17 Jun NFC West Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on NFC West Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
NFC West Projections
The NFC West shapes up to be the toughest division heading into the 2021 season. I have all four teams projected to have a winning record, with three making the playoffs. Someone is going to get left without an invitation, and I feel that will be the Seattle Seahawks falling just short with a 9-8 mark.
There are plenty of fantasy weapons in this division, with Matthew Stafford and Russell Wilson airing it out and supplying four 1,000 yard receivers between them. I think Cam Akers and Chris Carson will be true workhorse backs, and the best of the litter for your weekly needs. If you’re looking for rookies, Niners RB Trey Sermon and Seattle WR D’Wayne Eskridge look to be in line for good fortunes.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Raheem Mostert (RB 23), Trey Sermon (RB 53), Brandon Aiyuk (WR 23), Deebo Samuel (WR 34), George Kittle (TE 2)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Matthew Stafford (QB 12),
Cam Akers (RB 11), Robert Woods (WR 17), Cooper Kupp (WR 20), Tyler Higbee (TE 17), Xavier Jones (n/a)
Ouch!! We know injuries are going to happen. It’s not an if, but a when. Even still, we cringe when the big names go down… especially the fantasy darlings. Cam Akers has suffered a torn achilles and will miss the 2021 season. The good news for the Rams is that it happened before training camp even begins, so there is time to scour for a replacement and get them up to speed. My personal belief is that Xavier Jones is going to get a long look at being able to handle a larger workload. I think this is a bump for Darrell Henderson, but pump the breaks on just assuming Akers level production. I hope I’m wrong, because I do like Henderson, I just don’t see it. If a veteran, ie Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, or similar, is able to be signed, I believe Henderson is more likely to remain in his pre-Akers role than just fill in the void. This is a wait and see work in progress right now.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Kyler Murray (QB 3), DeAndre Hopkins (WR 4)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Russell Wilson (QB 7), Chris Carson (RB 20), Tyler Lockett (WR 24), D.K. Metcalf (WR 5)
- Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
- A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (25th in 2018, 30th in 2019) & Baseball (7th in 2018 & 2019, 9th in 2020), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.