28 Nov The Opportunity Analysis – Week 12

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The Opportunity Analysis – Week 12

TeamWeek 11 Drop-backsSeason AverageSeason Variance
Denver Broncos3140.9-9.9
Washington Redskins2740.5-13.5
Chicago Bears*3543.7-8.7
Seattle Seahawks3843.3-5.3
New York Giants*3338.3-5.3
New Orleans Saints3036.2-6.2
Dallas Cowboys3446.7-12.7
Detroit Lions3939.6-0.6
Indianapolis Colts3736.50.5
Carolina Panthers3638.5-2.5
Baltimore Ravens3433.50.5
Philadelphia Eagles4043.6-3.6
Cleveland Browns2630.5-4.5
Jacksonville Jaguars3942.8-3.8
New York Jets3237.2-5.2
Pittsburgh Steelers4639.96.1
Las Vegas Raiders3334.7-1.7
Houston Texans4340.52.5
Los Angeles Rams5139.511.5
Green Bay Packers4137.53.5
Cincinnati Bengals5046.93.1
Atlanta Falcons4542.92.1
San Francisco 49ers*42384
Arizona Cardinals4740.26.8
Tennessee Titans3734.42.6
Kansas City Chiefs4842.55.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers4941.37.7
Minnesota Vikings3330.12.9
Los Angeles Chargers5442.511.5
Buffalo Bills*5141.19.9
New England Patriots42339
Miami Dolphins4535.59.5
*Week 10 Drop-backs


Opportunity Analysis Buys

Team: Miami Dolphins

    • Week 11 drop-backs: 45
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 35.5
    • Week 11 Variance: 9.5
    • Primary Impacted Player: DeVante Parker
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Mike Gesicki

Typically we look at drop-backs to see if a team will bounce back after a lower week. However, this time we turn to Ryan Fitzpatrick, so for this section we’ll call it the Ryan Fitzpatrick Opportunity Analysis…the title is a work in progress. Fitzpatrick should immediately infuse pass volume back into the Dolphins attack. This was immediately on display last week, with Fitzmagic nearly getting the Dolphins back into the game against Denver.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

The Jets over the past 5 weeks have allowed the second most points to WRs including monster games to Keenan Allen (16-145-1), Jakobi Meyers (12-169), and Tyreek Hill (4-98-2). This bodes well for Parker as he should be the primary player to capitalize on this increase in volume under Fitzpatrick, making him a solid WR2 this week.

Team: Philadelphia Eagles

    • Week 11 drop-backs: 40
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 44
    • Week 11 Variance: -4
    • Primary Impacted Player: Travis Fulgham
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Jalen Reagor

Since the Week 9 bye the Eagles pass game hasn’t looked good at all, struggling versus the Giants and Browns. This has led to back to back slow weeks for Travis Fulgham. Additionally, in Week 10 the Eagles faced top CB James Bradberry, and in Week 11 faced terrible weather conditions in Cleveland. Now back at home, Fulgham and company should be able to get back on track versus a Seattle team that allows the most points to WRs in 2020.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

The return of Alshon Jeffery hasn’t stopped the Eagles from featuring Fulgham, and he has still been second on the team in routes over the past two weeks. Last week versus Cleveland, Fulgham had to do most of his work against former first round pick Denzel Ward, and the prior week opposite James Bradberry. Now with a matchup versus a banged up Seattle secondary, look for Fulgham to bounce back in a big way in Week 12.

Team: Minnesota Vikings

    • Week 11 drop-backs: 33
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 30.1
    • Week 11 Variance: 2.9
    • Primary Impacted Player: Kyle Rudolph
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Justin Jefferson

The potential loss of Adam Thielen and Irv Smith open up opportunities, which is perfect for this analysis. In the only game this season that Irv Smith missed, Kyle Ruldolph saw a nice bump in routes running 29 of 37 (78%) Kirk Cousins drop-backs. This is much higher than last week where Rudolph ran 15 routes on 33 drop-backs (45%) with Irv Smith back in the lineup. The bump in usage should pay dividends as the Vikings take on a struggling Panthers defense facing the Tight End position.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

This week the Vikings take on a Panthers defense that has average over 40 drop-backs per game on defense during the past 5 weeks. This slight bump in pass volume has allowed notable tight ends T.J. Hockenson (4-68), Tampa Bay Tight Ends (5-82-2) and Travis Kelce (10-159) all produce at a high level vs. the Panthers over the past few weeks. If you’re a team hurting at tight end, Rudolph should flirt with TE1 value this week.

Opportunity Analysis Fades

Team: Buffalo Bills

    • Week 10 drop-backs: 51
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 41.1
    • Week 11 Variance: 9.9
    • Primary Impacted Player: Cole Beasley

The Bills are coming off a Week 11 bye after posting back to back monster drop-back games. Those contests came versus Seattle and Arizona, who are both #1 and #2 in drop-backs per game on defense in 2020. This led to big performances including Cole Beasley going for a solid 11-109-1 vs Arizona in Week 10. This, on top of the fact no John Brown in Week 12, should lead to a bump in usage for Beasley.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

This week the Bills face a Chargers DST that has faced the 3rd fewest drop-backs per game on defense over the past 5 weeks. This low drop-back volume has made the Chargers one of the toughest defenses for wide receivers, but most notably slot WRs. This had led to very poor performances from notable slot WRs including Tyler Boyd (4-33), Curtis Samuel (4-45), and Jamison Crowder (1-16). On top of all that the Chargers just lost Casey Hayward and got back top inside CB Chris Harris. This should lead to more success for Diggs and less opportunities for Beasley.

Team: Pittsburgh Steelers

    • Week 11 drop-backs: 46
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 39.9
    • Week 11 Variance: 6.1
    • Primary Impacted Player: Diontae Johnson

The Steelers offense has taken to the air over the past few weeks hitting 46 drop-backs 3 weeks in a row. This includes a comeback win versus the Dallas Cowboys, and dominant performances against the Bengals and Jaguars. This influx of pass volume has allowed multiple WRs to flourish, including Diontae Johnson who has seen over 10 targets per game over the past three weeks. However, before this three week stretch, the Steelers took on the Ravens and only saw 34 drop-backs in the contest. This led to a slower day for Diontae Johnson 1-6.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

Heading into week 12 this game will now be played on Tuesday with no Lamar Jackson for the Ravens. This doesn’t sound ideal as this will probably lead to a lower scoring game as the Ravens struggling to put up points vs. a tough Steeler defense. Finally, over the past 5 games no team has allowed less points to outside WRs than the Ravens which is drastic different from the Bengals, Jaguars and Cowboys who are all inside the top 7 since week 7. This makes Diontae Johnson just a fringe WR3 in week 12.

Team: Denver Broncos

    • Week 11 drop-backs: 31
    • 2020 season drop-backs per game: 40.9
    • Week 11 Variance: -9.9
    • Primary Impacted Player: The Broncos Offense

Before we say this is low hanging fruit, I started this article before the news that all three QBs will be out this week verus New Orleans. Even prior to the news of no QBs, it was going to tough sledding for both Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick as they would be squaring off against Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins on the outside. This duo has been formidable as the Saints have allowed the 11th fewest points to outside WRs since Week 7. The Broncos also have the toughest run game matchup on the slate making it easy to fade everyone in Week 12.

– Week 12 Recommendation –

Fade everyone….that is all.

Opportunity Analysis Buys for Week 12

Rashard Higgins vs. JAX

Damiere Byrd vs. ARI

Sterling Shepard vs. CIN

Nelson Agholor vs. ATL

Denzel Mims vs. MIA

Russell Gage vs. LV

Curtis Samuel vs. MIN

Jonnu Smith vs. IND

Robert Tonyan vs. CHI

Evan Engram vs. CIN