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Opportunity Analysis Week 16

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 16

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 16

 

TEAM2020 Expected
Last 5
2020 Acutal
Last 5
Variance
Last 5
ARI38.738.80.1
ATL3942.23.2
BAL39.1455.9
BUF40.942.71.8
CAR37.938.70.8
CHI38.439.51.1
CIN40.434.8-5.6
CLE37.837.6-0.2
DAL37.834.8-3
DEN39.6400.4
DET38.534-4.5
GB40.642.82.2
HOU37.439.42
IND38.1423.9
JAX34.835.81
KC38.239.61.4
LAC37.732-5.7
LAR37.5391.5
LV40.536-4.5
MIA38.433.6-4.8
MIN41.833.6-8.2
NE40.438.8-1.6
NO42.643.71.1
NYG39.441.52.1
NYJ40.043.83.8
PHI37.636.8-0.8
PIT39.734.4-5.3
SEA39.743.84.1
SF41.338.5-2.8
TB40.151.211.1
TEN36.842.86
WSH41.845.23.4

 

Opportunity Analysis Buys

Team: Cleveland Browns

    • Opponent: New York Jets
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 5th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 3.8
    • Primary Impacted Player: Austin Hooper

 

Week 16 Recommendation

The news that the Browns will b down their entire wide receiver corps will spike the usage of the tight ends in Week 16. This is just in time for Austin Hooper owners, who could fall into a big day versus a Jets team that has allowed the most points to the tight end position in 2020.

The Jets have allowed a league-high 13 touchdowns to the position including at least one score in 6 straight games. This matchup along with the bump in usage should put Hooper on the TE1 map Week 16.

 

Team: Kansas City Chiefs

    • Opponent: Atlanta Falcons
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 10th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 3.2
    • Primary Impacted Player: Sammy Watkins

 

Week 16 Recommendation

This game looks to be a blow out on paper and it could easily become another monster game for Patrick Mahomes. This season the Falcons have been a major liability in the pass game while holding up well on the ground. This could make things easy for Andy Reid and company by allowing Mahomes to do what he does best.

Of course, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce should be in for big days; however, the matchup should allow Watkins to get in on the party. Over the past three weeks at least two wide receivers have hit double-digit fantasy points against the Falcons, so Watkins should be next in line for that production. This matchup makes Watkins a solid WR3 in Week 16.

 

Team: New York Giants

    • Opponent: Baltimore Ravens
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 3rd
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 5.9
    • Primary Impacted Player: Darius Slayton

 

Week 16 Recommendation

The news of Golden Tate being ruled out increases the opportunities for both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard in Week 16. The Ravens offense has been white hot over the past month, so their ability to put up points should force the Giants to keep up this week. The Ravens offense has directly affected the defense as they have allowed a lot of production to wide receivers over the past few week.

This includes big games to primary outside wide receivers Rashard Higgins (6-68-1), Michael Gallup (7-86-1), and Corey Davis (5-113). The news of Tate being out means Shepard will kick inside leaving more opportunities on the perimeter for Slayton, making him a solid WR3 this week.

 

Opportunity Analysis Fades

Team: Houston Texans

    • Opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 27th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): -5.6
    • Primary Impacted Player: Keke Coutee
    • Secondary Impacted Player: Chad Hansen

 

Week 16 Recommendation

The emergence of both Keke Coutee and Chad Hansen has been fantastic for fantasy owners over the past few weeks as both have been performing as low-end WR2/flex plays. This week’s opponent, however, has been taking the wind of the sails of fantasy wide receivers. Over the past five weeks only one receiver from each team has reached double-digit fantasy points in .5 PPR.

Even though the production has been there for all three wideouts, it safe to say Brandin Cooks is still the primary option. This decrease in pass volume makes it a tougher matchup for both of these pass catchers, making them risky starts in Week 16.

 

Team: Indianapolis Colts

    • Opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 28th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): -5.4
    • Primary Impacted Player: Zach Pascal

 

Week 16 Recommendation

Zach Pascal is coming off a week-winning 5-79-2 line against the Texans that might have a few people thinking of streaming him this week. However, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the toughest versus slot wide receivers. This includes holding down notable slot receivers Tyler Boyd (6-41) and Cole Beasley (5-41) well below their season averages.

Even with the Steelers struggles on offense they have still have not allowed multiple wide receivers to hit double digits in the same game since Week 9. This makes Zach Pascal a fade Week 16.

 

Team: Los Angeles Chargers

    • Opponent: Denvr Broncos
    • Opponent’s Dropbacks Per Game (Rank): 13th
    • Opponent’s Actual Dropbacks vs. Expected (Per Game): 0.4
    • Primary Impacted Player: Donald Parham

 

Week 16 Recommendation

The Broncos tight end defense has sprung a leak over the past three weeks allowing a touchdown to both Travis Kelce and Dawson Knox. As a whole this season the Broncos have shut down notable tight ends including Kelce (3-31), Darren Waller (3-37), and Hunter Henry (4-33).

This has made the Broncos the 9th-toughest defense against the position in 2020. Also, since Vic Fangio arrived last year Henry or any other Chargers tight end has not produced much against the Broncos, failing to top 50 yards in any start. Do not get cute with Donald Parham as a streamer this week.