12 Sep The Opportunity Analysis – Names to Monitor Week 1
The Opportunity Analysis – Names to Monitor Week 1
Last season the top teams in the opportunity analysis would have helped us identify key players including Darren Waller, John Brown, and Terry McLaurin. Heading into 2020 we have a chance to find top sleepers based on their late round ADP and the amount of opportunities heading into this season. This list will comprise of players who currently are being drafted after pick 140 in 12-team leagues who could be on your waiver wire.
Washington Football Team
Opportunity Analysis Rank: 1
Available Opportunities: 264
Sleeper: Logan Thomas (ADP Undrafted)
As I wrote in the Washington Football Team Opportunity Analysis earlier this year, the targets are wide open behind Terry McLaurin for this team. This offseason Washington had a complete overhaul as they brought in new offensive coordinator Scott Turner to bring the system he ran in Carolina to D.C.
This offense has helped produce TE1 seasons from players including Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph, and Greg Olsen. Camp reports are saying Logan Thomas is becoming QB Dwayne Haskins’s go-to guy in the red zone. Even in a tough Week 1 match-up against the Philadelphia Eagles, tracking his routes and targets will be key because Week 2 is a mouth watering match-up versus the Arizona Cardinals.
Opportunity Analysis Rank: 2
Available Opportunities: 226
Sleeper: Olabisi Johnson (ADP Undrafted)
A lot of excitement about rookie Justin Jefferson is due to him being a first-round pick and a logical replacement for Stefon Diggs. However, the standout from camp has been Olabisi Johnson. Heading into his second season, Johnson looks to have put his stamp on the #2 WR job.
The #2 WR job is going to be very important as the Vikings utilize a lot of 2-TE sets, which means the winner of that job could see a lot more work. Mostly undrafted in fantasy, Johnson could be worth the add to see if he can take the leap in his second season.
Opportunity Analysis Rank: 4
Available Opportunities: 193
Sleeper: Parris Campbell (ADP Pick 143)
Parris Campbell was recently concussed in a car accident, but reports say he should be ready for Week 1. Before the accident Campbell was becoming Philip Rivers’ #2 target in the pass game behind T.Y. Hilton. This is evident as Campbell has been listed as a starter ahead of rookie Michael Pittman Jr. and Zach Pascal.
Campbell looks be the main slot wide receiver, which is a very lucrative position in a Philip Rivers-led offense. Last season, Keenan Allen was in the top 12 in targets and target percentage from the slot. With both tight ends Jack Doyle and Trey Burton dealing with injuries, Campbell could be Rivers first read in the middle of the field to start the season.
Opportunity Analysis Rank: 5
Available Opportunities: 189
Sleeper: Russell Gage (ADP Undrafted)
I love Hayden Hurst, but the reality is the potential #3 weapon on this team could be the player who has been with Matt Ryan the last two years: Russell Gage. Last season, Gage was trusted into the starting lineup when Mohamed Sanu was traded, and Gage was not that bad.
After Week 7 Gage averaged 7.3 targets per game and had six games with at least five receptions.
Like fellow third year receiver Calvin Ridley, Gage made big strides in year two. Over the final eight weeks Gage posted a 38-344-1 line. If Gage could take another step, he could be someone with a solid PPR floor in an offense that should once again lead the league in pass attempts. Why not use your last roster spot on Gage to see if he takes the #3 role over Hurst?
New York Jets
Opportunity Analysis Rank: 9
Available Opportunities: 171
Sleeper: Chris Herndon (ADP Pick 148)
A tough Week 1 match-up versus Buffalo will keep people off Chris Herndon, but his season-long outlook is pointing up. Jamison Crowder looks to be the early leader to pace the team in targets, but Crowder already paced the team with 122 targets from 2019. This means the 171 available opportunities are up for grabs between Herndon, Breshad Perriman, and Denzel Mims.
Mims and Perriman have been limited all offseason while Herndon has been soaking up reps with starting QB Sam Darnold.
The Jets have tough cornerback match-ups for outside wide receivers, including Stephon Gilmore, Tre’Davious White, Byron Jones, Jalen Ramsey, and Patrick Peterson to name a few; Darnold will need to do a lot of his damage in the middle of the field.
Also for Herndon, his schedule gets a lot better after Week 2 as they play a pretty nice tight end schedule the rest of 2020. How good you ask? 11 of his final 14 opponents allowed at least 150 points to the tight end position last season. If Herndon shows anything in Week 1 or even gets seven-plus targets, he will be a must-grab because he will have TE1 value in 2020.