05 Feb Betting Blind: Super Bowl Six Pack
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF) will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from Draft Kings Sportsbook
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Congratulations! We made it through the entire NFL season. Except for a small hiccup with a barber, it looks like we will play every game on the schedule as well. Kudos to money trumping all.
Now that the Super Bowl is here, we are going to change things up a bit for the article. We avoided prop picks during the regular season, but the Super Bowl is different. I mean, other than the commercials, what else is there?
I will not give the exact odds for these plays as each site is different. This said, they will be plays you can get everywhere and not special promotions on one book. So, let us close out the season making some money together.
*** Shaq Barrett Over 0.5 Sacks ***
Kansas City is playing with five backup offensive linemen and the Buccaneers blitz at a higher rate than any team in the NFL. This means you can see a game in which Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady hit the ground more than once. With this in mind, we can take a bet that Shaq Barrett, last seasons sack leader, gets one here.
Mahomes can scramble a bit, but even he gets sacked. So, I like the odds here especially if you can get it at plus money. Besides that, in an offensive game, it is fun to root for at least a little defense.
*** Patrick Mahomes Under 333.5 Pass Yards ***
Mahomes is a passing monster and neither team runs the ball all that well. This is what we are told anyhow.
Mahomes has only seven games this season of more than 300 yards. Despite playing in eight playoff games up to this point, he has never thrown for this number. This includes the shootout against the Patriots in his first season. If the weather report holds up and there is rain, look for more short passing than long shots down the field. This will hinder the number even further.
Of course, with the offense we expect to see in this one I could look ridiculous and he could go for over 400. But you have to trust numbers at some point, and I will do so hear.
*** Tom Brady Over 2.5 TD Passes ***
I like this bet for two reasons. This is likely to be an offensive game as we all know, and the odds favor the under.
Most books have this at about +130. This is great value, especially if you agree that a high scoring game is in store. As we know, the run games leave a lot to be desired. We also know that just last game against the Packers, Tom Brady had three touchdown passes as the team put up 31 points.
The Super Bowl point total will likely be close to the same. When Tampa gets close to the goal line, we have seen their tendency to throw it to Mike Evans or flare it out to Leonard Fournette instead of pounding it up the middle. So chances are it happens again.
I like the matchup here of Brady against the Chiefs defense. With receivers like Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Antonio Brown along with the tight end duo of Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, chances are good he hits the over.
*** Mike Evans to Score Anytime TD ***
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are also good plays but their odds are so inflated, it hardly seems worth it unless you are parlaying them together.
Instead of taking Hill or Kelce at -170 you can instead take Evans at +110. He got the first touchdown last week against the Packers and in the first matchup between these teams, he had two touchdown catches on three total receptions while being hobbled by an ankle.
At 6’5″ Evans is the big bodied wide receiver Brady like to go to. Cameron Brate has come on strong including two touchdowns in the NFC Championship, but Evans still gets his first. When Brady trusts someone, he trusts them. This is certainly the case with Evans, and this will lead to a touchdown reception for him.
*** Tyreek Hill Over 91.5 Receiving Yards ***
Tampa Bay has a good defense. Let me rephrase, they have a good rush defense. They are lacking a bit on pass defense. We saw this in the first game between the teams when Hill torched them for 200 yards and three scores. In the first quarter. Getting this number than at 91.5 seems simple.
Of course, it is not that simple but I still like it. Not only is Hill the main receiver but he will still be matched up against the same DB he was in the last game. Carlton Davis could not cover him in a regular season game, so there is no reason to think he can in the most important game of his career.
I do not see Hill getting two 50-yard touchdown catches in the fist quarter like he did last time. I do see him getting to 100 during this game though. If the books are going to give me a number less than this, I will bite.
*** Second Half as Highest Scoring Half ***
Not only is this normally the case, but both of these teams are also not known to start strong.
We know Andy Reid likes to script the first 15 plays of a game. He is likely to try to slow play the first part of the game. This means a long drawn out drive which eats a lot of clock. For this reason, I also like the prop of over 5:31 minutes before the first score of the game. But it also makes it intriguing to take more second half points in the game.
A few other things to consider when taking this bet are the following. In nine previous Super Bowl games, Brady has only scored once in the first quarter, and that was a field goal. His teams are just as patient as the Chiefs and Andy Reid are. This will lead to a lower scoring first half than expected. The other factor to look at is the second half scoring trends for both of these teams.
The Chiefs led the league this season in point differential in the third quarter. This means coming out of half time and after adjusting, they can fire up some points. This also leads to another prop play of Chiefs -.5 in the third quarter. On the other hand, the Buccaneers love the fourth quarter. They are +81 this season in points scored in the fourth quarter. This is also the best mark in the NFL.
Both teams love the second half. Both teams start a bit slow. Both teams will adjust at half time and come out firing. It sounds like a solid play to me. And it might be my favorite of the entire six pack.
I hope we all made some money together this season and I hope it finishes out the same way in the Super Bowl. Whether you are rooting for the young gun in Patrick Mahomes or the best ever in Tom Brady, enjoy the game this Sunday. Most importantly. Stay safe and stay profitable.
Dominick is a lifelong resident of the Philadelphia area. Playing fantasy football for more than 20 years and writing for more than five, he has a vast knowledge of both the NFL and fantasy football. Despite his being blind, Dominick is a consistent ranker amongst FantasyPros experts, and always strives to be better than last season. Follow him on Twitter @EnvisionFF and read his weekly Best Bets articles during the season.