12 Aug The Opportunity Analysis: 2021 Introduction
OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS: 2021
| Team | 2020 Drop-backs | 2021 Available Targets | Projected Drop-Backs | Projected +/- Drop-Backs | New Available Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 644 | 360 | 593 | -51 | 309 |
| Tennessee Titans | 532 | 224 | 589 | 57 | 281 |
| New England Patriots | 501 | 171 | 589 | 88 | 259 |
| New Orleans Saints | 573 | 174 | 651 | 78 | 252 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 654 | 195 | 658 | 4 | 199 |
| Carolina Panthers | 623 | 200 | 622 | -1 | 199 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 639 | 190 | 642 | 3 | 193 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 617 | 193 | 603 | -15 | 179 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 657 | 156 | 660 | 3 | 159 |
| New York Jets | 572 | 118 | 612 | 40 | 158 |
| Houston Texans | 659 | 242 | 569 | -90 | 152 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 688 | 240 | 589 | -99 | 141 |
| New York Giants | 594 | 134 | 600 | 6 | 140 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 576 | 84 | 613 | 37 | 121 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 491 | 70 | 533 | 42 | 112 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 607 | 120 | 596 | -11 | 109 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 666 | 144 | 621 | -46 | 99 |
| Green Bay Packers | 570 | 63 | 605 | 35 | 98 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 689 | 136 | 647 | -42 | 94 |
| Chicago Bears | 673 | 124 | 632 | -41 | 83 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 685 | 195 | 572 | -113 | 82 |
| Denver Broncos | 614 | 62 | 629 | 15 | 77 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 572 | 39 | 590 | 18 | 57 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 697 | 87 | 655 | -42 | 45 |
| Buffalo Bills | 653 | 83 | 614 | -39 | 44 |
| Cleveland Browns | 553 | 4 | 585 | 32 | 36 |
| Miami Dolphins | 629 | 25 | 637 | 8 | 33 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 655 | 29 | 650 | -5 | 24 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 676 | 63 | 636 | -41 | 23 |
| Washington Redskins | 669 | 37 | 648 | -21 | 16 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 714 | 16 | 674 | -40 | -24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 711 | 50 | 626 | -85 | -35 |
OVERVIEW
[Column 1] 2020 Drop-backs – How many times a team dropped back to pass the ball in 2020.
[Column 2] 2021 Available Targets – How many targets are available in 2021 from players who are no longer on the team from 2020.
[Column 3] 2021 Projected Drop-backs – The average number of drop-backs the current Offensive Coordinator or Play-Caller’s teams have averaged over his career when he was calling plays (some assumptions are outlined above and later in this article).
[Column 4] Projected +/- Drop-backs – How many more/less drop-backs a team will see from 2020 based on their Offensive Coordinator or Play-Callers tendencies from prior years.
[Column 5] New Available Targets – This metric combines columns 2 and 4 to give a new projection of how many new opportunities or potential targets are available in 2021.
Before we discuss 2021, let’s take a look back. If you’re new to the Opportunity Analysis (OA) we suggest you check out the original article here. This will give you a breakdown of what we are doing and how we come up with the new available targets that we will touch on today.
Why use the OA vs. previous year drop-backs when determining available targets? Below is a breakdown of how many teams the OA was able to predict in drop-backs vs. previous year. We broke this down by showing how many times the OA vs. previous year was within one, three and four drop-backs on the season. As you can see from the chart below the OA is roughly 35%-40% more accurate than using previous year drop-backs. This includes a solid 37.5% of teams within one drop-back vs. only 15.6% if you used previous year’s numbers.
| Drop-Backs (DB) | Previous Year | Opportunity Analysis | OA Accuracy vs. Previous Year | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Teams | % vs. Total | Total Teams | % vs. Total | ||
| Teams within 1 DB per game | 5 | 16% | 12 | 38% | 140% |
| Teams within 3 DB per game | 15 | 47% | 21 | 66% | 40% |
| Teams within 4 DB per game | 20 | 63% | 27 | 84% | 35% |
2020 OA vs. ADP
The next thing we should talk about is how OA could have helped us project values, breakouts, sleepers and busts. Below are examples of how some of the players from the top three teams in OA’s new available targets faired vs. their ADP last season.
| MINNESOTA VIKINGS | ||
|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | POSITIONAL ADP | POSITIONAL PPG FINISH |
| Kirk Cousins | 21 | 13 |
| Adam Thielen | 9 | 9 |
| Justin Jefferson | 49 | 10 |
Minnesota topped the list in OA last season, and the pass game production didn’t disappoint. Kirk Cousins out-paced his ADP by eight spots while Justin Jefferson emerged as a legit top-10 option. Even with Jefferson emerging, Adam Thielen was still able to return value as his WR9 ADP.
| DALLAS COWBOYS* | ||
|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | POSITIONAL ADP | POSITIONAL PPG FINISH |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 14 | 4 |
| Ceedee Lamb | 38 | 20 |
| Michael Gallup | 31 | 39 |
| Dallas Tight End | 19 | 10 |
*4 full games with Dak Prescott
The second team was the Dallas Cowboys, who had a lost season after Dak Precott’s injury. However, before Dak’s injury it was clear a lot of Cowboys were going to beat their ADP as seen above. Mike McCarthy’s offense proved to have an influx of pass volume. This should continue to benefit the passing game in Big D in 2021.
| Washington Football Team | ||
|---|---|---|
| PLAYER | POSTIONAL ADP | POSITIONAL PPG FINISH |
| Terry McLaurin | 22 | 20 |
| Logan Thomas | 37 | 8 |
| J.D. McKiissic | Undrafted | 34 |
The third and final example is the Washington Football Team. Even with the struggles at QB, this team still provided great value in the draft. Even though Terry McLaurin didn’t blow his ADP out of the water, he still was a great pick in the 5th round. Meanwhile, both Logan Thomas and J.D. McKissic proved to be valuable assets via the waiver wire due the new available targets in 2020.
Updates from 2020
There were two things we learned from 2020 that we will apply differentially this season. The first, is the impact mobile QBs have on an offense vs. non-mobile QBs. This clearly needs to be a factor when determining the new available targets. Last year, we didn’t apply this logic to the Patriots when they moved on from Tom Brady to Cam Newton and it showed in how far off the metric was in 2020. This change has been made for 2021. The Texans with Tyrod Taylor and the Patriots with Cam Newton now take into account the QBs career drop-backs.
The second, is applying the analysis to rookies. Both Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb should have been highlighted more due to the new available targets on their respective teams. Overall, every scenario should be incorporated from #1s getting more work to take the next step, to a late-rounder who could be a sleeper because of the new available targets.
Feel free to use the chart provided in this article as a guide to understanding which players could be stepping into new available targets in 2021. Over the next few weeks, we at Expand The Boxscore will take a deeper dive into each team to tell you who we think could be values, sleepers and busts this season.
Resources: Expand The Boxscore, Pro Football Focus, Pro Football Reference, FFToday and Fantasy Pros
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