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Opportunity Analysis Week 8

The Opportunity Analysis Week 8

THE OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS WEEK 8

Team Week 7 Drop-backs Season Avg Season
Variance
Arizona Cardinals 52 40.6 11.4
Atlanta Falcons 44 44.3 -0.3
Baltimore Ravens* 33 32.5 0.5
Buffalo Bills 48 41.4 6.6
Carolina Panthers 31 38.1 -7.1
Chicago Bears 44 42.9 1.1
Cincinnati Bengals 53 48.1 4.9
Cleveland Browns 29 32.6 -3.6
Dallas Cowboys 32 49.4 -17.4
Denver Broncos 44 38.3 5.7
Detroit Lions 39 37.9 1.1
Green Bay Packers 34 36.8 -2.8
Houston Texans 48 41.1 6.9
Indianapolis Colts* 45 34.6 10.4
Jacksonville Jaguars 36 44.2 -8.2
Kansas City Chiefs 29 40.4 -11.4
Los Angeles Rams 35 34.1 0.9
Los Angeles Chargers 48 40 8
Las Vegas Raiders 41 38.5 2.5
Miami Dolphins* 32 37.7 -5.7
Minnesota Vikings* 37 32.5 4.5
New England Patriots 30 34.2 -4.2
New Orleans Saints 38 37.7 0.3
New York Giants 34 37.9 -3.9
New York Jets 29 39.9 -10.9
Philadelphia Eagles 48 45.9 2.1
Pittsburgh Steelers 50 37.8 12.2
Seattle Seahawks 57 42.8 14.2
San Francisco 49ers 27 36.7 -9.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45 40.1 4.9
Tennessee Titans 34 36.5 -2.5
Washington Redskins 28 39.9 -11.9
* Week 6 Drop-Backs

 

OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS BUYS

 

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

  • Week 7 Dropbacks: 27
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 37
  • Week 7 Variance: -10
  • Primary Impacted Player – Brandon Aiyuk
  • Secondary Impacted Player – Kendrick Bourne

 

Last week the 49ers straight up dominated the Patriots, beating them in Foxboro 33-6. This game was great for the 49ers as a team, but from a pass catcher perspective they had a season-low 27 dropbacks on the week. Granted they made the most of them as Brandon Aiyuk led the way with 6-115 on seven targets. However, outside of Aiyuk not many other players had a productive fantasy day through the air.

Week 8 Recommendation

Where do I start on why I love Aiyuk? Is it because he will go up against a Seattle team that has faced a league high 51.8 dropbacks per game this season? Or is it because no team has allowed more points to the wide receiver position this season than Seattle? Maybe it is because the 49ers will be down Deebo Samuel, allowing Aiyuk to be the true #2 behind George Kittle.

Now that I think of it, Seattle will be down one of their top cornerbacks  in Shaquill Griffin so it could be that too. I am not sure why, but as soon as I know I will let you know. Either way get him in your lineups this week.

 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

  • Week 7 Dropbacks: 30
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 34
  • Week 7 Variance: -4
  • Primary Impacted Player – James White
  • Secondary Impacted Player – Gunner Olszewski

 

The Patriots pass game over the past two weeks has been terrible, which led to a brief benching of Cam Newton in the second half of Week 7. This led to the Patriots only attempting 30 passes in a game where they trailed by multiple scores pretty much all day. Overall, it was a tough showing for all pass catchers as only Jakobi Meyers got over 50 yards receiving.

Week 8 Recommendation

Newton will look to bounce back this week without both his top wide receivers. This should open up opportunities for other players which includes James White. Back in 2018 when Julian Edelman missed the first four games, White had at least eight targets in three of those four contests.

Prior to last week, White had back-to-back games with eight targets so it is clear he is still a focal point of the pass game. Finally, with the return of Levi Wallace the Bills will have both starting outside cornerbacks active, so I expect the running backs to heavily involved this week as Damiere Byrd and Meyers struggle on the outside.

 

NEW YORK JETS

  • Week 7 Dropbacks: 29
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 39.9
  • Week 7 Variance: -10.9
  • Primary Impacted Player – Denzel Mims

 

In Week 7 Denzel Mims made his debut and made his presence felt right away securing 4-42 on six targets. That does not sound that impressive but it came on a day where Sam Darnold completed just 12 passes for 120 yards. I hate to say it, but it cannot get any worse right?

The Jets as a team are one of only three teams that target the wide receiver on over 70% of their pass plays this season. With both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman out, this should open up a lot of looks for Denzel Mims in Week 8.

Week 8 Recommendation

This week the Jets are 19.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs. This spread implies that this game could get ugly early, but at least we know the Jets will have to throw early and often. Mims plays the ‘Z’ receiver role in this offense, which means he will kick inside to the slot a decent amount.

This is a similar role that Keenan AllenStefon Diggs, and Henry Ruggs play – all who got double-digit fantasy points versus the Chiefs this season. I would treat Mims as a solid WR3 this week as he should pace the team in targets with no Crowder and Perriman.

 

OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS FADES

 

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

  • Week 7 Dropbacks: 45
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 40.1
  • Week 6 Variance: 4.9
  • Primary Impacted Player – Mike Evans

 

Mike Evans has had an odd season dealing with injuries, but his production is starting to be alarming. Evans has failed to hit 50 yards in five of seven games. This has been masked by him scoring a touchdown in five of the first seven games. However, over the past two weeks the Evans has not scored leaving fantasy owners with nothing to show for it.

It does not help that the Buccaneers have scored a combined 85 points in those two weeks.

Week 8 Recommendation

Heading into Week 8 the Buccaneers are double-digit favorities on the road against the New York Giants. This spread implies the Buccaneers should be able to dominate the game. The issue with this is that could lead to limited opportunities for the pass catchers.

Evans will draw the toughest assignment of all as he will square off against former division foe James Bradberry. Bradberry has held Evans to under 10 points in .5 PPR in three of the last four times they faced each other. This could lead to a slower day for Evans as Brady continues to dominate with his other pass catchers in Week 8.

 

BUFFALO BILLS

  • Week 6 Dropbacks: 48
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 41.4
  • Week 6 Variance: 6.6
  • Primary Impacted Player – Stefon Diggs
  • Secondary Impacted Player – John Brown

 

Stefon Diggs has been phenomenal this year as the Bills new unquestioned number one receiver. This has led the Bills passing attack to take the next step as well. Diggs has received eight or more targets in five of seven games, which has propped up his fantasy value even in tougher matchups.

This includes solid performances against the Chiefs (6-46-1) and the Rams (4-49-1). So what gives? Why is Diggs a fade based on the Opportunity Analysis?

Week 8 Recommendation

The Bills are favorites at home against a struggling Patriots defense and the aforementioned offense. This should lead to a much lower scoring game as both the Rams and Chiefs got the best the Bills defense. This drop in pass volume will hurt Diggs. Even though he scored in those tougher matchups he has failed to get over 50 yards in either game.

This makes him a risky play as he might draw shadow coverage from Stephon Gilmore this week (if he plays). If Gilmore is out due to his knee injury, Diggs becomes a much better option. However, Bill Belichick is known for taking away a team’s top option, so even if Gilmore is out I do not expect him to allow Diggs to dominate this week.

 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

  • Week 6 Dropbacks: 45
  • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 35
  • Week 6 Variance: -10
  • Primary Impacted Player – Trey Burton

 

I am going to make this quick as Trey Burton is not a starter in every league. In Week 6 the Colts were forced to throw as they fell behind early against the Bengals. This led to Rivers throwing over 40 times for just the second time all year. This led to an influx of pass volume that allowed both Jack Doyle and Trey Burton to be fantasy viable.

The Bengals defense also allows the most points to the tight end position, a recipe for success.

Week 8 Recommendation

This week the Colts are favored versus a Lions defense that is 31st in points allowed to the tight end position. This should lead to much lower pass volume day for the Colts as a whole, and with the opponent much stronger I would fade Trey Burton this week if you can. Tight ends I love include Noah Fant against the Chargers and Irv Smith Jr. versus the Packers.

 

OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS BUYS FOR WEEK 8

 

Chase Claypool vs. Baltimore

Marquise Brown vs. Pittsburgh

T.Y. Hilton vs. Detroit

Nelson Agholor vs. Cleveland

Tyler Boyd vs. Tennessee

Scott Miller vs. New York Giants

Jerry Jeudy vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Jarvis Landry vs. Las Vegas

Irv Smith vs. Green Bay

Jared Cook vs. Chicago

Noah Fant vs. Los Angeles Chargers