NFC South Team Projections

NFC South Projections

This year I decided to get into the projections game, and today the focus is on NFC South Projections. My process is still evolving, but based off comparisons I have seen to other projection models, feel like these are in the ball park. The formula is a blend of play calling tendencies from recent seasons by those in charge of the offense (Head Coach and/or Offensive Coordinator) + individual player performances + my assumptions on how much of a role each player will have within the offense. These assume healthy seasons, a 17 game schedule, and there is a 5% margin for error – meaning the totals add up to 95% of what I project overall for each team. For rookies and second year players I was able to utilize the XTB College Statistics Database to get more detailed individual results. These will continue to update as more is learned over the summer during training camps. I am happy to show and share all of my work upon request, pictured is a glimpse at the process. Hoping these will help paint a better picture for you.

Team Projections

NFC South Projections

Some excitement abounds in the NFC South with the return of CMC, the retirement of Drew Brees leading to the potential resurrection of Jameis Winston, and the world wondering just how long Tom Brady can continue surprising us. The South always seems to split their matchups making this a close and even division, and as of now the defending Super Bowl champs seem to be the most complete, and ultimately will rise well above the pack. Some promise is on the horizon for the defenses, in particular the Carolina Panthers, but I think we are still a year away from seeing that all come to fruition.

The biggest storyline from this division just may be in the progression of rookie Tight End Kyle Pitts. Longtime Falcon stalwart Julio Jones forced his way to the AFC, paving the way for Pitts to have an enormous role right out of the gate. Either you hold firm with history which suggests to be patient with a rookie TE, or you get super aggressive (like myself), and trust that this truly is a unicorn who can provide a distinct advantage for your fantasy rosters from day one. Even with a more conservative update to these projections, Pitts easily should be drafted as a Top 5 Tight End. The sky is the limit for this rare prospect.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Projections

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Tom Brady (QB 9), Ronald Jones (RB 29), Mike Evans (WR 14), Chris Godwin (WR 18), Antonio Brown (WR 44)

Carolina Panthers Projections

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Christian McCaffrey (RB 1), D.J. Moore (WR 25), Robby Anderson (WR 36)

Atlanta Falcons Projections

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Mike Davis (RB 27), Calvin Ridley (WR 5), Kyle Pitts (TE 6)

New Orleans Saints Projections

Fantasy Targets (PPR ADP): Alvin Kamara (RB 3), Michael Thomas (WR 10), Adam Trautman (TE 17)