15 Oct Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 6
Defense Adjusted Line Yards Metric: Week 6: Running Back Stud, Dud, Sleeper, and Start of the Week
For a full breakdown on what we are doing for this article go read the intro of the Week 5 article here.
Below is a chart that breaks down Football Outsiders adjusted line yards metric. We then for this analysis factored in the opponents they faced so far in 2021 to get a more accurate assessment of the true push an offensive line gets and a defensive line allows. This allowed us to create a new adjusted line yards metric. This new adjusted line yard metric is shown in the chart below from the best to worst matchups on the week.
| OFF | OFF New ALY | DEF | DEF New ALY | ALY Matchup Metric | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 5.22 | NE | 4.48 | 4.85 |
| 2 | TB | 4.92 | PHI | 4.58 | 4.75 |
| 3 | JAX | 4.94 | MIA | 4.33 | 4.64 |
| 4 | LAR | 4.54 | NYG | 4.72 | 4.63 |
| 5 | CHI | 4.64 | GB | 4.62 | 4.63 |
| 6 | GB | 4.84 | CHI | 4.31 | 4.58 |
| 7 | BUF | 4.45 | TEN | 4.47 | 4.46 |
| 8 | CIN | 4.28 | DET | 4.61 | 4.44 |
| 9 | IND | 4.15 | HOU | 4.72 | 4.44 |
| 10 | CLE | 4.39 | ARI | 4.38 | 4.39 |
| 11 | DEN | 4.06 | LV | 4.5 | 4.28 |
| 12 | WAS | 4.07 | KC | 4.48 | 4.28 |
| 13 | KC | 4.75 | WAS | 3.79 | 4.27 |
| 14 | MIA | 4.03 | JAX | 4.4 | 4.22 |
| 15 | CAR | 3.78 | MIN | 4.63 | 4.21 |
| 16 | LAC | 4.66 | BAL | 3.73 | 4.2 |
| 17 | BAL | 3.69 | LAC | 4.62 | 4.16 |
| 18 | NE | 3.76 | DAL | 4.37 | 4.07 |
| 19 | PIT | 3.83 | SEA | 4.29 | 4.06 |
| 20 | SEA | 4.12 | PIT | 3.79 | 3.96 |
| 21 | HOU | 3.53 | IND | 4.36 | 3.95 |
| 22 | TEN | 4.33 | BUF | 3.37 | 3.85 |
| 23 | MIN | 3.91 | CAR | 3.79 | 3.85 |
| 24 | LV | 3.54 | DEN | 4.08 | 3.81 |
| 25 | DET | 4.25 | CIN | 3.31 | 3.78 |
| 26 | ARI | 3.96 | CLE | 3.56 | 3.76 |
| 27 | NYG | 3.54 | LAR | 3.9 | 3.72 |
| 28 | PHI | 4.08 | TB | 3.15 | 3.61 |
Chart Key
Metric Rank – This is the number rank 1-32 of the offense in the new adjusted line yard metric
Offense – This column represents the team offense for the analysis
New OFF ALY – This represents the new offensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
Defense – This column represents the team defense for the analysis
New DEF ALY – This represents the new defensive adjusted line yards metric that includes who the offense has played so far this season.
ALY Matchup Metric – This metric combines the offense vs. the defensive opponent for this week to see which offense has the best matchups on the week. This should help us identify which RBs to buy and fade for this week
Stud of the Week
Team: Green Bay Packers
Opponent: Chicago Bears
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 6
Primary Impacted Player: Aaron Jones
After a monster Week 2 performance vs. the Lions, Aaron Jones has cooled off a bit as of late. Jones has failed to crack the top 15 in the past 3 games and the top 20 in the last 2 at the RB position. There are a few things driving this lack of production for Jones. First, is the emergence of A.J. Dillon who has seen 36 touches in the last 3 games. The good news for Jones owners is 11 of 29 carries have come in the 4th quarter during this span. This means they are using Dillon mostly to either kill clock or give Jones a breather. The second is matchups, as the Packers have faced 3 straight bottom 10 in new ALY run game matchups in a row.
This week the matchup isn’t great vs. the Bears, but it is a lot better than what Jones has seen over the last few weeks. The average new ALY of Green Bay’s opponents was 3.62 which is significantly lower than then the 4.31 the Bears have so far in 2021. This matchup upgrade should immediately vault Jones back into the top 10 making him a great play in DFS in Week 6.
(Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor)
Start of the Week
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 2
Primary Impacted Player: Leonard Fournette
It seems that due to the presence of Gio Bernard and Ronald Jones most people don’t view Leonard Fournette yet as a workhorse. Fournette this season is 15th in the NFL in touches averaging 15 per game. Of those touches, 19 have come through the air which puts him 6th among RBs in receptions on the season. We have yet to see Fournette’s ceiling as he has only scored 1 TD on the season. Based on his 75 total touches Fournette’s 1.3% TD rate on those touches only puts him behind Chase Edmonds, Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard in TD rate (50 MIN touches).
This week, Fournette gets a plus draw vs. a struggling Eagles run D. The Eagles in years past have been dominate vs. the run, but this year it has been the opposite. Since Week 3, the Eagles allowed at least 95 yards to each lead back including Zeke Elliott (95), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (102) and Chuba Hubbard (101). Based on his recent usage Fournette is a must start in Week 6.
(Honorable Mention: Darrell Henderson)
Sleeper of the Week
Team: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: Tennessee Titans
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 7
Primary Impacted Player: Zack Moss
After being inactive in Week 1, Zack Moss has seen his usage steadily rise each week for the Bills. This includes Moss getting his biggest usage to date in Week 5. Last week marked just the 2nd time this season Moss saw more carries than Devin Singletary, 11 to 6. That marked the biggest differential by far. On top of the ground game usage, Moss saw a big uptick in the pass game. Moss ran 18 routes to only 8 for Singletary. Not only did Moss run more routes than Singletary, but his 18 routes were two more than Cole Beasley. This led to solid pass game production of 3-55 on 4 targets. This increase in playing time has led to Moss becoming the RB15 for fantasy since being active in Week 2.
This week, the Bills take on a struggling Titans defense that has been beat up pretty much all year. Last week, James Robinson broke out for 149 rushing yards vs the Titans. This matchup and game flow vs. the Titans should bode well for Moss as he continues to be locked in as the lead back for Buffalo. This makes Moss a solid RB2 in Week 6.
(Honorable Mention: Damien Williams)
Dud of the Week
Team: Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: Denver Broncos
ALY Matchup Metric Rank: 24th
Primary Impacted Player: Josh Jacobs
Josh Jacobs continues to defy the efficiency odds as he found the end zone again in Week 5. From a fantasy perspective, Jacobs has continued to produce as he has scored 3 times in 3 games this year. However, that is all he has done through his first 3 games as he has failed to top 50 yards rushing or 20 yards receiving in any game this season. This is a dangerous game to play for fantasy mangers, if Jacobs doesn’t score then he will clearly hurt your fantasy team.
This week, the Raiders take on the Broncos who did spring a leak last week allowing a solid 23-122-1 line to Najee Harris. Prior to that game, the Broncos DST held down RBs James Robinson and Saquon Barkley to under 10 PPR fantasy points. Even if Jacobs finds the end zone this week, fantasy managers are looking at low-end RB2 numbers making him someone you should fade in Week 6.
(Honorable Mention: Chris Carson)
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