player: Darrel Williams
The Chiefs are coming off the most embarrassing loss in the Patrick Mahomes era getting completed dominated by the Titans 27-3. The loss was so bad that Mahomes was pulled from the game to allow Chad Henne to attempt 16 passes. This game flow forced the Chiefs hand as Darrel Williams only saw 5 carries and 3 receptions in the game. The good news is Williams still completely dominated RB touches as he saw 8 of 11 in the contest. Let’s not forget that prior to Week 7, Williams saw 24 touches and scored 2 TDs on the ground.
This week, the Chiefs should see a much more positive game script as they travel back home to face the New York Giants. The Giants have allowed the 4th most rushing yards (768) and 4th highest YPC (4.6) this season. This matchup should lead to a similar game fllow as Week 6 which will give Williams a lot more opportunities for touches. This is why Williams is a solid season-long start in Week 8.
(Honorable Mention: Damien Harris)
Sleeper of the Week
Team: San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 14
Primary Impacted Player: Elijah Mitchell
In the four games Elijah Mitchell has played in so far in 2021, he’s averaged 15.8 carries for 74 yards and .5 TDs. During those 4 games, Mitchell has carried the ball 63 times compared to 16 for all other RBs on the roster. This gives him an 80% share of the RB carries during that time frame. That’s elite usage, but people still don’t see Mitchell as an elite option. When you dive into the opponents it’s not like Mitchell had a cupcake schedule either. The Lions (11), Eagles (6), Cardinals (19) and Colts (17) in the DEF NEW ALY metric. As we can see outside of the Eagles matchup in Week 2, none of these opponents have been inside the top 10.
This week, the 49ers take on the Chicago Bears who currently sit at #10 in the DEF ALY metric. The Bears this season have given up the 6th most rushing yards (762) and the 4th highest YPC (4.6). This includes at least 15 points in .5 PPR to Darrell Henderson, Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones and Leonard Fournette.
(Honorable Mention: Philadelphia Eagles RBs)
Dud of the Week
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: New Orleans Saints
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 26th
Primary Impacted Player: Leonard Fournette
Heading into the season no one thought Leonard Fournette would be a workhorse with Ronald Jones and Gio Bernard sharing the backfield. Instead of sharing the backfield, Fournette has been a workhorse in 2021. Through Week 7, Fournette is Top 10 in carries, targets, receptions, and total yards for RBs. This production has led Fournette to be a Top 15 RB in PPG so far in 2021. It is fair to point out that the schedule has been soft early on this season as Fournette has faced the 4th easiest schedule among RBs in NEW DEF ALY metric so far in 2021.
This week, Fournette will have his toughest test yet as he squares off vs. the Saints in Week 8. The Saints this season have again been one of the best defenses vs. RBs as they have allowed the 4th fewest points to the position. This includes holding RBs to the lowest rushing yards (333) and a ridiculous (2.8) YPC. It is notable that Fournette had a solid game vs. the Saints in the playoffs last year going for a combined 107 total yards and a score, but in 2 regular season games he had a combined 6 carries for 5 yards. That floor makes him a risky start this week.
(Honorable Mention: Denver Broncos RBs)
Sources: expandtheboxscore.com, football outsiders, pro football focus, pro football reference, fantasy pros and fftoday
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