Betting Blind 2021: Week 6 Plays

23 Oct Betting Blind 2021: Week 7 Plays

Posted at 18:10h in Articles, Betting by
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Betting Blind 2021: Week 7 Plays

Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.

All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.

All Lines from FanDual Sportsbook

 

We had some crazy results this past week. Most of the favorites not only won but covered. This was a wonderful day for the public. This means a downturn could be coming soon as Las Vegas hates to lose money. The lines should get sharper and with teams going on bye, there are less plays available for wagering. But we are going to keep going and keep making you some money for the upcoming holidays. Let us go.

 

Season record: (4-2)

 

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens: Bengals +6.5

These are no longer your father’s Bengals. No longer are they the laughingstock of the AFC North. A team set to be dominated weekly by opponents. Not only has Joe Burrow changed the trajectory of the franchise, but he has also led a passing attack which will allow Cincinnati to test the severely injured defense of the Baltimore Ravens in this game.

Joe Mixon Jr. is still a mystery. People love him for fantasy. Yet, he is constantly dinged up. This week, it may not matter. Not only is Mixon good enough to keep Baltimore honest but the receivers in Cincinnati are legitimately good. This has allowed Burrow to raise his passing profile in recent weeks as elite rookie Ja’Marr Chase joins Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins.

Chase has dominated this season. He will continue to dominate on Sunday against a Ravens defense which is lacking due to injury attrition. With the offense in Cincinnati being the best it has been in many years, they should have no issues scoring in this game against their division foe. On the other hand, the Baltimore Ravens are not just banged up on defense, this has carried over to the offense.

After the trade of Orlando Brown Jr. this off season, the Ravens were counting on All-Pro tackle Ronnie Stanley to be back and anchor the offensive line. As of this week, Stanley joins the litany of other Ravens players on season-ending injured reserve after requiring season-ending ankle surgery. This, along with the ravaging if the running back depth has really tested Baltimore on offense in 2021. Thus far, Lamar Jackson has come up big. He has continued to be the massive run threat of old, but with the added dimension of throwing the ball as well.

Marquise Brown still has the drops, but with the only other target being Mark Andrews, he is still getting the work needed to be a top fantasy wide receiver. The group only gets a boost as rookie Rashod Bateman has returned, and although only catching four passes for 29 yards, showed in his first game the skill and reason Baltimore took him in Round 1 in this year’s NFL draft.

Baltimore is a good team. Otherwise, they would not be 5-1. But a lot of this has to do with luck on top of skill. They have caught teams at the right time, and they have also played many home games to start the season. There is a good chance they do win this game against the Cincinnati Bengals. But the Bengals are getting much better and they are only one game back for the lead in the division. AFC North games tend to be exceptionally low scoring and physical. This is the main factor in this number being too high for me. Baltimore may win, they may lose. But The game does not deserve a line north of a field goal so I will take the value of the Bengals here. Give me the Bengals +6.5

 

Season record: (2-4)

 

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers: Colts +4.5

It finally seems that Carson Wentz is comfortable in the Colts offense. Although losing to Baltimore was not a great result, his 400 yards passing in the games showed he is finally getting a connection built and the offensive line is starting to come together.

T.Y. Hilton returned last week and immediately paid dividends against the Houston Texans. He left the game near the end, but hopefully he can return for this matchup.

Not only is Wentz finally showing why the Colts traded for him, Jonathan Taylor is starting to heat up as well. This included an 80-yard run last week to set up a short touchdown run on the drive. He has taken over early this season, unlike his rookie season of 2020 when it took until late November for him to truly emerge from his cocoon.

The 49ers on the other side of the ball are once again being extremely unlucky when it comes to injuries. Not only have they lost most of their running back group, but both quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance have dealt with issues. Some of which continue to plague them. After a bye week, we must hope the San Francisco secondary has had a chance to get fixed a bit. My guess is, they have not. They have been penalized often in the early season and they have not been playing up to the level they achieved even last season when they still had Richard Sherman to hold things down a bit. He is now in Tampa Bay and the team has struggled on this side of the ball.

With all the issues surrounding the 49ers, they are still going to be a run first team. With DeForest Buckner and Darius Leonard opposing them, this is going to be tough sledding this week. This game should be a drag out, low-scoring, boring game. I do not see either team jumping out big and running away with it. 4.5 points is too much in a game like this between two teams who are closer than this in talent. The home-field advantage in San Francisco is not as great as in other stadiums and there is too much value given to Kyle Shanahan coming off a bye in this one. Give me the Colts +4.5

 

Season record: (3-3)

 

Washington Football Team vs Green Bay Packers: Packers -7.5

This game opened at Packers -10. It is now down to -7.5. The public still really loves the Washington Football Team for some strange reason. Whatever the reason is, I will use their love to get a substantial number on the Packers here.

Not only is Aaron Rodgers on a mission this season, but he is also feeling himself after a big win against the Chicago Bears last week.

There are small concerns that Green Bay may be looking ahead to a game next week at Arizona, but I am going to think Rodgers has this team focused. And, as much as I loved Washington this preseason, they have been severely disappointing thus far and have not done anything to show they deserve any form of confidence this week. All the talent lies with Green Bay. Rodgers has the best receiver in the game in Davante Adams, the best running back in Aaron Jones, and most shockingly, the better defense. Something we did not expect coming into the season when Washington was expected to have the best unit in the NFL. Which has fallen flat with no pass rush and a mediocre secondary. Going against the likes of Rodgers and Adams, this game could be ugly early and then the Packers may ride Jones, A.J. Dillon, and the run game the second half.

Taylor Heinicke was a remarkable story. He had a few good games to start. But with Terry McLaurin ailing and Antonio Gibson set to miss this game, the weapons are depleted. Curtis Samuel has failed to make a contributions this season. He is going to miss another game. And with overlooked tight end Logan Thomas being on injured reserve, it is down to J.D. McKissic and Ricky Seals-Jones to be the offense. As much as I like McKissic, he cannot do it alone and it has been proven by the 2-4 record achieved in Washington so far in 2021.

Washington is a bad team. Green Bay is good and improving each week. This is a game of two teams going in differing directions and I am going to ride with the one headed north. Big numbers are hard to cover in the NFL. But I do not think this number is high. It is exactly right. So, give me the fighting cheese heads. Take the Packers -7.5.