20 Nov Betting Blind: Week 11
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
The struggles continued last week. I am upset about it for sure. I am still over the 58% threshold; I am still making some money. Either way, let us try again to get back on the horse and hope it does not buck us off again. Damn Nick Chubb.
*** Three Star Play *** (6-4)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders: Over 56 points
Andy Reid off a bye is as good a bet as it gets. I do like the -8 here but the Raiders are frisky so instead I will go with the points.
The last time these teams met the Chiefs ran the ball 46 times and the Raiders pulled out a hard fought and high scoring victory. It is revenge time. And where better to get it than in the death star.
Patrick Mahomes has had a week to relax and Andy Reid has had a week to come up with a game plan. The Raiders defense currently has 10 players listed on COVID/reserve list. That is bad in case you were concerned. This game could get ugly if majority of the players do not return.
Tyrek Hill and Travis Kelce will have a field day against this Las Vegas defense that has only been able to stop Cleveland due to weather, and the Broncos they are the Broncos. The Chiefs are far from the Broncos and they will prove it here by hitting a jackpot on Sunday night.
When Las Vegas has the ball, Derek Carr will lean on the pass game. Josh Jacobs is great when the game is close. I do not expect this one to remain close for long. This means the offense will turn to Henry Ruggs, Nelson Agholor, and Darren Waller to move the ball.
Carr has transformed this season from a check down artist to someone taking chances with the deep threats of Ruggs and Agholor. Agholor has averaged over 20 yards per catch on the season and he could certainly grab another long touchdown against Kansas City. There is a chance the Raiders hit 40 points again this week. Even so, The Chiefs may hit 50. So, with this in mind…
Take over 56 points
** Two Star Play ** (4-5-1)
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings: Over 47.5 points
Do we think Dallas learned how to play defense while on their bye week? No. Dallas and Houston are the only teams in the NFL to allow an average of more than 150 yards on the ground per game this season. Dalvin Cook is the best running back over the past month of the season. He may have 150 by halftime and allow Alexander Mattison to get his 100 in the second half.
On the Cowboys side, Andy Dalton is thankfully healthy again. After a cheap shot in Washington and a COVID scare, it will be good to get him back on the field. Although Minnesota has been playing better defense lately, Dallas has weapons to spare in this game. With Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, CeDee Lamb, and Dalton Schultz, Dallas will score.
Whether it be Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, or Justin Jefferson, expect the Vikings to score. They should get to 30 in this one, which means Dallas only needs to get to 18 points to cover. Garbage time still counts.
Take Over 47.5 points
* One Star Play * (7-3)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos: Dolphins -3.5
Denver is a bad team. Drew Lock is a bad quarterback, and now he is also hurt. This does not give me good feelings for the Broncos chances against the suddenly stout defense of the Dolphins. With all of the blocked punts and defensive touchdowns they are scoring the past month, you would think Frank Beamer took over the special teams. It looks like the 1990’s Hokies out there.
Tua Tagovailoa is not playing great, at least not to the level of fellow rookies Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. He also does not have to. Tua is doing what is asked of him. Unlike the other players, he has a defense that is helping him and a competent coaching staff as well. Sorry Anthony Lynn, I like you but, you are not the right fit for the Chargers.
The run game in Miami is not outstanding. It is a mish mash of parts. Those parts are certainly working though. Whether it be Myles Gaskin or now Salvon Ahmed, the Dolphins are getting the most out of who they have. Denver is middle of the pack when it comes to rush defense and this means that Miami will do enough to keep the Broncos honest on defense.
When the Broncos are on offense, they will be relying on an injured Lock. In a smash spot last week, he disappointed immensely before getting injured. The previous two weeks, pundits were thinking he had turned a corner. What they failed to realize was he did nothing special. He was playing against teams who were in the lead and playing prevent defense.
It has been said time and time again – the only thing a prevent defense prevents is winning. The coverages are cushier than a luxury comforter and stats build up. When the game is close Lock does nothing, which is what he will do this week against the cornerback duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.
The game will be close early. It starts 0-0. But soon enough Miami will pull away to win this by a touchdown or more.