21 Jun NFC South Projections
This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on NFC South Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.
NFC South Projections
Some excitement abounds in the NFC South with the return of CMC, the retirement of Drew Brees leading to the potential resurrection of Jameis Winston, and the world wondering just how long Tom Brady can continue surprising us. The South always seems to split their matchups making this a close and even division, and as of now the defending Super Bowl champs seem to be the most complete, and ultimately will rise well above the pack. Some promise is on the horizon for the defenses, in particular the Carolina Panthers, but I think we are still a year away from seeing that all come to fruition.
The biggest storyline from this division just may be in the progression of rookie Tight End Kyle Pitts. Longtime Falcon stalwart Julio Jones forced his way to the AFC, paving the way for Pitts to have an enormous role right out of the gate. Either you hold firm with history which suggests to be patient with a rookie TE, or you get super aggressive (like myself), and trust that this truly is a unicorn who can provide a distinct advantage for your fantasy rosters from day one. Even with a more conservative update to these projections, Pitts easily should be drafted as a Top 5 Tight End. The sky is the limit for this rare prospect.
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Tom Brady (QB 9), Ronald Jones (RB 29), Mike Evans (WR 14), Chris Godwin (WR 18), Antonio Brown (WR 44)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Christian McCaffrey (RB 1), D.J. Moore (WR 25), Robby Anderson (WR 36)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Mike Davis (RB 27), Calvin Ridley (WR 5), Kyle Pitts (TE 6)
Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Alvin Kamara (RB 3), Michael Thomas (WR 10), Adam Trautman (TE 17)
- Andy is a jack of all trades in the Fantasy Sports industry, covering football, baseball, and the NFL Draft. He has written, edited, podcasted, and produced over 1,000 videos for his various series, in addition to dozens of guest appearances and collaborative pieces.
- A top ranker on Fantasy Pros for both Football (25th in 2018, 30th in 2019) & Baseball (7th in 2018 & 2019, 9th in 2020), avid fan of mining for MLB prospects, and former D1 College hoops player, Andy is a native New Yorker, who has served as a firefighter in the FDNY for the past 20 years and counting.