30 Oct Betting Blind 2021: Week 8 Plays

Posted at 07:00h in Articles, Betting by
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Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.

All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.

All Lines from FanDual Sportsbook

 

After a slow start, we are off and running. Another 3-0 week feels good for the wallet. Not to mention the ego. With only two teams, the Raiders and Ravens on bye, we have more games to choose from this week. I hope this means even more chances to pick some winners for you.

 

Season record: (5-2)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Seattle Seahawks: Jaguars +3.5

I know, I know. How can I trust the Jaguars to go across the country and keep it close against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks? Oh, that is right, it is not Wilson, it is Geno Smith. And this is exactly why I like the Jaguars in this spot.

While it might be strange to think, the Jaguars have the best quarterback on the field in this matchup. With Leviska Shenault and Marvin Jones Jr. on the field, he has receivers who are good enough to beat the cornerbacks of the Seahawks. Not to mention that, with Chris Carson missing, James Robinson is the best running back in this game. This will allow Jacksonville to control the game flow and keep their defense off the field.

We know what D.K. Metcalf can do. Even last week, in an ugly loss, he had an 84-yard touchdown catch. But with Smith throwing the ball, this is not something we can count on every week. Tyler Lockett has big games every year. But he seems to disappear for the rest of the season and with Wilson out, his potential big game is far from certain.

With both of these teams being bad and Geno Smith starting again, the Seahawks should not be favored by more than a field goal. I really like Jacksonville money line in this spot but to be safe and to get the added cushion, I will take them with the points in a great spot coming off a bye. Give me the Jaguars +3.5

 

Season record: (3-4)

 

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts: Colts -2.5

I just cannot quit the Colts. They are a good team, and they played their best game on the road in the pouring rain last week against the 49ers. Carson Wentz has improved each week and the return of Quenton Nelson paid immediate returns last week.

While Derrick Henry is the best player in this game, Jonathan Taylor is not far behind him. Both running backs will have solid games, although the Colts defense is much stronger against the run than the Titans defense is. This could make all the difference as Henry could be held out of the end zone for a second straight week.

Ryan Tannehill was a favorite for fantasy Twitter this preseason. Thus far, he has disappointed. Still solid, he has not put up the numbers we expected when the team went out and traded for Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons. In a physical, divisional matchup, I do not think he will get it going this week. I like Carson Wentz ever so slightly over Tannehill in this game.

Tennessee shut down the Kansas City Chiefs last week and many people saw this. This has them thinking the Titans are better than they really are. Their defense is below average, and they have suffered injuries which will make them even worse. Rookie Caleb Farley is done for the year as is Kristian Fulton, their pick in the draft last season who was starting to break out. This leaves the secondary vulnerable and the Colts will exploit this as they try to incorporate Michael Pittman as well as T.Y. Hilton. I think they will get it done this week.

I loved this early line at Colts +1. As we know, I use the number as it lies at the time of writing, and it has now moved to Colts -2.5. I still like it at this point. I do not see a blowout. I do see a Colts victory. Take the Colts -2.5

 

Season record: (4-3)

 

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills: Bills -14

This game could and should be higher on my list this week. I really like the Buffalo Bills coming off a bye week against this overmatched Miami Dolphins team which seems to have given up a bit. The only hesitation I have is the substantial number. While large numbers are not covered in the NFL, they have been this season at a staggering rate. My hesitation whether this is a new trend or something which will revert to the mean makes me weary of making this a higher play. Saying this, I love the Bills in this spot.

Josh Allen is ready to smash the Dolphins. Earlier this season, in a spot I felt was great for Miami, Allen led the Bills to a 35-0 victory in Miami. This game started the current slide of Miami and will lead to the possible firing of Brian Flores this off season if things do not straighten out. On top of this, the Dolphins throw the ball at a staggering 70% rate. The highest in the NFL. With Tua behind center and no solid wide receivers to speak of, this does not bode well against a Buffalo defense anchored by Tre’Davious White and the secondary. The Bills should easily swallow up the Dolphins receiving game here and lead them to rely on a ground game which has been dismal to this point. Even if this game does not hit the over, the Buffalo defense is elite enough to shut out the Dolphins yet again. This time at home.

For Buffalo, the stakes are much higher. After their loss to Tennessee in Week 6, they have now dropped out of the No. 1 seed in the AFC. With easy games upcoming, starting with this one, they need to keep winning to overtake the Raiders and Bengals. Yes, I really said overtake and those two teams in the same sentence. What a world.

Stefon Diggs has not broken out yet, Emmanuel Sanders is the leading receiver on Buffalo right now. But we know what Diggs is and what he can do. With Byron Jones and Xavier Howard ailing for Miami, both Diggs and Sanders will have an opportunity for monster games this week. Dawson Knox is out but it will not matter this week. With Josh Allen leading the way and the defense ready to shut down a mediocre Dolphins offense, this game just feels like a blowout. Give me the Bills -14