01 Oct Betting Blind: Week 4
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week – Betting Blind. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every week of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from Draft Kings Sportsbook
After suffering our first loss last week (8-1 overall), we will look to get back on track this week. It looks as if Las Vegas has finally caught up to the fact home field advantage is not as big an advantage as in normal seasons. We knew they would finally catch up. We were just hoping it did not happen so quickly.
Let us take a look at the best plays this week and make some coin.
*** Three Star Play *** (3-0)
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers – Over 51.5 points
Kyler Murray played the worst game of his career last week against Detroit with two touchdowns and three interceptions. It is easy to see how the Cardinals lost. It will not be the same this week.
Kenyan Drake has yet to fully break out yet. After all the preseason hype, he has yet to go over 100 yards rushing in any game. At the same time, DeAndre Hopkins is playing better than many thought he would in this offense. With over 100 yards in every game so far including 132 on 10 catches last week, he has re-established himself as the WR1 in the NFL this season.
On top of this the team has seemingly found a big play guy in second-year player Andy Isabella, who had two TDs on four receptions last week. If Christian Kirk comes back, the team could be unstoppable on offense.
The defense leaves a lot to be desires. Patrick Peterson is not the player he was early in his career and the team defense has not improved as much as hoped. With the Panthers defense being historically bad, their only chance against a good offense is to outscore them.
Teddy Bridgewater is what we thought: a game manager. He has been doing it extremely well for head coach Matt Rhule. With Christian McCaffrey still out for a few weeks, Mike Davis will continue to be the lead back. He has had eight receptions or more in both games that he has seen extended action thus far.
Nothing in the Arizona defense leads me to think this week will be any different.
In two of three weeks, Robby Anderson has had 100 yards receiving. As the WR2 in Carolina, he is set to have another one this week. D.J. Moore has yet to have a monster game. He is destined to be a Julio Jones type in the league; High targets, receptions and yards but lacking in the TD category.
As long as he continues to get those targets, he is a must-start for fantasy and a major asset for the Panthers. Look for him to also have a 100-yard game in this one.
I like Arizona -3 in this one, but like the over/under more. Neither team can play defense and it will show up on the scoreboard.
Take over 51.5
** Two Star Play ** (2-1)
Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins – Miami +6.5
Seattle has Russell Wilson, the MVP and also the best player in the NFL so far this season. They also have a bad defense which got worse with the injury to Jamal Adams last week against Dallas. With this in mind, the Seahawks will travel across the country in a matchup of two teams who reside the furthest apart of any two in the league.
This game is in Miami, a town known to give opposing teams fits. Not just due to the heat and humidity, but because of the atmosphere in the area.
Wilson comes into the game with 14 TD passes this year; Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are the best WR duo in the NFL. So far this season, Chris Carson has also been important in the pass game. In the first three games, he already has three receiving TDs. He is expected to miss this game after a cheap shot from the Dallas defense.
This leaves Carlos Hyde as the RB for the week. Although a 1,000 yard back just last season with Houston, he does not have the receiving chops of Carson. This will take away a part of the pass game Seattle has counted on so far.
On defense, Seattle has not been able to stop anyone. Dak Prescott compiled 470 yards and three TDs last week against them. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Prescott, but he can have his moments. This week can be one of those times where he turns into Fitzmagic.
DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki will have big weeks against a terrible Seahawks secondary. Jamal Adams had two of the Seahawks’ three sacks as a team coming into last week. With his absence, a pass rush will be difficult to find. Fitzpatrick will be able to continue the roll he started last week in Jacksonville and Miami can at least keep it close.
Unlike the Philadelphia game, I do not see Miami winning this game. I do see the -7 for Seattle being to high. People are overvaluing the Seahawks and not giving Miami their due. This line should be closer to Seattle -4 or -5.
Take Miami +6.5
* One Star Play * (3-0)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers – Philadelphia +7
Are the Eagles a good team? No. But they are better than they have showed thus far.
Both of these teams come in dealing with a myriad of injuries. The offensive line of Philadelphia is a shell of what it once was. Dallas Goedert was placed on IR, weakening the Eagles receivers group led by Zach Ertz and…Greg Ward. Miles Sanders will be called on even more in this game than normal, especially in the pass game to supplement the missing production.
The worst part of this team has been Carson Wentz. Currently leading the NFL with six interceptions, he will need to be much better in this matchup to keep it close.
While the offense is in shambles, the defense is actually solid. As much as Philly fans complain about Jim Schwartz, if not for him, their losses would have been even more lopsided this season. Darius Slay has brought a dimension to the secondary missing in the past few seasons and Brandon Graham is seemingly rejuvenated in 2020.
They will make it much harder on the 49ers than the Jets and Giants did the past two weeks.
The 49ers on the other hand have injuries on both sides of the ball. On offense they expect to be without starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo as well as their top two RB. Jerick McKinnon is also questionable and may also sit in this one. At wide receiver, Deebo Samuel for at least may return Week 4, although star TE George Kittle will be back.
On defense, the loss of Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas will start to hinder what San Francisco can do. It will take a toll on the rest of the defense and will allow Miles Sanders to finally get something going this week.
Everyone loves Nick Mullens. He had 348 pass yards last week and led the team to a crushing win over the Giants. Again, this was against the Giants and Daniel Jones. No matter what you may think of Wentz, he is better than Jones.
I may be betting blind, but I am not stupid enough to say the Eagles are going to win this game outright. I am, but I will not put money on it. I am willing to make a play that Philadelphia can cover though.
The Eagles may be flying west for this one, but they are coming off two home games. The 49ers are coming in off two consecutive weekly trips east. The fatigue may finally be too much, and the Eagles will capitalize on it.
Take Philadelphia +7
(edit: This line has jumped since original posting, and is now at Philadelphia +9)
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.