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Opportunity Analysis Week 10

The Opportunity Analysis – Week 10

THE OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS – WEEK 10

TeamWeek 9 Drop-backsSeason AverageSeason
Variance
Arizona Cardinals3239.5-7.5
Atlanta Falcons3842.7-4.7
Baltimore Ravens2932.6-3.6
Buffalo Bills48408
Carolina Panthers5339.313.7
Chicago Bears5644.711.3
Cincinnati Bengals*3846.9-8.9
Cleveland Browns*2932.1-3.1
Dallas Cowboys4248.1-6.1
Denver Broncos5541.113.9
Detroit Lions4840.47.6
Green Bay Packers3337.3-4.3
Houston Texans4041-1
Indianapolis Colts44368
Jacksonville Jaguars4143.9-2.9
Kansas City Chiefs4741.95.1
Los Angeles Rams*6337.825.2
Los Angeles Chargers4741.95.1
Las Vegas Raiders2635.9-9.9
Miami Dolphins3435.5-1.5
Minnesota Vikings2128.9-7.9
New England Patriots3633.72.3
New Orleans Saints3738.3-1.3
New York Giants3938.90.1
New York Jets2637.8-11.8
Philadelphia Eagles*3444.4-10.4
Pittsburgh Steelers4638.47.6
Seattle Seahawks46433
San Francisco 49ers3637.6-1.6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers4140.40.6
Tennessee Titans2534.6-9.6
Washington Redskins41401
*Week 8 Drop-Backs

 

OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS BUYS

 

Los Angeles Rams

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 63
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 38
    • Week 9 Variance: +25
    • Primary Impacted Player – Rams Wide Receivers

 

After a Week 8 where the Rams trailed big against the Miami Dolphins, Jared Goff dropped back to throw a season-high 63 times. Typically, we would call this a red flag heading into their next matchup, but this week the Rams take on a Seattle defense that has faced the most dropbacks per game in 2020.

This has led to no team allowing more fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Seattle could be down two starting cornerbacks which means fantasy fireworks for the Rams receivers.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp should be in your lineups this week, and I am sure you do not need me to tell you otherwise but just in case you do… start Kupp and Woods. The player I want to talk about is Josh Reynolds. The Rams have gone back to their heavy three-receiver personnel over the past few games, which has allowed Reynolds to see his snap share skyrocket.

This has led to back-to-back games of at least eight targets. This matchup should allow Reynolds to return WR3 value this week.

 

Buffalo Bills

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 48
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 40
    • Week 9 Variance: +8
    • Primary Impacted Player – John Brown
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Cole Beasley

 

I must be losing my mind here as this article is flying right in the face of everything I believe. Once again we are calling a pass game a buy after a high-volume passing week. But before you stop reading hear me out. After a big game last week, the Bills will take on an Arizona team that has seen a league high 47.3 dropbacks per game over the past five weeks.

This has a lot to do with the Cardinals’ inability to run the ball on the other side.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

Stefon Diggs will draw the toughest assignment of the day as he will see a lot of Patrick Peterson. Diggs is still a solid WR3, but this should open up opportunities for the other pass catchers. When Peterson shut down D.K. Metcalf in Week 7, David Moore and Tyler Lockett went for 18-254-3. That is more than enough to go around for John Brown to be a WR2, Cole Beasley to be a WR3, and Gabriel Davis to flirt with WR4 value in Week 10.

 

Denver Broncos

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 55
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 41
    • Week 4 Variance: +14
    • Primary Impacted Player – K.J. Hamler

 

Last week we saw K.J. Hamler’s role skyrocket as he was third on the team in routes, which led to him seeing the second-most targets with 10 on the day. It is important to point out that level of pass volume will not keep up, but his 20% target share was eye-opening.

This week the Broncos take on the Raiders, who over the last five weeks have seen the seventh-most dropbacks per game on defense. This influx of pass volume has resulted in multiple pass catchers getting double-digit fantasy points in two of the last three games.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

No team has allowed more production out of the slot in 2020 than the Raiders. This is important as Hamler did all his damage on the inside, running 87.8% of his routes in the slot and getting all 10 of his targets from that position. More impressive was Hamler’s 6-75 line came from a Falcons defense that is 21st in points allowed to inside wideouts, which means Hamler could be in for a big day in this one.

 

Opportunity Analysis Fades

 

Carolina Panthers

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 53
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 39
    • Week 4 Variance: +14
    • Primary Impacted Player – Curtis Samuel

 

Curtis Samuel has been white-hot the last three weeks, getting in the end zone in all three contests. This includes two rushing touchdowns in Weeks 7 and 9. In Week 9 we finally saw the receiving production that fantasy owners want as he had his first game over 55 receiving yards this season.

That being said, Week 9 was a big outlier from a volume perspective for both Samuel and the Panthers.  Last week was only the second time all year that the Panthers went over 40 dropbacks in a game. It is important to note that the other time was against Tampa Bay in Week 2.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

The last time these two teams played, it was a blow out by the Buccaneers. Even with all the additional pass volume Samuel only combined for 39 yards on the day. The Buccaneers are much tougher against inside wide receivers, as the opposing team’s primary slot receivers have not been over 50 yards in any game this season.

This should mean more opportunities on the outside for Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, similar to Week 2.

 

Denver Broncos

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 55
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 41
    • Week 4 Variance: +14
    • Primary Impacted Player – Jerry Jeudy
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Tim Patrick

 

Now why is Hamler a buy and Patrick and Jeudy are fades? It is how you beat the Raiders. This season the Raiders have been the worst team versus slot receivers, but one of the best against outside pass catchers. This includes holding Mike Evans (2-37), D.J. Moore (4-54), and John Brown (4-42) to well under their season averages.

Last week’s opponent was the opposite, as the Falcons have allowed the most points to outside wideouts over the past five weeks while only 23rd versus the slot over that same time.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

Jeudy’s monster game was impressive, but this week versus the Raiders he is best viewed as a fringe WR3. As for Patrick, his touchdown last week saved his fantasy day. It might be best to look elsewhere if you need wide receiver help in Week 10.

 

Detroit Lions

    • Week 9 Dropbacks: 48
    • 2020 Dropbacks Per Game: 40.4
    • Week 4 Variance: +7.6
    • Primary Impacted Player – Marvin Jones
    • Secondary Impacted Player – Danny Amendola

 

Last week both Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola got it done for fantasy as the Lions trailed big against the Vikings. This forced Stafford and company to throw 48 times. This increased pass volume along with the solid matchup vs. the Vikings who allow the 7th most points to WRs over the past 5 week allowed both Amendola and Jones to finish with double digit fantasy points.

Opportunity Analysis Week 10 Recommendation

This week the Lions are favored against a Washington Football Team that has as seen the second fewest dropbacks per game over the last five weeks. This has led to the Washington Football Team allowing the second fewest points to wide receivers this season. This low pass volume projection along with the Lions being favored should mean less opportunities for both Jones and Amendola, making both uninspiring WR3 options this week.

 

Opportunity Analysis Buys Lists

 

Rashard Higgins vs. Houston Texans (If weather permits)

Jarvis Landry vs. Houston Texans (If weather permits)

Jalen Reagor vs. New York Giants

Mike Evans vs. Carolina Panthers

Tyler Boyd vs. Pittsburgh Steelers