18 Jun NFC East Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on NFC East Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
NFC East Projections
If everything breaks right, the NFC East looks like it will be back as a formidable division. A lot hinges on the healthy return of Dak Prescott, which would lead to Dallas winning the crown. Things will be close, and the attention these teams have paid to bolstering their rosters will pay off.
This is a great division for Running Backs in fantasy headed by the usual suspects Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley, but Antonio Gibson is entering that top level as well. Even with all of the defense that’s been added, there should be plenty of offense. A trio of Cowboys could flirt with 1,000 yards receiving, and Jalen Hurts looks poised to run amuck with a firm grasp on the starting role. His reunion with DeVonta Smith will be a welcome site, and vindication for those who doubt the 2021 Heisman Trophy winner.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Dak Prescott (QB 4), Ezekiel Elliott (RB 6), Amari Cooper (WR 15), CeeDee Lamb (WR 16), Michael Gallup (WR 50)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Saquon Barkley (RB 5), Kenny Golladay (WR 21)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB 26), Antonio Gibson (RB 12), Terry McLaurin (WR 12), Logan Thomas (TE 6)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Jalen Hurts (QB 10), DeVonta Smith (WR 51), Dallas Goedert (TE 9)
- Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
- A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (25th in 2018, 30th in 2019) & Baseball (7th in 2018 & 2019, 9th in 2020), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.