23 Oct Betting Blind: Week 7
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
Coming off our first losing week of Betting Blind this season, it is time to buckle down and get back to the winning ways. With not many great games this week, there will not be many games you will want to wager on. So, let us find a few needles in the haystack for you to make some money with.
I may have one over/under this week, but I am going to try to get back to a few more lines in coming weeks. Las Vegas seems to finally be catching up to the weirdness that is 2020 and the over/unders are getting closer to the true numbers.
*** Three Star Play *** (4-2)
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams – Rams -6
Much like a game coming up later in our picks, Los Angeles went on a nationally televised game last week and stunk up the place. Every watched as a mediocre 49ers team behind a hobbling Jimmy Garoppolo took out their frustrations on the Rams.
On the other hand, we have Chicago. In a great defensive performance against a scrappy Carolina team, the Bears were able to go into Charlotte and pull out the victory. They now have to come in and beat a second straight team on the road. Two road wins in a row is tough enough. Doing it going from coast to coast adds another layer. Cue Betting Blind.
Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are the two best players in this game. Ramsey will line up most of the night against Allen Robinson. When he is not, the job will go to Troy Hill. Either way this is going to be a long night for Robinson as he tries to get open. With Aaron Donald clogging up the middle, David Montgomery could be in for an extremely long night as well.
This will lead to frustration for not only Montgomery and Robinson but also Nick Foles. Foles will have no time to find receivers or dump off passes to his backs. The leading receiver in this game for Chicago could easily be Jimmy Graham. If this happens, it will not be a good night in L.A. for the Bears.
The Rams have played one bad game this season. It came last week in a divisional game against the 49ers. Besides this game the defense has been stellar and the offense has been solid. The run game is finally coming into form behind Darrell Henderson.
Jared Goff is having a bounce back season after a dismal 2019. Cooper Kupp is still a top-flight slot receiver, and Robert Woods is a down field threat to help stretch the field for the run game. Everything on the Rams offense is working except Tyler Higbee. Everything else is great and it will be this week as the Rams come back from an ugly road loss with an impressive home win.
Take the Rams -6
** Two Star Play ** (3-3)
Green Bay Packers at Houston Texans – Packers -3.5
Aaron Rodgers was embarrassed last week. He was embarrassed by his play as well as the Tampa Bay defense. We have seen so far this season the Packers beat up on bad teams. Enter the Houston Texans. Their defense is slow and without DeAndre Hopkins, it has taken a while for the offense to come into focus.
One thing the Packers defense can do well is cover the pass. One thing the Texans cannot do well is run the ball. This is a matchup of weakness against weakness and strength against strength. Let us just say I trust the coaching in Green Bay more than I do the coaching in Houston.
The Packers will be ready for this game. Aaron Rodgers may not throw two more interceptions the rest of the season. Let alone in one game like last week. Aaron Jones was quiet last week as well. Besides his first quarter score, he had a total of 40 yards from scrimmage. In this game, you can add a one to the front of the 40.
Davante Adams is also a week further out from his hamstring injury. In his first game back last week, he had a respectable line of 6/61 on 11 targets. Look for him to also gain over 100 yards in a juicy matchup.
Deshaun Watson is great. His surrounding cast? Not so much. Will Fuller has been solid when healthy, and his health improves the Houston passing attack. We can only hope it lasts. Brandin Cooks has had a resurgence since Bill O’Brien was let go. If he continues the trend this week, the game could get interesting.
I still do not think Houston has the firepower to stay with Green Bay, especially with the Packers coming off a bad loss and needing this win to stay with the Bears in the NFC North.
Look for a QB duel between two of the best in the game, but expect the Packers defense to get the only stop of the game when it is needed.
Take the Packers -3.5
* One Star Play * (6-0)
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team – Cowboys +1
Everyone saw Dallas get manhandled on Monday night. This makes the public go all in on the Washington football team. There were many factors which led to such a bad performance though.
Yes, the Dallas defense is statistically the worst in the NFL. This will remain an issue all season but it will not be as big an issue against Washington, a team who just finds ways to lose each week. Andy Dalton was also getting his first start and it was in prime time. We know how he plays in prime time. It will not be a problem this week as even the most fervent football fan will have this on only as background noise.
Ron Rivera showed the confidence he has (or does not have) in his defense last week by going for two instead of trying to go to overtime. The secondary is a mess. Against Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, they will be exploited all afternoon. Michael Gallup might actually make an appearance as well. Ezekiel Elliott and the run game for Dallas will also be better this week.
The offensive line does concern me. Already down two linemen, Zack Martin was hurt last week and we will need to see how bad the injury is to the All-Pro guard. Despite all these concerns for Dallas, they are still the better team here.
Washington, as I said, cannot get out of its own way. Going back and forth between not only quarterback but also running back is not a recipe for success. Antonio Gibson is a good player, but he has not been getting the call lately. The calls have been going the way of J.D. McKissic. Behind another awful offensive line, having turmoil at the running back and quarterback positions is a bad situation.
While the front four of the Washington defense is good, the rest is lacking. The coaching staff did not trust them last week against the Giants, why should we trust them this week against the Cowboys? Golden Tate, Darius Slayton, and Devonta Freeman are a far cry from Cooper, Lamb, and Elliott. So in a matchup of terrible defenses, take the better offense.