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Opportunity Analysis Week 7

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 7

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 7

TeamWeek 6 Drop-backsSeason Drop-Back averageSeason
Variance
New Orleans Saints*5137.613.4
Indianapolis Colts4534.710.3
Dallas Cowboys5952.36.7
Tennessee Titans43376
New York Jets4741.75.3
Washington Redskins4741.85.2
Los Angeles Rams39345
Minnesota Vikings3732.54.5
Green Bay Packers4137.43.6
Houston Texans43403
Philadelphia Eagles4745.51.5
Jacksonville Jaguars4745.71.3
Seattle Seahawks*41401
Carolina Panthers4039.30.7
Baltimore Ravens3332.50.5
*Week 5 Drop-Backs
Cleveland Browns3333.2-0.2
Atlanta Falcons4444.3-0.3
Los Angeles Chargers*3838.4-0.4
New England Patriots3435-1
Chicago Bears4042.7-2.7
San Francisco 49ers3438.3-4.3
Cincinnati Bengals4247.3-5.3
Detroit Lions3237.6-5.6
Miami Dolphins3237.7-5.7
Las Vegas Raiders*3238-6
Kansas City Chiefs3442.3-8.3
Buffalo Bills3140.3-9.3
Denver Broncos2737.2-10.2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers2939.3-10.3
Pittsburgh Steelers2535.4-10.4
Arizona Cardinals2838.7-10.7
New York Giants2138.5-17.5

Opportunity Analysis Buys

 

Arizona Cardinals

    • Week 6 Dropbacks: 28
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 38.7
    • Week 6 Variance: -10.7
    • Primary Impacted Player – Christian Kirk
    • Secondary Impacted Player – DeAndre Hopkins

 

Typically, a two-catch performance that results in a monster game would be a red flag from an opportunity perspective, but this week Christian Kirk has a shot to repeat his great performance from last week. In Week 6, the Cardinals only dropped back to pass 28 times, well below the season average.

This lower than normal pass volume should bounce back and then some as the Cardinals face a Seattle team that sees a a league high 51.8 dropbacks per game in 2020. This has resulted in no team allowing more points in the NFL to wide receivers than the Seahawks this season.

Week 7 Recommendation

Kirk is solid WR2/3 this week as this game should be full of pass volume. The Seahawks have allowed multiple wide receivers to hit double digit fantasy points (.5 PPR) in three of five games. The game flow along with the opponent should allow Kirk to post another big game in Week 7.

 

Detroit Lions

    • Week 6 Dropbacks: 32
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 37.6
    • Week 6 Variance: –5.6
    • Primary Impacted Player – Marvin Jones
    • Secondary Impacted Player – T.J. Hockenson

 

Marvin Jones has been an absolute bust this season as he has only hit double-digit fantasy points (.5 PPR) once in 2020. However, when you dive into his early season schedule it has been brutal for outside wide receivers. The best opponent the Lions have faced this year was the Green Bay Packers, who are 16th in the NFL in points allowed to outside WRs.

In this game Marvin Jones was shadowed by top cornerback Jaire Alexander. Alexander has held other top receivers like Calvin Ridley and Mike Evans to mediocre outputs.

Week 7 Recommendation

This week Marvin Jones will get his first blow up spot as the Lions travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons. The Falcons allow the fourth-most points to outside wideouts, so Jones has his first opportunity to go off in Week 7. Jones is not only a season long WR3, but his low price point in DFS makes him a great option this week.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

    • Week 6 Dropbacks: 25
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 35.4
    • Week 6 Variance: –10.4
    • Primary Impacted Player – JuJu Smith-Schuster
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Chase Claypool

 

Last week the Steelers blew out the Browns, which led to Big Roethlisberger only dropping back to pass 25 times. This still led to plenty of production as Chase Claypool and James Washington both got double-digit fantasy points. Unfortunately, not everyone was invited to the party as JuJu Smith-Schuster was a flat out bust.

The pros for Juju is last week he was the only wide receiver to run a route on every Big Ben dropback. This week he gets a great matchup versus a Titans defense that allows the fourth-most points per game to slot receivers.

Week 7 Recommendation

Fool the Opportunity Analysis once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well that is fantasy. I know JuJu flopped last week, but the Titans should be able to put up points at home which will force the Steelers to throw a lot more. This should lead to a much more productive day for JuJu as he is firmly on the WR3/Flex map in Week 7.

 

Opportunity Analysis Fades

 

Dallas Cowboys

    • Week 6 Dropbacks: 52.3
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 59
    • Week 6 Variance: 6.7
    • Primary Impacted Player – CeeDee Lamb
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Michael Gallup

 

Andy Dalton’s first start was a disaster, but prime-time Dalton has been a disaster for years. I do expect Dalton to play a lot better in this game, but that does not mean it will result in fantasy gold. In 2020 no team has faced less dropbacks per game than the Washington Football Team. This low pass volume has resulted in them being very tough against wide receivers.

Only four wideouts have hit double digits in .5 PPR on the season, and each of those receivers were the clear number one.

Week 7 Recommendation

If you can get away from CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup in Week 7 do it as Cooper is still the primary WR in Dallas. This low pass volume coupled with Dalton’s struggles makes this an Opportunity Analysis situation to avoid in DFS and season long leagues.

 

New Orleans Saints

    • Week 5 Dropbacks: 51
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 37.6
    • Week 6 Variance: 13.4
    • Primary Impacted Player – Tre’Quan Smith
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Jared Cook

 

The Last time we saw Drew Brees and the Saints, the offense had a season-high 51 dropbacks. This increase in pass volume allowed Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook to hit double-digit fantasy points. Heading into Week 7 with both Michael Thomas and Sanders out, it looks like Jared Cook and Tre’Quan Smith could be fantasy starts.

However, the Panthers have been very tough this season versus the pass game. Notable players who failed to hit double-digit fantasy points include Darren Waller, DeAndre Hopkins, and Allen Robinson.

Week 7 Recommendation

The Saints should be able to dominate the Panthers on the ground resulting in great days for Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. The passing game should do enough to get the win, but Brees has yet to show he can elevate his game in 2020 to compensate for the lack of weapons. Overall, I am fading the pass catchers and focusing on the ground game in Week 7.

 

Los Angeles Rams

    • Week 6 Dropbacks: 39
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 34
    • Week 4 Variance: 5
    • Primary Impacted Player – Cooper Kupp

 

The Chicago Bears have been solid all year against wide receivers, but over the last couple of weeks where they have been beat is on the outside. This includes games against D.J. Moore (5-93), Mike Evans (5-41-1), and Calvin Ridley (5-110). Where we have not seen much production is from the slot as no team has allowed less points per game from the inside than the Bears.

This tough matchup, along with the dip in pass volume with the Rams as big home favorites could mean a slower game for Cooper Kupp on the inside.

Week 7 Recommendation

Cooper Kupp is nothing more than a fringe WR3 this week as we should expect the Rams-Bears game to be a lower scoring affair. Some of the players I would start over him are included in the analysis.

 

Opportunity Analysis Week 7 Buys

 

Chris Godwin vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Noah Fant vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Henry Ruggs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kenny Golladay vs. Atlanta Falcons

Tee Higgins vs. Cleveland Browns

Allen Robinson vs. Los Angeles Rams

Keelan Cole vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Brandin Cooks vs. Green Bay Packers