24 Nov Betting Blind: Week 12 Plays
Each week of the 2020 NFL season Dominick Petrillo (@EnvisionFF), will provide his best plays of the week. These may be a line, a spread, or a variety of other plays. The only guarantee is they will not be a parlay. Please Stay tuned for the Betting Blind picks each and every Friday of the NFL season. Lines current as of the writing of the article. Make sure to check your sportsbook for any movement.
All Lines from DraftKings Sportsbook
Betting Blind finally got back on the winning side last week. We went 2-1 and look to keep it going this week. As we draw to the end of the season, we come to the most special football week of the year – Thanksgiving. Like normal, Dallas and Detroit play their traditional Turkey Day games.
This season we have a treat in the primetime matchup with Baltimore against Pittsburgh. At least there should be one good game. There will be a Thanksgiving play in the article this week, hence the earlier release.
As we move into the home stretch of the season, let us get ready for Christmas by making some money. There are actually a few more plays this week than I normally play, so look at the lines. There are some other nice ones out there this week.
*** Three Star Play *** (7-4)
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys: Over 46 points
It seems like every time I pick a game with Washington in it I get it wrong. Maybe this time will be different. I am going to go with my head instead of my heart this time. Personally, I hope both these teams lose but since that is not possible…
Alex Smith is the story of the season. I have written dozens of articles this year and he is mentioned in more than a few. This makes me want to choose Washington. But I cannot do it. There is something about Dallas playing on Thanksgiving.
Washington is coming off a win last week against an undermanned Bengals team that has lost Joe Burrow for the rest of the season. In the last meeting between these two rivals, the Football Team put a whipping on the Cowboys, 25-3. This was after knocking Andy Dalton out of the game and having to face the terrifying quarterback prospect of Ben DeNucci.
It will be different this time, not only because Dalton is back, but Ezekiel Elliott is coming off his best game of the season last week against the Vikings; Tony Pollard is also playing well. The run game is finally getting started and it will relieve the pressure from Dalton.
The Cowboys offensive line is still a mess and Washington has one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL. Zack Martin moved out to right tackle last week and it helped the line greatly. Expect this to happen again.
CeeDee Lamb has been having a remarkable rookie season and Amari Cooper is still a top wide receiver. They will be able to do some damage against the secondary of Washington. Cooper should do more than Lamb as Washington has given up the fourth fewest yards to the slot position, but if Michael Gallup actually catches a ball, this will open up even more opportunity for the talented Lamb as coverage changes.
Alex Smith has been throwing the ball with reckless abandon since returning. He has two games of 300 yards while only starting one of them. He would have done it again last week but after the injury to Joe Burrow lead Washington to run more against a poor defense. Terry McLaurin and J.D. McKissic are the only two receiving options on the team with consistent production, so we know where the ball is going.
This game is going to be much more competitive than the previous matchup. Both of these teams are going to move the ball on each other. The defenses for both, while playing better, are still exploitable.
Take over 46 points
** Two Star Play ** (5-5-1)
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills: Over 54 points
Two of my favorite quarterbacks take the field in this one.
We know both of these teams can score the ball. We also know both teams can give up points. The Chargers just allowed 28 to the Jets for crying out loud. There will be points in this one.
Josh Allen has been having an up-and-down season. Even his downs are higher than in previous seasons. Stefon Diggs currently leads the league in receptions and yards. The run game in Buffalo has been nothing special. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary have been disappointing based on preseason projections, but they are doing enough.
The team is 7-3 and is in first place in the AFC East. Playing at home after their tough loss and a bye week, look for them to ball out.
The Chargers are just snake-bitten. Justin Herbert is the only rookie quarterback in NFL history to have five games of three or more touchdown passes, yet he still has only two wins to show for it. Why? Coaching.
Anthony Lynn may be a good position coach but he is not a good head coach. There are no game management skills, and he has cost his team games time and time again. The Chargers should have blown out the Broncos and the Jets. Instead, they lost one and barely prevailed in the other. They also blew their earlier game against the Raiders. These types of things cannot continue to happen.
The run game in Los Angeles has been devastated since the injury to Austin Ekeler. Having gone through Joshua Kelley, Justin Jackson, and now Kalen Ballage, they are trying to make it work. Austin Ekeler may be designated to return from IR this week, but it is far from guaranteed that he plays Week 12.
Luckily for L.A., the pass game has Keenan Allen.
On 19 targets last week, Allen had 16 receptions, 141 yards and one touchdown. This is the second game this season in which he had at least 19 targets. Herbert loves Allen. He makes the contested catches which few others can, and he is a machine.
On the other side, Mike Williams has shown positive spurts while on the field. With another touchdown last week, he is showing why he was drafted in the top 10 despite a serious injury in college. Hunter Henry is, well Hunter Henry. Nothing special, but unless you have Kelce or Waller as your last name, this year has been dismal at the position.
He gets the job done and he will help spread the defense to allow Allen and Williams to feast.
Herbert and (Josh) Allen both have rocket arms, and there will be a lot of throwing in this matchup. Throwing usually means points and this is what Betting Blind projects in Buffalo on Sunday. Points.
Take over 54 points
* One Star Play * (7-4)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers -4
In another rematch game on Thanksgiving, Baltimore travels to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers.
Lamar Jackson has looked bad this season. Not only has his rushing regressed, so has his passing, moving from 208 passing yards per game to 192. It is tough for the Ravens to get any passing offense if the run game is not working. In this game, it likely will not be.
Both J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram have been placed on the COVID list. This means they will more thank likely be out for this Thursday. Gus Edwards and Justice Hill will be asked to do all the heavy lifting, something easier said than done against this brutal Pittsburgh defense that has been shutting down the best of the best.
The Ravens were able to put up over 200 rush yards on the Steelers earlier this year. In that game, they lost their biggest piece to that success – Ronnie Stanley. Since then, their run game is down. This does not mean good things for a team that has seemingly given up the past couple weeks. Maybe facing a division rival will be what they need, but the Steelers are just so good right now.
Ben Roethlisberger has been playing at an almost MVP level with 25 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is at least in the conversation.
Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and sometimes JuJu Smith-Schuster are all making plays on offense. Johnson had 15 targets last week and is consistently getting double-digit targets. Claypool on the other hand does a bit of everything. Not only does Claypool have eight receiving scores so far, but he also has two rush touchdowns, giving him 10 through 10 games.
I may not be a math wizard but, 10 divided by 10 means he has averaged one score per game as a rookie. This is great on an offense which needed to find a playmaker.
James Conner has not gotten going quite yet. With Calais Campbell out this week, he may this game. Either way the Steelers are the better team. It is always tough to take spreads in a division game, but I am doing it anyway.