11 Dec Betting Blind: Week 14 Plays
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF) will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from Draft Kings Sportsbook
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So Betting Blind had another winning week in Week 13. It feels great to start the holiday season on a roll. Let us try to keep it going through the end of the year. There are not a lot of lines I love this week. But as always, we will find the best ones for you and make some money.
*** Three Star Play *** (9-4)
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: Saints -6.5
This is a game of two teams going in opposite directions. New Orleans is on a nine-game winning streak and poised for the top seed in the NFC. The Eagles are on a four-game skid and poised to gain a top eight draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. On top of the direction of both teams, the Eagles have given the reigns of the offense to rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts. This could lead to disaster against a Saints defense that is getting better each week.
The offense of the Eagles is dismal. The offensive line is in shambles, the wide receiver position is barren and the tight ends, once a plus, are now in the dregs along with the rest of the team. Miles Sanders has not been utilized correctly this season, something Doug Peterson said he wants to correct this week. Doing this against the Saints, who have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than two years, is easier said than done.
Pressure will come early and often for Hurts. Cam Jordan and company will make it a long and miserable debut. This will filter down to the rest of the offense as well.
In Taysom Hill’s first two starts, Latavius Murray was the man in the backfield with more than 14 touches in both games. After remembering that they have Alvin Kamara back there, Sean Payton and the Saints coaches limited Murray to five touches last week against Atlanta as Kamara got more involved.
This also had something to do with allowing Hill to actually throw the ball. With more than 275 yards passing and his first two career passing touchdowns, Hill showed he is good enough at quarterback to get New Orleans through until Drew Brees returns. He is not just a running back playing QB.
Michael Thomas has been slowed by injury this year. When on the field, he is still a top wide receiver in the NFL. He showed up last week, getting a massive target load and making the most of it with 105 yards on nine catches. Against an ailing Eagles defense, Thomas is in play again this week as his numbers could be even better.
There is a small concern that the Saints are looking towards their Week 15 tilt against the Kansas City Chiefs. But with a backup quarterback at the helm for New Orleans, they know anything can happen. I am confidently backing my Saints in this one.
Take the Saints -6.5
** Two Star Play ** (6-6-1)
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vikings +6.5
Minnesota has a lot to play for. After starting the season 1-5, the team is now 6-6 and in the thick of the playoff hunt in the NFC. Tampa Bay is coming off of their late bye. This means Tom Brady got his sleep and the team is well rested. Antonio Brown and Brady have had more time to work on their connection and the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin have had a chance to heal up a bit.
All of these things are true, but there is still something I do not trust about the Buccaneers. Their offense can be legitimately great, and so can their defense. But they have many flaws which can be exploited. Flaws I think the Vikings are going to be able to take full advantage of.
Minnesota has the best running back in the NFL this season in Dalvin Cook. In both the run and pass game he is a machine, a machine which is coming back to the Florida sun where he played college football. In this homecoming, he can easily gash the Buccaneers for multiple touchdowns and 100 yards.
Kirk Cousins has also been playing very well as of late. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are studs and Thielen has been scoring touchdowns at an incredible pace. One area the Buccaneers defense is weak is against the deep pass. Both Jefferson and Thielen can get deep down field and make plays. So I expect at least one of them to catch a long touchdown.
This is not to say the Vikings will win, but they will score. Against this Minnesota defense, so will Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers of late are not the same team they were to begin the season. They are not blowing teams out and have recently had to come from behind just to gain victories. There will be much of the same in this matchup. This means 6.5 points is too much to count on for Tampa Bay.
Take the Vikings +6.5
* One Star Play * (9-4)
Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders: Over 51.5 Points
Betting Blind was all over the Colts last week against the Texans. Lucky for me and you, it worked out. In this one, I like the Raiders coming off two bad weeks to have a bounce back at home.
The Raiders defense as seen against the Jets last week, leaves a lot to be desired. Philip Rivers is old and busted but he is doing everything in his power to get Indianapolis through to the playoffs. This means getting the ball down the field to Michael Pittman and T.Y. Hilton. Since having their bye in Week 7, The Colts have failed to put up at least 26 points one time.
They will score again here against a bad Las Vegas defense who will again be missing safety Jonathan Abrams. The Colts also have the sixth highest pace of play this season. On the Raiders side of the ball, we did not know what to expect this season. They have been better than expected and it will continue into this game.
Derek Carr has played very well considering his coach is constantly trying to get rid of him. Darren Waller continued a great season with a 13 catch, 200 yards and two touchdown game last week against the Jets. Add to this the unexpected production from Nelson Agholor who already has six touchdown catches, and the offense is good.
Josh Jacobs likely missing the game is a bit concerning, but not enough to take me off the total. The Colts defense, seen as great against the run, has been pretty bad as of late. In the last four weeks, they are giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing running backs. So, the Raiders will have the opportunity to move up and down the field. This makes points a plenty here.