22 Oct Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 7
Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 7
Running Back Stud, Dud, Sleeper and Start of the Week For Week 7
For full breakdown on what we are doing for this article go read the intro of the Week 5 article.
Below is a chart that breaks down Football Outsiders adjusted line yards metric. We then for this analysis factored in the opponents they faced so far in 2021 to get a more accurate assessment of the true push an offensive line gets, and a defensive line allows. This allowed us to create a new adjusted line yards metric. This new adjusted line yard metric is shown in the chart below from the best to worst matchups on the week.
|Metric Rank||Offense||OFF New ALY||Defense||DEF New ALY||ALY Matchup Metric|
Metric Rank – This is the number rank 1-26 of the offense in the new adjusted line yard metric
Offense – This column represents the team offense for the analysis
New OFF ALY – This represents the new offensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
Defense – This column represents the team defense for the analysis
New DEF ALY = This represents the new defensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
ALY Matchup Metric – This metric combines the offense vs. the defensive opponent for this week to see which offense has the best matchups on the week. This should help us identify which RBs to buy and fade for this week
Stud of the Week
Team: New Orleans Saints
Opponent: Seattle Seahawks
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 5th
Primary Impacted Player: Alvin Kamara
Alvin Kamara hasn’t been his usual elite RB1 self this season currently sitting as the RB11 in PPR PPG. That doesn’t mean Kamara isn’t capable of big games. In Week 5 vs. the Washington Football Team, he turned back the clock going for a combined 122 yards and 2 TDs. Prior to Week 5, we have seen a lower floor and bigger swings in Kamara’s 2021 fantasy production. This is mostly due to his inconsistent pass game role. In his first 5 games, Kamara has only been over 4 targets twice, something he did in 11 of 15 games in 2020.
This week, the arrow is pointing up for Kamara as he takes on a Seahawks defense that allows the 3rd most points to the RB position. This includes the 4th most receptions and 2nd most receiving yards on the season. The pass game matchup, on top of the fact the Seahawks have allowed 80+ rushing yards to every RB1 since Week 2, makes Kamara a solid DFS play in Week 7.
(Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson)
Start of the Week
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: Las Vegas Raiders
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 8th
Primary Impacted Player: Miles Sanders
There are a lot of names we wanted to put here for the start of the week including Darrell Williams, Chuba Hubbard and Leonard Fournette. However, with all those guys coming off big weeks we wanted to find a player who hasn’t been producing, so we turn to Miles Sanders. First question we have to ask is, is Miles Sanders any good? The answer is still yes. Sanders, among qualified RBs this season, is 12th in YPA (4.7), tied for 4th in Breakaway Percentage and his 53% success rate on runs is better than notable players like Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook. The bigger problem for Sanders is the usage. Somehow through 6 weeks, Sanders has failed to crack 10 carries per game.
Heading into Week 7 it sounds like that is going to change, as early indications are that the Eagles are looking to get Sanders going. This should lead to at least double digit-carries after a strong showing in the second half vs. the Buccaneers. The Eagles Week 7 opponent, the Raiders, have allowed 96 rushing yards to the Dolphins, 113 to the Chargers, 139 to the Bears and 103 to the Broncos. This makes Sanders our start of the week in Week 7.
(Honorable Mention Chuba Hubbard)
Sleeper of the Week
Team: Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: Houston Texans
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 7th
Primary Impacted Player: James Conner
If we were ever going to predict a James Conner breakout game in 2021, it would be this week vs. the Houston Texans. The Texans through Week 6 have allowed the second most rushing yards (731) and are tied for 4th most rushing TDs (6) on the year. This all comes with the Texans losing 5 straight games with 4 of those by at least 10 points. More recently, since Week 4, the Texans have allowed 3 straight teams to rush for at least 100 yards and have allowed 4 rushing TDs over that span.
This leads us to James Conner, who so far in 2021 has been the clock-killing ball carrier for the Cardinals. Conner is 6th in the NFL in 2nd half rushing attempts. This game sets up as one where Conner will get a lot of looks as the Cardinals should have the lead heading into the 3rd and 4th quarter. This makes Conner a solid RB2 with all the bye weeks in Week 7.
(Honorable Mention: Michael Carter)
Dud of the Week
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 26th
Primary Impacted Player: Joe Mixon
Joe Mixon is coming off his best performance of the year, scoring 26 PPR fantasy points in Week 6. Mixon got it done on the ground (19-94) and through the air (5-59-1). This pass game usage was a sight for sore eyes as Mixon hadn’t seen over 2 targets in any game since Week 1. The caveat to all this is, he did it vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions this season have allowed the most fantasy points and the most fantasy points over expectation to RBs this season. Either way, it is good to know that Mixon has this upside in good matchups.
This brings us to the Bengals Week 7 opponent the Ravens. The Ravens this season haven’t been great against RBs in general as they have allowed the 8th most points per game. However, when diving into how teams have dominated the Ravens it might not be the best fit for Mixon. This season, the Ravens have allowed the 2nd most points to RBs in the pass game, but only the 15th most points on the ground. A lot of this is driven by TDs as well, as the Ravens have allowed the 5th fewest rush yards per game. With all the bye weeks, Mixon isn’t a must sit, but he should be viewed as more of an low-end RB2/flex in Week 7.
(Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor)
Sources: expandtheboxscore.com, football outsiders, pro football focus, pro football reference, fantasy pros
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