Betting Blind 2021: Week 6 Plays

15 Oct Betting Blind: Week 6 Plays

Posted at 20:05h in Articles, Betting by
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Betting Blind: Week 6 Plays

Each week of the 2021 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each Friday of the NFL season.

All lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.

All Lines from FanDual Sportsbook

Well, we are finally starting to find a groove. We went 3-0 last week and will look to keep the train moving in the right direction as we move closer to the middle of the NFL season. This is the first week with teams on a bye, so there are less games to choose from. But we still have a lot to love. So let us make some money.

 

Season record: (4-1)

Kansas City Chiefs vs Washington Football Team: Over 55.5

Two weeks ago, the Chiefs and Eagles put up 61 points. Last week, the Chiefs and Bills put up 58. In each of those games, the Chiefs opponent had a solid defense. The Eagles are currently ranked eighth in DVOA, and the Bills are first. Washington and their defense are nowhere near as good. Not only as good as the other two defenses, but as good as we thought they would be heading into this year.

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill are going to score points. This is a given. What is just as certain, is their defense is going to allow points. To everyone.

Taylor Heinicke has done well with the weapons he has. He has found a connection with Terry McLaurin in the pass game and with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic in the back field. This team will also move the ball up and down the field on Sunday.

55.5 is a substantial number to hit. Especially in an NFL game. But this game could have so little defense that it hits by half time. Nothing has gone right for either of these teams this season. Both were expected to compete if not win their divisions and neither of them look to be on pace to do so. The Chiefs, the biggest betting favorite to win their division in the preseason, are currently in last place and if not for the putrid nature of the NFC East, Washington could have also been flirting with last in their division.

The winner of this game is quite possible the team which can get one stop. And this is what we are hoping for here. Only one stop. This game has shootout written all over it, so give me the points. Take the Over 55.5.

 

Season record: (2-3)

Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns: Browns -3

This one might get me. But I must roll with it.

Arizona has been great thus far this season. They are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and Kyler Murray is playing at an MVP level. They also have had a defense which has been better than expected.

Murray has DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk balling out. Rondell Moore has also had some major flashes in his rookie season. Out of the backfield, James Connor has come back from a disappointing 2020 which saw him not be re-signed by the Steelers. Along with Chase Edmonds, the leader in receptions for the Cardinals, the duo has given Arizona a run game. Something they have lacked in many recent years.

The Cleveland Browns are coming off what may go down as the best game of the entire 2021 season when all is said and done. Although they lost 47-42 against the Chargers, they showed their explosive abilities in doing so. They also have Myles Garrett, the player who, if not for Trevon Diggs, might be the best defensive player in the NFL thus far. On top of Garrett, Jadeveon Clowney has had a solid resurgence as well. If the Browns can finally get fully healthy in the secondary, they will be a formidable test for any team late in the season.

On offensive, the Browns revolve around the run game. As good as Connor and Edmonds have been for Arizona, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb have been even better for the Browns. They are the best running back duo in the NFL and their varying skill sets meld together in perfect harmony behind possible the best offensive line in the league. With Odell Beckham Jr. healthy and Austin Hooper along with David Njoku at the tight end position, Baker Mayfield has the weapons in the pass game to rely on when the run game needs a rest. But they will not need one here.

Despite the difference in records, the Browns are the better team in this game. Cleveland is also going to be playing at home. Something which would be a bigger deal late in the season but will still play a part in this one. I like the story of the Cardinals and how well they have played, but I love the Browns. Being able to get them at a field goal is impressive and I will take it. Give me the Browns -3.

 

Season record: (2-3)

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots: Cowboys -3.5

It is difficult to imagine, but the Patriots are 0-3 at home this season. They have only won two games and both were on the road against terrible opponents in the New York Jets and the Houston Texans. On the other hand, Dallas has lost just one game. The opening game of the NFL season against Tampa Bay and Tom Brady.

Coming into this game, the Cowboys are playing better than they have in many years. Ezekiel Elliott looks like a new man with best friend Dak Prescott behind center. Along with Elliott, Tony Pollard has made major strides in his game. This allows Kellen Moore to give Elliott a breather without sacrificing anything in their game plan. And of course, we all know how good CeeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper are.

The real key to a Dallas turnaround this season is the defense. Micah Parsons is a man. Whether he is playing at linebacker or moving up front to defensive end, he has been the best rookie defensive player this season. On top of this, Trevon Diggs just might be the best all-around defensive player this season. Not bad for a defense which came into the season as potentially the worst unit in the NFL.

When it comes to New England, we do not know what we are going to get. The Patriots want to run the ball, but their offensive line has not been up to par. With Mac Jones, they have a solid rookie quarterback. They do not have the wide receivers for him to get the ball to though. This makes it extremely challenging for Josh McDaniel’s to call productive plays. The defense, once a mainstay, has also been underwhelming this season. Despite holding a vaunted Buccaneers offense to below 20 points, this was due to the inclement weather and not the defensive prowess. They are going to have a much tougher time with Dallas. Not only can the Cowboys throw the ball just as well as Tampa Bay, but they also have a run game. Something the Buccaneers did not. I do not expect this game to be close. The Patriots are getting a lot of credit for Bill Belichick and past results with this line. I could be wrong, but I love Dallas in this situation. Especially at only -3.5 Give me the Cowboys -3.5.