16 Oct Betting Blind: Week 6
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
So far, we are having a great season. An 80%-win percentage is nothing to sneeze at. Let us go into this week of games and try to get even better. And hopefully with no Corona difficulties.
*** Three Star Play *** (4-1)
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers – Rams -3
San Francisco is overmatched right now. Jimmy Garoppolo came back from his injury last week and underperformed to the point of being pulled from the game. If this is what happens against the Dolphins, we can only imagine what Aaron Donald and a legitimate defense can do against the 49ers.
The 49ers were lucky to get Deebo Samuel back in Week 5. He is slowly working his way into form but a matchup with Jalen Ramsey is not going to help. Even if Ramsey does not shadow, which is the case about half of the time, he will have to go against a very good Troy Hill. Not to the level of Ramsey, but Hill is not far off from that level.
With this duo guarding the pass game it will be difficult for the 49ers offense to get going again this week. The run game got a boost last week with Raheem Mostert returning. He will not be enough against a ram’s team who can put up points in so many ways.
Jared Goff is having a solid year behind center. Having the wide receiver group of Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp lends to success. Kupp is fully healthy this season and Woods is only one week removed from a long touchdown catch against Washington.
With the 49ers defense struggling and injured, the pass game will be used to set up the run game.
The Rams run game behind Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Cam Akers who is currently ranked number seven in the league. The Rams needed better play from their offensive line this season. To this point they are getting it and taking full advantage of it.
The NFC West is the best division in football. The Seahawks are on a bye and Los Angeles needs this win to remain one game back. The motivation for the team is there and Sean McVay will have them ready.
Take the Rams -3
** Two Star Play ** (3-2)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills – Over 57.5 points
Both of these teams were embarrassed last week, including 40-burgers dropped on them and in losses. We know both of these offenses can score on anyone. Las Vegas knows this as well. Hence the high total. But I still like it.
Patrick Mahomes played a bad game last week. There is no way around it. He is not going to have two bad games in a row.
With Sammy Watkins hurt, Mecole Hardman will take over as the WR2 for this week and it only takes one play for him to take the game over. With the Bills defense needing to worry about Tyreek Hill and Mahomes, this is possible.
The Chiefs offense is loaded. We have not even mentioned Travis Kelce or Clyde Edwards-Helaire yet and they could be the two most important parts. The are public concerns about the goal line inefficiencies of CEH with the multitude of chances he is receiving. That is the important part of the argument.
The touchdowns will come eventually with the work he is getting. As for Travis Kelce, there is nothing to say. He is the best tight end in the NFL and Mahomes knows it. He is currently the TE2 for fantasy and after a monster game this week, he could move up to number one.
The Bills played bad Tuesday night. They were also missing a lot of players, not to mention losing even more during the game. Josh Allen also had his first bad game of the season – it happens to everyone.
While Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes shoot out, the defenses will be lacking. Neither has played up to their preseason hype thus far. This is not the week to that either get right. Both offenses are too good to be kept down. This is not a game you will want to play the defenses.
I’m betting blind and expect the Kansas City Chiefs to go into Buffalo and win this game.
Take Over 57.5 points
* One Star Play * (5-0)
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings – Over 54.5 points
The lack of offense by Atlanta in recent weeks concerns me. But with Julio Jones hopefully back in this one, the offense should be better.
With Calvin Ridley on the other side against a bad Minnesota secondary, the pass game will regain a bit of form in this one. The run game of Todd Gurley, although not great, has scored a number of touchdowns this season.
With Danielle Hunter still out, the run defense for the Vikings remains dismal. Something Atlanta will exploit as they continue to run the ball far more than they did last season under new interim head coach Raheem Morris.
On the other side, Adam Thielen is quietly having a great season. Not only is he the number one receiver for the Vikings, he is also the WR 1 overall for fantasy managers. Justin Jefferson had a quiet week against the Seahawks in Week 5. In his previous two games, he had almost 300 yards receiving.
Alexander Mattison is a solid replacement for Cook. After the injury last week, Madison gained 120 yards on Seattle. Atlanta is no Seattle. – they might be worse.
On Betting Blind, we have seen it in multiple games -from Week 1 until last week – when two bad defenses go against each other, points are abundant. Especially when there are good offenses to go with it. In this case we have exactly that. Two bad defenses and two good offenses. Take the over.