01 Oct Betting Blind: Week 4 Plays
We got in a bit of a groove last week. We finally got some wins and some money to play with. So, as they said in the under-rated 1980’s movie RAD, let us play.
Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season. Here are Betting Blind: Week 4 Plays.
- All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
- All Lines from FanDuel Sportsbook
Season record: (2-1)
Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers
Seahawks ML +124
Is there a world in which Russell Wilson loses three games in a row? I do not think so. But I can see one thing, the 49ers are overrated. There is no other reason for them to be favored over the Seahawks in this game. I know the 49ers are playing at home. I even know their defense is decent. But this is where the talent gap starts and stops.
Not only is Wilson a better quarterback than either Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance, but the weapons he has around him are also better. D.K. Metcalf finally had a touchdown last week against the Minnesota Vikings, as did Chris Carson. With both players finding their way alongside Tyler Lockett, the offense for Seattle will be able to exploit an overmatched San Francisco secondary.
While the Seattle defense is not what it used to be, it is good enough to hold down the 49ers offense. That is all we need in this one. George Kittle has been mediocre thus far in 2021. The duo of Debo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk have been solid, but it is not enough. With Elijah Mitchell nursing a shoulder injury and Trey Sermon coming off a concussion against the Eagles, an already undermanned run game is even more lacking. It might be time to realize that yes, Kyle Shanahan is a wonderful coach and offensive mind, but just maybe, the Super Bowl season was a fluke and not the other losing seasons he has had. I for one am following my gut and the talent and taking Seattle in this one to win outright. Take Seahawks ML.
Season record: (1-2)
Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys defense has played better than many had expected. On the other side of the field, Sam Darnold has completely surprised in Carolina. Which one is for real is a question which will need to be answered. One or neither may be true for the long haul.
Dallas is coming off a short week after a division game against Philadelphia on Monday night. While they owned the Eagles, it was still a divisional game which can be more taxing than a normal game against a bad team. With Carolina coming into this game on a mini-bye after their Week 3 Thursday night game against Houston, they should be well rested.
The Panthers are going to be playing this game without Christian McCaffrey after he pulled his hamstring last week. We saw last season that an inured CMC is not the be all end all for Carolina. Last year, they relied on Mike Davis. This year, it will be rookie Chuba Hubbard, a talented back out of Oklahoma State with the same skill set as Davis. This will allow the Panthers to stay in the same offensive scheme heading into the week and allow the top-ranked defense to try to take over the game.
This line should be closer to -2 or -2.5 in favor of Dallas. The public nature of the Cowboys and their nationally televised drubbing of Philadelphia being the last memory of them has inflated this number past the -3 threshold. I am going with pure value here. Both these teams are even when it comes to their play this season. So, I will take the underdog in this matchup. I hope Sam Darnold pays off my trust in him in a big way. Take the Panthers +4.5
Season record: (0-3)
Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets
I wish I had drafted this article earlier in the week. This line has fallen a full 1.5 points since then. Despite this, and despite the Jets only scoring 10 points in their last two games, I still like the number here.
Tennessee had a miserable Week 1 against the Arizona Cardinals. They followed this up by being smashed for the first half of the Seahawks game before making a remarkable comeback and winning in overtime. When push came to shove in Week 3 and they returned home, they barely prevailed over a bad Colts team. A Colts team who lost their best player in Quenton Nelson during the game and had a quarterback with two sprained ankles. Now they go on the road.
Not only do they go on the road, but they also get to do so likely missing both of their starting receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. As good as Derrick Henry is, even he cannot do everything by himself for an entire game. He is still the best player on the field in this game, but for once, it may not be enough.
The Tennessee defense is terrible. The Jets offense is not much better but at least they have a run game and a pass game they can use to some extent. They can also slow this game down a lot and limit possessions. Therefor, I am not asking for them to win the game, I am just asking them to keep it within a touchdown. In a low-scoring matchup, they could do this. In fact, I do think there is a solid chance they win the game outright. But why risk it? Take the Jets +7
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Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.