28 Jun AFC West Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on AFC West Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
AFC West Projections
A case can be made that this division will produce the top two QBs in the entire league, which would also mean there are some nice receiving options as well. Not only do Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert call the West home, but two of the best Tight Ends also do in Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. Some expected names such as Tyreek Hill, and Keenan Allen can also be found here, but there are a few ultra talented players on the verge of potential major breakouts. Look no further than the Chargers Mike Williams who has everything set up in his favor. These projections remained unbiased throughout, so to see how some of these players (like Williams) fared was really eye opening.
The biggest value for fantasy, from what these numbers say, is second year RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He has the draft capital, works in an explosive offense, and the team just loaded up on offensive linemen over the offseason. Andy Reid who is tied to finding LeSean McCoy made this his guy, and the rookie numbers in total were better than the feeling he left. That sour taste could make CEH the player most commonly found on championship teams in 2021.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Patrick Mahomes (QB 1), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB 14), Tyreek Hill (WR 1), Travis Kelce (TE 1)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Justin Herbert (QB 6), Austin Ekeler (RB 9), Keenan Allen (WR 8), Mike Williams (WR 53)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Javonte Williams (RB 35), Courtland Sutton (WR 32), Jerry Jeudy (WR 38), Noah Fant (TE 8)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Josh Jacobs (RB 19), Henry Ruggs (WR 49), Darren Waller (TE 2)
- Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
- A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (25th in 2018, 30th in 2019) & Baseball (7th in 2018 & 2019, 9th in 2020), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.