26 Aug The Opportunity Analysis: 2021 Duds
The Opportunity Analysis: 2021 Duds
|Projected +/- |
|New England Patriots||501||171||589||88||259|
|New Orleans Saints||573||174||651||78||252|
|Los Angeles Rams||639||190||642||3||193|
|San Francisco 49ers||617||193||603||-15||179|
|New York Jets||572||118||612||40||158|
|New York Giants||594||134||600||6||140|
|Las Vegas Raiders||607||120||596||-11||109|
|Green Bay Packers||570||63||605||35||98|
|Los Angeles Chargers||689||136||647||-42||94|
|Kansas City Chiefs||697||87||655||-42||45|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||655||29||650||-5||24|
Before you go any further, if you haven’t read The 2021 Opportunity Analysis, click here. In this article, we are going to break down the opportunity analysis duds. A dud will be categorized as a player who won’t return value at their ADP while being on a team with the fewest “new available targets” according to the Opportunity Analysis in 2021.
Meet The OA Duds
Player: Dallas Goedert
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
New Available Targets: -35
Opportunity Analysis Team Rank: #32
The move to new head coach Nick Sirianni isn’t a bad thing for Dallas Goedert long term. The Colts finished 5th, 4th and 14th in tight end target percentage the three years under Sirianni. The issue comes this season due to the overall volume for the team and target competition. The Colts and Chargers offenses that Sirianni coached under were not nearly as pass heavy as the 2020 Eagles. This is represented by the -85 drop-back projection for 2021. This huge decrease in drop-backs provides the Eagles with -35 new available targets.
The next issue for Goedert is that Zach Ertz still plays for the Eagles. In the three full games with Jalen Hurts in 2020, Goedert and Ertz split targets 17 to 15, respectively. This led to Goedert only averaging 5.8 PPG over that stretch. Now Goedert could see even tougher target competition with rookie 1st-round pick DeVonta Smith and training camp standout Quez Watkins in the fold. This makes Goedert a full fade at his current TE9 ADP at the 9/10 turn.
Player: Michael Gallup
Team: Dallas Cowboys
New Available Targets: -24
Opportunity Analysis Team Rank: #31
The idea of having three fantasy-viable wide receivers seems inevitable in 2021 with teams like the Cowboys, Bengals and Steelers all having legit trios. However, it is much easier said than done to produce three top-36 wide receivers for fantasy football. This led us to take a look at Mike McCarthy’s history to see if it has been done before while he was a head coach or offensive coordinator. In the 20 years of calling plays, last season was the first time three players hit 100 targets in the same season under McCarthy. Prior to last season, only two other times did three players hit 90 targets in the same season. That was the 2011 and 2015 Packers. The third-highest player in PPG was Jermichael Finley at 9.5 PPG in 2011 and Richard Rodgers at 8.1 in 2015. Even though neither of those seasons would have produced a viable WR3, we did find one season that did. In 2012, Jordy Nelson got hurt after 12 games which allowed three Packers wide receivers to finish inside the top 36 on the year. Overall, one out of 20 seasons still doesn’t give us much optimism.
Now, Gallup’s target upside as the #3 pass catcher is slightly higher. It is important to note, he already saw over 100 targets last season in one of the most pass heavy offenses in football. Granted, 2020 was derailed by injuries, but Gallup finished outside the top-50 in PPG at 9.0. If we apply Gallup’s career averages with Dak to his targets from last season, his PPG will only jump to 9.7. Currently being drafted at WR41, Gallup is a safe pick, but we would prefer Corey Davis, Marvin Jones or Marquez Callaway in that range.
Player: Chase Claypool
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
New Available Targets: 23
Opportunity Analysis Team Rank: #29
Chase Claypool heading into his second season almost seems like a no-brainer. The guy is a freak athlete testing in the 90th percentile at 6’4 238 pounds. So what makes him an OA dud? Let’s dive into his 2020 season. Did you know that 31% of his fantasy points came in the three games that Diontae Johnson was hurt or barely played? If we just look at the 12 games that the Steelers had all their pass catchers, Claypool only averaged 9.1 PPG in those contests. That 9.1 PPG would have made Claypool the WR50 last season.
Let’s jump to 2021. The Steelers re-signed Juju Smith-Schuster and drafted Pat Freiermuth and Najee Harris. We can all agree that the rookies will command more targets than the 23 targets that are available, which means they will most likely impact the current players on the team. Also, with Freiermuth it is likely the Steelers run more 2 tight end sets in 2021. This would impact Claypool, who last season was a distant 4th in routes and was clearly behind Juju and Diontae Johnson when all three played together. Currently going as the WR27 at the 5/6 turn, players that we would consider over him include Robby Anderson and Tyler Boyd.
OA Duds – Quick Slants
Players: Curtis Samuel and J.D. McKissic
Team: Washington Football Team
New Available Targets: 16
Opportunity Analysis Team Rank: #30
Curtis Samuel is expected to practice this week, but has missed viable time with new quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. With minimal targets available and new weapons Dyami Brown and Adam Humphries it’s hard to justify him over players like Marvin Jones and Elijah Moore.
J.D. McKissic had a career year on the back of 110 targets in 2020. That production was directly related to Alex Smith’s check down tendencies. Don’t expect that to happen again with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Since 2018, Ryan Fitzpatrick has only given his running backs a 17% target share. That is nearly 11% lower than the target share the running backs had last season in Washington.
Players: Dolphins Wide Receivers
Team: Miami Dolphins
New Available Targets: 33
Opportunity Analysis Team Rank: #27
It doesn’t help the newcomers Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle that the Dolphins have kept every meaningful pass catcher on the roster heading into 2021. This is reflected in the extremely low 33 new available targets. Even if Tua Tagovailoa takes a big step forward in year 2, is hard to image enough volume to go around for both Waddle and Fuller to emerge with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki still on board.
Overall, none of these guys are going extremely high with their price tags ranging from WR 45-55 in ADP. However, we would prefer to take shots on players like Corey Davis who has looked the part as the #1 in New York. Another option is Marvin Jones with camp reports stating he is the clear #1 option for Trevor Lawrence. Or, the Saints new up and coming sleeper wide receiver Marquez Callaway who just dominated Monday Night Football.
Sources: expandtheboxscore.com, pro football focus, pro football reference, fantasy pros and fftoday
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