05 Nov Betting Blind 2021: Week 9 Plays
Betting Blind 2021: Week 9 Plays
Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.
All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from FanDual Sportsbook
Well, 1-2 was not the type of week I wanted last week. But we are back and ready with some more plays this week. As a bonus, I also want to add in Dallas -9.5 over Denver. It did not make the cut for the top three, but it is a genuinely nice line in a good spot for Dallas against a reeling Denver team with a mediocre defense. With Dak Prescott back for the Cowboys, they can use the pass game and the run game to crush the rest of the spirit in the Broncos. After this game though, it may be time to fade the Cowboys. Their value is getting far too bloated. But if this number stays under 10, bet on them for one more week.
Season record: (5-3)
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals: Bengals -2.5
Why do I continue to bet on these Bengals? They cost me my survivor pool last week, and this week they take on in-state rivals Cleveland. But we just cannot quit them. Not right now anyway.
Cleveland is a bit of a mess now. I love them. But they are a mess. Whether it be the injury suffered by Baker Mayfield, one which has limited him and should cause him to sit out. Or, the injury to the ego of Odell Beckham Jr. which has caused a rift which may not be healed. This team is falling apart at the seams.
Last season when this happened, the run game was still there to count on. Although Beckham Jr. did nothing, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were there. As was Jarvis Landry. With Hunt out a few more weeks and Landry missing time, the Browns offense is nothing like what we expected to see in 2021. The team, although good, is flawed and losing Jack Conklin at right tackle will only make things even worse.
The Bengals on the other hand have not only played over their heads on offense, they have played over their heads on defense as well. In a surprise season for many around the league, the Cincinnati defense is a Top 10 unit. Something we certainly did not think we would be saying at any point.
With the defense playing great, the offense does not have to be super, it just has to be good. But it is super. Despite the loss last week against the Jets, the Bengals still put up 31 points. Joe Burrow has shown that he is fully healthy and rookie Ja’Marr Chase is a monster in the passing game. Add to the passing prowess the rushing attack of Joe Mixon Jr., and even Chris Evans, and the Bengals could have the best offense in the division. Who would have thought you could say that entering the season?
With the defense playing as well as it is in Cincinnati and the offense keeping pace, the Bengals are shockingly the better team in this game. With the struggles Cleveland is facing, I do not like their chances entering this game and for the rest of the season. In a game which is usually close, I will take the team favored by less than a field goal. Take the Bengals -2.5
Season record: (3-5)
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints: Over 41.5
Although the last time these teams met in 2020 the score ended up 21-16 Saints, the normal way this game goes is more high scoring. Despite the loss of Jameis Winston for the Saints and Calvin Ridley for the Falcons last week, I see this game playing out like contemporary trends for them.
The New Orleans Saints defense is far better than that of the Falcons unit. They should be able to shut down Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis in the run game. With Ridley gone, they should also be able to focus their coverage to Kyle Pitts hampering the Falcons ability to score. So why am I still taking the over here? Gut.
Although I do not think these teams are going to get into a shootout and get into the 40s, I can easily see both teams getting into the low 20s and this is all we need for such a dwindling number to hit.
Matt Ryan will still be able to find Patterson in the pass game and Kyle Pitts should do enough to get a touchdown for Atlanta. With Trevor Siemian starting for New Orleans, a pick six or another form of short field could be in play for the Atlanta offense and Matt Ryan.
New Orleans on the other hand now knows they will be without Michael Thomas for the rest of the season. Marquez Callaway and Adam Trautman will have to take over and do even more down the stretch. As for the run game, it is covered well. Alvin Kamara has yet to have his breakout game and it may come this week. The team also brought back fan favorite Mark Ingram to help. A move which may not get high grades but will severely benefit the team moving forward without Jameis Winston. With Kamara handling the pass catching work and Ingram the rush work, the offense will continue to be solid in New Orleans. The talent of Kamara and a healthy offensive line will keep the Saints putting points on the board. Especially against a suspect defense like the Falcons.
I do not love either side in this game. Therefore, I am staying away from the point spread. But 41.5 is too low for a total in this matchup. Although the teams may struggle to get started, they will finish strong. Take the game total over 41.5
Season record: (5-3)
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins: Texans -6.5
This is an ugly game, and the analysis is going to be short and to the point.
Tyrod Taylor may be back for this game. If he is, this point spread is far too high and will drop to -4 or -4.5 for Miami. This means there are two points of value in this line. Even if Davis Mills does have to play, both teams are coming in on seven game losing streaks and neither should be favored by a touchdown. This line is shady, and Las Vegas is trying to get you to take the Dolphins at home. Do not take the bait. The Texans are bad. But so are the Dolphins. Give me the Texans to cover the line and keep it close if not win. Take the Texans +6.5
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.