23 Sep Betting Blind: Week 3 Plays
Betting Blind: Week 3 Plays
Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.
After two tough weeks to start the season, I try to make a comeback this week with some plays I normally would not make. These include betting against the Super Bowl Champs and taking a double-digit favorite to cover. Hopefully, these risks will lead to better results.
All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
New York Jets vs Denver Broncos – Broncos -10.5
There are many things Teddy Bridgewater does not do well. On the other hand, one thing he does extremely well is to cover point spreads.
After two straight road games to start the season, the Denver Broncos return home to take on an over-matched New York Jets team. The Jets are coming off a disastrous game in which quarterback Zack Wilson threw four interceptions against the New England Patriots.
The Broncos defense may be without Bradley Chubb, but their secondary led by rookie Patrick Surtain Jr. is living up to its reputation thus far in 2021. On top of this, Von Miller has been rejuvenated and this means the pass rush will be able to get pressure on Wilson.
On the other side of the ball, Melvin Gordon showed he still has legs with a 70-yard run against Jacksonville. Although Jerry Jeudy will miss more time, Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant can provide enough offense. Especially against a team like the New York Jets. Although Joe Douglas has made all the right moves since becoming General Manager, it will take time to correct the ills which are facing the Jets. This is not the season, and this is certainly not the week to expect them to turn things around.
Wilson looks lost, and with an ailing set of weapons including Jamison Crowder and Denzel Mims both missing time, the skill position set is not yet up to par for New York to truly compete here. Take the Broncos -10.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams – Rams +1.5
This game started with the Rams as 1.5 point favorites. It immediately switched to the Buccaneers as the public has done everything but mortgage their houses to bet the Bucs. When in doubt, fade the public.
Tampa Bay may be the better team, but they are not clearly better. Besides this, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey are going to be opposite Tom Brady on Sunday. Their presence will make an enormous difference in the outcome of this matchup. Not to mention that Antonio Brown is now on the COVID list and will miss this game. This will give Tampa Bay one less wide receiver for the Rams to cover. As they get pressure on Brady all day with Donald, Arians will find it difficult to draw up explosive plays to keep drives going.
Matthew Stafford has looked revitalized since coming to Los Angeles. It is finally being on a good team, and it is finally seeing the sun after so many years in Detroit. Either way, his connection with Cooper Kupp, including nine receptions for 163 yards and two touchdowns in Week 2, will continue to be a factor this week.
The secondary of the Buccaneers has struggled to stop wide receivers so far this season. They have given up touchdowns to the likes of CeeDee Lamb and Calvin Ridley in the first two games. Kupp may not be quite on their level, but he is close. Paired with Robert Woods, and with the arm Stafford still has, this could be the most dangerous opponent the Buccaneers have faced on offense yet this season. Not to mention, this will be the first road game for the Super Bowl champions of the new season.
This game is not likely to be a blow out in either direction. Obviously, Las Vegas feels the same with such a small line. But the wrong team is favored here so I will take the points given to me with the home team. Take the Rams +1.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans – Colts+5.5
This is more of a speculative play on my part. I think Carson Wentz will play. If he does, this line should be closer to -3 than -5.5.
Tennessee went into Seattle and was extremely lucky to escape with a victory. Derrick Henry bounced back after a rough first week to combine for 237 yards against the Seahawks. The Colts defense is far superior to the Seahawks. They could also be getting Darius Leonard back for this game. This would be a huge lift for a team which desperately needs one.
Division games never go the way you expect them to. Despite the records, these are the two best teams in the AFC South. As sad as it is to think this, it is true, and this means the 5.5 points is far too high a number.
While the Colts defense is good, the Titans defense is just as bad as we thought it was. They have been exploited by both Arizona and Seattle in the first two weeks. While the Indianapolis offense is not as lethal or as full of weapons as the previous two opponents, Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines as well as Michael Pittman can provide enough for them to hang tight with the Titans.
In what is likely to be an ugly low-scoring game, look for the Indianapolis Colts to remain competitive and even get their first win of the 2021 season. Take the Colts +5.5
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.